Automobile industry

Analysis of national passenger car market in February 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association

The following is the Analysis of national passenger car market in February 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.

1. Review of the national passenger car market in February

Retail: in February 2021, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.177 million, with a year-on-year increase of 371.9% in February 2020, the most affected by the epidemic, and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in February 2019.

Retail sales in February decreased by 45.5% compared with January, which was basically the same as the average month on month growth over the years. Due to the late Spring Festival this year and the popularity of new energy vehicles, the car market has a good growth base in February, and the demand of traditional car market is not hot.

From January to February this year, the total retail sales reached 3.338 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%, achieving a record high growth rate in the same period since the launch of retail data statistics by the passenger Federation in 2005. This is mainly due to the low base effect of the cumulative retail decline of 41.0% in the national passenger car market from January to February 2020. At present, the consumption characteristics of the annual car market are still small and medium-sized cities and county and township markets before the Spring Festival, which are the main force of the increase in car purchase. Although the tide of returning home to buy cars before the festival from January to February this year is not strong, the flow of exhibition halls is good during the festival, and the market recovery speed after the festival is faster than in previous years. Because the rebound after the festival is not prominent in retail sales, the overall car market in February is not warm. From January to February this year, retail sales were basically flat compared with the same period in 2019, and the performance was weaker than the trend in the second half of 2020, mainly due to the impact of the county and township market downturn caused by the absence of the Spring Festival homecoming tide.

In February, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 485% year-on-year, and decreased by 45% month on month compared with January. However, compared with the growth of 36% in February 2019, the retail sales of luxury cars continued to maintain a strong growth feature, and the demand for high-end replacement reflecting consumption upgrading was still strong.

In February, the retail sales of independent brands increased by 376% year-on-year, decreased by 45% compared with January, and decreased by 6% compared with February 2019. The wholesale market share of independent brands was 42.3%, a decrease of 9.1% over the same period, while the domestic retail market share was 38.8%, a slight increase of 0.1% over the same period last year. Some state-owned enterprises have strong independent performance, and Changan, Hongqi, great wall, Chery, Weilai and other brands have a high growth year on year.

In February, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands increased by 345% year-on-year, decreased by 46% compared with January, and decreased by 2% compared with February 2019. Among them, the US retail market share reached 9.8%, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points, showing a strong performance. Japanese brands accounted for 21.8%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points, lower than that of German brands by 3 percentage points.

Exports: in February, the Federation exported 73000 passenger cars and CKD, up 117.9% year on year. Among them, the export of independent brands reached 60000, a year-on-year increase of 125%, and the export of joint venture brands increased by 11% year-on-year in 2019.

Automobile exports are generally strong, while imports are relatively weak. From January to February, the customs imported 281000 vehicles, up 85% year on year. From January to February, the customs imported 160000 cars, up 17.6% year on year.

Production: 1.132 million passenger cars were produced in February, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in February 2019, and the production growth was stable; 2.995 million passenger cars were produced from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the production decreased by 80000. The production of luxury cars in February increased by 57% compared with that in February 2019, the same caliber of joint venture brands decreased by 4%, and the same caliber of independent brands decreased by 4%.

Wholesale: in February, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 1.135 million, an increase of 409.7% compared with February last year, a decrease of 6.1% compared with February 19, and a decrease of 44.1% compared with January. From January to February, the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 3.633 million, up 73.6% year on year, down 2.1% compared with that in 2019.

Inventory: this year’s destocking is obvious, coupled with less target pressure, manufacturers’ inventory continued to decline in February. At the end of February, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 1000 vehicles and the channel’s inventory decreased by 110000 vehicles; from January to February 2021, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 170000 vehicles, which is similar to the reduction of inventory from January to February of previous years, forming the characteristics of strong de inventory for four consecutive years.

The channel inventory from January to February in 2021 decreased by 330000 vehicles, which was slightly higher than the level of 200000 vehicles removed from inventory from January to February in the previous two years. With the contradiction of chip shortage highlighted, the lean production mode flexibly adjusted by some auto enterprises has also been questioned by upstream supporting enterprises. Inventory is not only the source of evil, but also the source of survival.

New energy: in February, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 100000, with a year-on-year increase of 640.2%, and a month on month decrease of 39.5%. Among them, 16000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year growth of 737.5%, accounting for 16%. The wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 84000, with a year-on-year increase of 624.3%. In February, the sales volume of high and low end models of electric vehicles increased strongly, of which the sales volume of A00 class was 32000, accounting for 39% of pure electric; the sales volume of A-class electric vehicles accounted for 17% of pure electric, which was at the bottom of recent years; the sales volume of B-class electric vehicles reached 29000, 13% lower than that of January, accounting for 34% of pure electric, showing a strong performance. In February, the new energy passenger car market diversified, and the enterprises with sales volume exceeding 10000 vehicles included SAIC GM Wuling 20819 vehicles, Tesla China 18318 vehicles and BYD 10245 vehicles. Tesla produced 23632 vehicles, and this year’s export performance is outstanding. In February, the sales volume of new forces such as Weilai, ideal, Weima, Xiaopeng, Hezhong, Zero run and so on were also excellent. The performance differentiation of new energy of large groups has intensified, and SAIC and GAC have relatively strong performance. BBA luxury car company’s pure electric vehicles are in full mass production, but lack of highlights.

In February, 25900 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were wholesale, up 900% from February last year.

In February, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 97000, up 675.0% year on year and down 37.9% month on month.

The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 8.2% in February, and 7.5% from January to February, which was significantly higher than that of 5.8% in 2020. By category, in February, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy in independent brands was 15.2%, and that of luxury new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 12.5%, but the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands in mainstream joint venture market was only 1.1%.

Outlook of national passenger car market in February and March

March has 23 working days, which is the most working days in the whole year, which is conducive to the development of production and sales.

In the past three years, manufacturers and dealers have been in the process of destocking. Reducing inventory and cost is the main measure to improve efficiency, but the resulting structural demand is difficult to deal with effectively, which should also be improved, or it will promote the automobile enterprises in the production and sales forecast for the type distribution research more refined management.

March is the start-up period of agriculture, construction and other fields in the whole year. The demand for vehicles is at the highest level in the whole year. The sales of trucks and buses are at the highest level in the year. The production and sales of passenger cars are also at the relatively high level in the traditional cycle.

In March, Shanghai’s new energy vehicle license policy fine-tuning released a clear policy orientation by imposing stricter restrictions on the installation of self use charging piles for the application of plug-in hybrid license plates before 2023. However, considering that the scale of car purchase customers in the early stage is gradually stable and the policy transition period is long, the possibility of a substantial sprint is not great, which is conducive to the steady development of Shanghai new energy vehicle market.

With the promotion of the call to encourage local Chinese new year, coupled with the rapid recovery of the world economy after the epidemic situation slows down, the market will start earlier after the Spring Festival, which will guarantee the strong start of retail in March.

After the Spring Festival, the fear of the epidemic situation has been reduced, the willingness to buy caused by the early epidemic risk has gradually subsided, the macro policy of hedging the epidemic situation has basically withdrawn, and the trend of market expansion has slowed down.

The demand for commercial vehicles was high in March, but the overall momentum of the recent joint venture brands was weak, and the auto market in March still lacked independent growth highlights.

Due to the role of low base, it is estimated that the increment of passenger cars will reach 2.1 million in the first quarter, which will contribute 11% to the growth rate in 2020, which also lays the foundation for the annual total increment.

3. Promote the popularization of private cars and promote the consumption of internal circulation

On March 5, the government work report clearly put forward: in order to stimulate the vitality of market players, promote the whole process reform of production access and circulation management of automobile industry. We should adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and fully tap the potential of the domestic market. We will steadily increase bulk consumption of automobiles and household appliances, lift unreasonable restrictions on second-hand car trading, increase parking lots, charging piles, power stations and other facilities, and speed up the construction of a power battery recycling system.

The government work report strengthens market vitality from both supply and demand sides, and promotes the reform of automobile production and circulation management. The next reform direction of the consumption tax of the Ministry of finance is to gradually transfer some of the current consumption tax items collected in the production (import) link to the wholesale or retail link under the premise of controllable collection and management, which is conducive to mobilizing local enthusiasm and facilitating local governments to use this fund to build infrastructure and improve service level and capacity.

Steady increase in automobile consumption is the focus of this year’s work. In 2020, the problem of consumption short board is obvious, with a 24% increase in trucks and a 7% negative growth in passenger cars. The differentiation of passenger cards is obvious. In 2020, the central and local governments have many good short-term measures to promote automobile consumption, but there is a lack of stability and continuity. Therefore, stabilizing automobile consumption still needs the consumption promotion of national and local governments at all levels.

Remove unreasonable restrictions on second-hand car trading. There is a huge difference between the proposed policy to promote the consumption of second-hand cars and the formulation in 2018. In the early stage, the emphasis is on improving the circulation and abolishing the restrictions on relocation. The description of the premier’s work report has been upgraded to second-hand car trading, and its policy content has rich imagination space, which shows that China Automobile Circulation Association has played a significant role in promoting policy, and the future policy dividend can be expected.

Active automobile consumption in county and township markets is an important basic guarantee to promote rural revitalization. Rural Revitalization Strategy is the focus of the next rural work, the follow-up extension of targeted poverty alleviation, and the foundation of promoting modernization. At present, the success of poverty alleviation is based on the solution of absolute poverty, and the higher standard of alleviating relative poverty requires continuous efforts. Therefore, it is of great significance to promote the popularization of automobiles in rural areas, improve rural travel conditions, and create more new production and living environment.

Increasing parking lot, charging pile, power station and other facilities is the focus of future development. In particular, the new micro electric vehicles have been well recognized in the county and township markets. There will be a broad space to improve the urban and rural power grid supporting system and realize the convenient travel of electric vehicles.

According to statistics, in January 2021, China’s share of new energy passenger cars in the world was 56%, with a month on month decrease of 17% in January compared with that in December; while in Europe, the month on month decrease was 63%, with obvious characteristics of the rush in December caused by policy pressure and the huge drop in January. This government work report does not specifically mention new energy vehicles, which shows that the development of China’s new energy vehicles has shifted from the early policy driven to the market-oriented track, and the industry has confidence in the new energy passenger vehicle market to achieve high sales growth in 2021, which is also a good thing.

4. The standard of fuel consumption limit of passenger car changes the technical route of engine

On February 20, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people’s Republic of China (MIIT) organized and formulated the mandatory national standard of fuel consumption limits for passenger cars (GB 19578-2021), which was approved and issued by the State Administration of market supervision and administration and the State Standardization Administration, and officially implemented on July 1, 2021.

The standard specifies the fuel consumption limit requirements for M1 vehicles with gasoline or diesel fuel and maximum design total mass less than 3500kg in the future. It is one of the important supporting standards for China’s automobile energy saving management. The release and implementation of standards is an important measure to implement the medium and long term development plan of automobile industry, which is of great significance to promote energy conservation and emission reduction of automobile products, promote healthy and sustainable development of the industry, and support the realization of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral strategic objectives.

National fuel consumption test and fuel consumption standard lead the development direction of industry technology, and the core significance of fuel consumption standard is to lead enterprises how to design the development direction of engine. The fuel consumption level of different engines under different working conditions is different. Under NEDC condition, the engine load is generally low, and the small displacement engine can achieve better fuel consumption under low load. However, the fuel consumption of consumers is relatively high under the actual urban congestion conditions, thus forming a contrast.

The label of wltc fuel consumption should be closer to the relatively reasonable road conditions. In this way, consumers will feel that the fuel consumption is closer to their actual use. For example, if we design according to NEDC standard, we will design a small displacement turbocharged engine. According to wltc standard, naturally aspirated engines will be more preferred.

5. Shanghai leads China’s new energy line with the new deal

Recently, the general office of Shanghai Municipal People’s government issued the implementation plan for accelerating the development of new energy vehicle industry in Shanghai (2021-2025), which is a comprehensive and systematic policy measure for the development of new energy vehicle industry in Shanghai during the “14th five year plan”.

According to the new energy policy of Shanghai, as of January 1, 2023, consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (including extended range vehicles) will no longer issue special licenses.

The Yangtze River Delta is the strongest industrial cluster of new energy in China. Shanghai is the largest consumer city of passenger cars in China, and also the largest market of new energy in China. In addition to the large market capacity of Shanghai, it is of great significance to guide the national industry wind vane by Shanghai’s new energy technology lines.

The forward-looking change of license free policy in Shanghai’s new energy incentive policy is a good transitional measure, which is basically consistent with the idea of new energy vehicle electrification advocated by the state. To guide consumers to gradually buy electric vehicles also gives enterprises a better time to adjust their products and realize the transformation from traditional vehicles to electric vehicles.

In recent years, the national share of plug-in hybrid vehicles in Shanghai has always been high, reaching 22% in 2020 and 32% in January this year. Shanghai’s local car companies have an excellent performance in the plug-in market. For example, the plug-in models of SAIC passenger cars enter the European market in batches, and the plug-in is also very important to Shanghai’s car companies. However, the target market of the mixed products of all manufacturers in the country is basically Shanghai as the core, realizing the increase of mixed products in the mainstream market and meeting the policy requirements of double points. In the future, it needs to pay attention to whether the state’s credit support policy for intercalation will change.

Shanghai new deal is an important industry wind vane. Combined with the 90% target setting of pure electric in 2025 in the early new energy circuit diagram, the pure electric core circuit should be paid enough attention to by car enterprises.

6. The risk of supply interruption of automobile chips is gradually resolved

Due to the lack of demand expectation in the epidemic, the surge of chip demand after the epidemic, and the interference of the United States in the chip industry chain, one of the most important problems facing the global manufacturing industry today is “lack of core”. From cars to smartphones to game console manufacturers, everyone is complaining. This may be the most serious chip shortage crisis in years.

Since the end of last year, the supply of automotive chips has been on the cusp of the storm, but the overall pressure is not big. The current insufficient production of passenger cars does not mean direct market loss. According to the monitoring, the terminal retail price of the current car market is relatively stable, and there is no obvious price rising trend of the main models, which reflects the strong ability of manufacturers and dealers to cope with inventory crisis.

Mainstream automotive chips have high profits and high requirements for adaptability, reliability, durability and compliance. Therefore, the hidden cost and access threshold are high, and vehicle manufacturers are very cautious in selecting suppliers. With the equipment department of the Ministry of industry and information technology and domestic electronic enterprises comprehensively promoting the mitigation measures of chip problems, as a highly mature automotive chip, under this rare opportunity, the supply of new capacity will gradually release, coupled with the gradual recovery of domestic blocked chip capacity, the car market sales should not be greatly affected by the chip shortage.

The chip crisis has brought great opportunities for China’s chip supply chain to cut into vehicle supporting. In particular, the industry chain of independent brands has strong self-control ability, and the shortage of chips can be solved by strengthening supply and demand coordination and developing multi track supply channels.

From the perspective of the world chip crisis, the world supply chain is unsafe and unhealthy without the participation of the Chinese mainland in the overall production. As domestic enterprises gradually increase the production of chips, I believe that the shortage of automotive chips will not cause too much shortage impact on the industry at present, and the impact will be gradually resolved in the future.

7. Bright future of automobile industry

The essence of the automobile industry is “clothing, food, housing and transportation”. Travel belongs to the basic needs of human beings and has sustainable market demand. However, the product form, business model and industry ecology will change. As long as the automobile industry keeps up with the pace of change, it will not belong to the sunset industry.

At present, fuel vehicles have entered the end of technological innovation, but new energy vehicle technology has not yet reached the peak. At the same time, 5g and intelligent driving technology will greatly expand automobile application scenarios, such as urban unmanned mobile service vehicles, unmanned online car hailing and unmanned transportation fleet (large capacity). There are no other devices that can effectively replace these application scenarios in a short time. The improvement of the level of urbanization leads to the formation of urban circle and urban chain, and the expansion of the radius of life and work. The cross regional flow demand will exist as a long-term demand. The intelligent development of urban transportation network will also help to alleviate the current road congestion in some large and medium-sized cities and create a better user environment for users.

At present, the number of cars owned by 1000 people in China is less than 200, which is far lower than that in developed countries, so the growth potential is still very large. In addition, China’s automobile industry is in the big transformation stage from the first purchase to the second purchase. With the increase of consumers’ income and broaden their horizons, the demand for cars will also be upgraded.

Some people are worried that the car market will shrink sharply due to the decline in demand brought about by sharing. The huge public transport system focuses on meeting the basic travel demand of China under the condition of large population base. Its low-cost advantage is based on the continuous promotion of financial public service expenditure and urban infrastructure, but it can not meet the personalized and private phased upgrading travel demand of users with different frequencies. The potential of private mobile space in the future is huge. In the period of revolutionary breakthrough of automobile technology, the new automobile lifestyle will be the driving force to promote the sustainable development of automobile market.

In the future, the industry opportunities are still huge. There are opportunities for both joint venture brands and independent brands. Joint venture brands have a profound and profound foundation. Independent brands continue to establish and improve their development system. They have a strong sense of Internet thinking and have the courage to innovate and try. Enterprises that do not know how to change and adapt to the needs of users will become sunset enterprises, but the automobile industry is still a vibrant industry.

Read more: China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in August 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in November 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: National passenger car market analysis in May 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in November 2019 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in March 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in February 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in June 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: June 2019 China Automobile Circulation Association: February 2019 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: September 2018 national passenger car market analysis passenger Federation: October 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: March 2020 domestic narrow sense passenger car market sales reached 1.045 million A year-on-year decrease of 40.4% China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of the national passenger car market in September 2020 Passenger Car Association: analysis of the national passenger car market in March 2019 Passenger Car Association: analysis of the national passenger car market in April 2019

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