Automobile industry

Analysis of China’s automobile export in 2020 From China Automobile Circulation Association

The following is the Analysis of China’s automobile export in 2020 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.

Since 2017, China’s domestic auto market has been on a downward trend, and the negative growth rate has been increasing. However, since 2017, China’s automobile export market has performed relatively well. In 2018 and 2019, China’s automobile export has a positive growth rate of 6%. From January to December 2020, China’s automobile export has declined by 13%. In December, under the impact of the overseas epidemic, China’s automobile export has increased by 15%. The pressure on the export market has gradually improved.

The core driving force of export market growth is still the growth space of passenger cars, especially in the Middle East and Africa, where the export performance is relatively strong, while Europe, Mexico and other markets are relatively strong in the near future. The overall performance of new energy vehicle export is strong. Although the export of low-speed new energy vehicles has decreased greatly, the export of new energy vehicles to Europe has increased rapidly, and SAIC has a strong performance.

1. Characteristics of automobile export growth

After the sharp decline in the world economic downturn in the previous 13-15 years, the export growth in 2016-2020 gradually stabilized and improved, and the current monthly export volume maintained at the average monthly level of about 80000-100000 units. The export from January to December in 2020 will reach 1.06 million units, and the export in December will also reach 120000 units, which is also impacted by the epidemic situation. There is still a huge space for the development of automobile export in the future.

Exports in December increased by 15% year-on-year, much better than the 13% decline from January to December. Therefore, it has great potential for export recovery under the international epidemic situation.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle export

From the monthly trend, the export in recent years still presents seasonal characteristics, showing the peak drop trend of the roller coaster in summer, but it will change to a V-shaped trend in 2020. From March to December in 19 years, the export was at the low level over the years. In 20 years, the export of automobile market started strongly. From February to March, the export was low. From April, the export was still strong, but from May to June, the trend was extremely low. Under the epidemic situation, from July to December in 2020, the export trend is relatively strong compared with that of domestic, forming the characteristics of slow recovery abroad.

3. Structural characteristics of automobile export

In 17-19 years, the export car market grew relatively in the same period. From January to December 2020, the total vehicle export (including chassis) will be 1.06 million units, with a growth rate of – 13%. This year’s export performance is better than that of low-priced motor vehicles. This year, the traditional bus exports are very poor, while the traditional and new energy bus exports are both low growth and negative growth, which also shows that our exports are still encountering bottlenecks.

From January to December, the customs exported 1.06 million passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, of which 360000 were exported in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

4. Export structure characteristics of new energy vehicles

In 2017-2019, the export volume of new energy vehicles is large, but the passenger cars are mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual volume is small.

In 2020, new energy will perform well, and plug-in hybrid models should also be re sold products of joint ventures.

The export performance of new energy buses has improved, with the average export of 30-60 buses in the second half of the year. In the first quarter of 2020, the monthly average is 40 units. The export of new energy buses increased slightly in the second quarter. The growth of new energy in the third quarter was larger than that in the fourth quarter.

2、 Automobile overseas market pattern

1. Regional trend analysis

In 2017-2020, exports are gradually picking up, mainly contributed by Africa and Europe. Recently, the market share of Europe has increased significantly. In the first two years, the export to North America has continued to increase significantly, but it has dropped in the near future. Africa and South America showed a slight pick-up.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle export

However, this year’s main vehicle exports are mainly in Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Egypt, the United States and other markets, while the Russian market, Sweden and Australian markets are relatively strong. Even this time, the Belgian market has become the core market of the increase.

However, the European market with relatively large increment in December is very strong, such as Belgium, Russia and Norway.

On the whole, the epidemic has a certain impact on the export of China’s automobile market. However, the stagnation of overseas production has led to a certain increase in China’s exports to developed countries.

The overseas base effect of automobile export is not ideal. In 2020, the automobile export is mainly realized in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries. In the early stage, the export of Iran, Mexico, Bangladesh and other countries was promoted, and these countries lost a lot under the epidemic. Algeria, North Korea and other countries also suffered export losses. The main increment comes from relatively developed countries.

4. Analysis on export characteristics of new energy vehicles

China’s export of new energy vehicles mainly increased in the European market and North American market, especially in the European market with an increase of 50000 units. The Western Europe, northern Europe, Central Europe and other markets are very good.

3、 Export trend of passenger cars by category

1. Passenger car export by volume

The emission of passenger car exports is mainly in the range of 1.5-2 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China’s independent passenger car products. However, the product grade of electric vehicles is low, and the export demand is unstable. In 17 years, the proportion of passenger cars is 8%, in 19 years, 26%, and in 2020, 23%. The export of low-cost micro electric vehicles is super strong. The export of low-cost micro electric vehicles improved greatly in December.

2. Structural characteristics of passenger car export

The main growth market of China’s passenger car exports during the epidemic in December was developed countries in Europe and the United States. Exports to the United States performed strongly. Swedish has a strong German market.

4、 Truck export trend by category

1. Truck exit

The proportion of truck export in the automobile export market continues to shrink, from 21% in 2017 to 18% in 2019. In 2020, it will rise to 18.5%. The main force of the freight car market is the freight cars of less than 5 tons, and the heavy truck freight cars of more than 20 tons also have a certain demand in general, but there is not much obvious growth in the near future. One belt, one road construction in the future, will boost exports of China’s freight cars.

2. Changing characteristics of truck export market

The overall performance of truck export market in recent years is average. The decline of truck export in 16 years is still serious. The recovery performance in 17-19 years is not very strong, and the performance in 2020 is average. Among them, Iran, Algeria and other markets are in decline, while Vietnam, Chile and the Philippines are relatively good. Among them, Vietnam market is the core main market of China’s truck export, and Algeria market is shrinking rapidly this year, which shows that the overseas market of truck export is still not stable enough.

5、 Export trend of passenger cars by category

1. Bus export performance

The export of bus market is mainly light passenger. Only this year, the large passenger market is relatively shrinking, the light passenger market is gradually strengthening, and the total volume of bus market is relatively shrinking in the auto market. In 2020, the number of light passengers will drop greatly.

2. Performance of bus exporting countries

The main export markets of passenger cars are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other markets, which have small capacity, large fluctuation and high trade risk. A few years ago, Vietnam’s demand shrank sharply, and the export performance of Angola and North Korea also fluctuated, which is also a distinctive and complex trade pattern. Bus exports to developed countries are less, which does not reflect the real advantages of bus. China Automobile Circulation Association: April 2020 China import automobile market monthly report China Automobile Circulation Association: March 2020 domestic narrow sense passenger car market sales reached 1.045 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4% China Automobile Circulation Association: in the first quarter of 2020, 57 new authorized 4S stores of luxury brands will be added 41 online 4S stores: China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of luxury car market in the first half of 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: Top 100 auto dealer groups in 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: Auto Trade data of Beijing in the first quarter of 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: Auto Trade in Beijing in the first half of 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: Top 100 used car dealers in 2020

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