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The following is the Analysis on operation characteristics of national passenger car market in November 2020 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.
In November, the overall trend of passenger car market was stable, the retail growth of traditional vehicles was weak, and the growth of new energy was strong. The performance of major automobile enterprises is strong and the industry differentiation is intensified.
1. Retail trend of passenger cars in narrow sense in recent years
In November, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.081 million, an increase of 8.0% compared with last November, achieving the highest growth rate of about 8% in five consecutive months in recent two years.
This year, the growth rate of the national passenger car market remained strong from July to November. First of all, the macro-economy and export market have recovered more than expected. Secondly, the retail sales of new energy vehicles doubled and the trend of recovery was obvious, which promoted the automobile market to strengthen.
The cumulative growth rate of retail sales from January to November this year was – 8.3%, 2% higher than that of – 10.2% from January to October, reflecting the steady recovery of the industry..
This year’s decline in retail sales is mainly due to the early spring festival and epidemic factors affecting 2.08 million vehicles in the first quarter. The retail sales loss in the second quarter was only 170000, with an increase of 380000 vehicles in the third quarter. In November, 150000 vehicles were increased, so it is estimated that the annual reduction will be within 1.4 million vehicles, and the annual negative growth will be about 7%.
2. Trend of passenger car wholesale in narrow sense in recent years
In November, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 2.263 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a month on month increase of 9.2% over October. This year’s downturn in the independent brand of traditional cars led to a weak trend at the end of the year..
From January to November, the total wholesale sales volume was 17.451 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, a decrease of 1.475 million vehicles, and a rapid narrowing of the reduction range.
3. Production trend of passenger cars in narrow sense in recent years
In November, the production of passenger cars was 2.278 million, an increase of 8.0% compared with that in November of 19; from January to November, 17.156 million passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a reduction of 1.511 million. In November, the production of luxury cars increased by 24.0% year-on-year, joint-venture brands increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and self-owned brands decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, of which the production of independent SUVs decreased by 10.0%.
In November, we can see a stronger growth rate of output than that in November. From January to November, 17.12 million vehicles were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a decrease of 1.64 million vehicles..
4. Monthly change characteristics of production and sales inventory
At the end of November, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 137000 vehicles, and the channel inventory increased by 99000 vehicles. From January to November, the channel inventory decreased by 120000 vehicles, and the dealers’ inventory continued to be slightly replenished from September to November, and the replenishment in November was relatively strong.
Due to the relatively low inventory of dealers from January to October, all manufacturers tried to make up for the losses caused by the epidemic, and the effect of resuming production and returning to work was outstanding, so the terminal inventory was reasonably replenished.
5. Price trend characteristics of passenger cars in narrow sense
In 2020, the price trend of passenger car market will be stable on the whole, and there will be no obvious increase in sales promotion in the whole car market. From January to February, the whole car market was in a frozen state under the epidemic situation. After freezing in March to may, the market resumed and kept the original operating characteristics. There was neither explosive sales growth nor sharp contraction of sales promotion in short supply. From June to August, the sales promotion of automobile market was gradually increased, and some new products were launched. The price promotion from September to November did not increase much.
6. Growth characteristics of all levels of passenger cars in narrow sense
Wholesale was slightly stronger than retail in November. In November, SUV retail sales increased by 8% year-on-year, still relatively strong. Among them, B-class SUVs increased by 32% compared with last November, and Class-A SUVs increased by 10% compared with last November. Joint venture SUVs such as VW are stronger, and independent SUVs such as Chang’an and great wall are outstanding.
7. National growth characteristics of passenger cars in narrow sense
In November, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands increased by 3.0% year-on-year, but by 1.0% month on month compared with October. The shares of Japanese and American brands increased by 3% year on year.
8. The performance of autonomy is difficult under the epidemic situation
In November, luxury car retail sales increased by 27.0% year-on-year and 5.0% month on month compared with October, maintaining a strong growth feature. The demand for high-end replacement of consumer upgrading is still strong. German luxury cars tend to stabilize at the end of the year, while American luxury cars such as Tesla, Cadillac and Lincoln perform well.
In November 2020, the share of independent brands was 40.2%, which was still a big drop compared with the previous years, and the share returned to the bottom, slightly better than the level of 19 years. Since November of 18, the share of independent brands for 20 consecutive months has decreased significantly year on year. The annual share decline rate in 19 years is still large. After 20 years of epidemic situation, the share of independent brands rose from February to March. From April to July.
The market rescue policy, which started in April, has brought benefits to the industry. From April to June, autonomy began to decline sharply, because the joint venture and luxury recovered quickly. The independent recovery from September to November is also a big contribution of new energy.
9. Brand production and marketing characteristics in November 2020
The trend of differentiation of automobile enterprises has intensified, the growth dividend of SUV has disappeared, the high growth of new energy market has gradually cooled down, joint ventures have laid down the entry-level market, the stock competition has become intense, and the share of independent brands has been gradually squeezed. The volume of most enterprises continues to be lower than the break even point. It is expected that some enterprises will gradually deepen the cost of vehicle simplification and integration platform strategy optimization.
10. Trend comparison between new energy and traditional vehicles
As the purchase of cars started earlier before the Spring Festival at the end of last year, the retail sales of traditional cars in November this year increased by 57000 units to 1.913 million units. The year-on-year growth rate was only 3.1%, slightly weaker than the 4.4% in October. Recently, new crown cases appeared in some areas, and “external defense input, internal anti rebound” also slowed down the pace of retail warming. In November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 169 000, with a year-on-year increase of 97000, with a year-on-year growth rate of 136.5%. The passenger car retail market penetration rate was 8.0%, which became the core driving force for the growth of passenger car retail.
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