Automobile industry

Analysis on operation characteristics of passenger car market in February 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association

The following is the Analysis on operation characteristics of passenger car market in February 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.

In February 2021, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.177 million, with a year-on-year increase of 371% in February 2020, which was the most affected by the epidemic, and a year-on-year increase of 1% in February 2019. From January to February this year, the total retail sales reached 3.338 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%, achieving a record high growth rate in the same period since the launch of retail data statistics by the passenger Federation in 2005.

From January to February this year, retail sales were basically flat compared with the same period in 2019, and the performance was weaker than that in the second half of 2020. This was mainly due to the lack of hot county and township markets due to the absence of Spring Festival homecoming tide.

1. Retail trend of passenger cars in narrow sense in recent years

In February 2021, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.177 million, with a year-on-year increase of 371% in February 2020, which was the most affected by the epidemic, and a year-on-year increase of 1% in February 2019. From January to February, it achieved a good start in 2021, and now the industry is steadily warming up.

Recently, the epidemic situation has spread in counties and townships, which has a great impact on the car market. In particular, the measures of “Celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot” have been deeply implemented in all localities and units, and the strength is very strong, so the number of people returning to their hometown has been greatly reduced. Because part of the car consumption before the Spring Festival is contributed by the people who return home, they can not buy cars because of returning home, which will slow down the growth of the car market in 2021.

Compared with – 7.3% of passenger car retail in 2019, the growth rate of – 6.8% in 2020 is better than that in 2019, and the performance in February this year is also higher. In 2020, the national passenger car market will drop by 41% in the first quarter and 3.6% in the second quarter. The growth rate from July to December will maintain a strong growth trend of about 8%, and this year will be a good start. First of all, China’s macro-economy and export market recovered faster than expected, especially under the background of epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, China’s export performance was strong, which stabilized consumer confidence. The second is the promotion of special factors of low car market base caused by the implementation of the Sixth National Congress in July last year in some regions. Third, in the second half of 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles will have a strong recovery, which will promote the strength of the automobile market.

2. The wholesale trend of passenger cars in narrow sense in recent years.

In February, the manufacturer’s wholesale sales volume was 1.135 million vehicles, an increase of 409% compared with February last year, a decrease of 6% compared with February 19, and a decrease of 44% compared with January. From January to February, the total wholesale sales volume was 3.16 million, a year-on-year increase of 74%, and a decrease of 2% compared with that in 2019. Compared with February of 19 years, the time after the festival is shorter, and the shipping speed is slightly slower.

In February 2021, the inventory of manufacturers will continue to decline due to the greater efforts of destocking this year and the less target pressure.

In February 2020, the total wholesale sales volume was 3.16 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 74%, a relative increase of 1.34 million vehicles, with a large increase. February’s wholesale is also the highest year-on-year growth in 14 years.

3. The trend of passenger car production in narrow sense in recent years.

In February, 1.132 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 2% compared with February 2019, and the production growth was stable;

From January to February, the cumulative production of 2.98 million vehicles decreased by 2% compared with that in 2019, and the output decreased by 80000 vehicles, with little overall decline.

4. Monthly change characteristics of production and marketing inventory

This year’s destocking is obvious, coupled with less target pressure, manufacturers’ inventories continued to decline in February. At the end of February, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 1000 vehicles and the channel’s inventory decreased by 110000 vehicles; from January to February 2021, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 170000 vehicles, which is similar to the reduction of inventory from January to February of previous years, forming the characteristics of strong de inventory for four consecutive years.

The channel inventory from January to February in 2021 decreased by 330000 vehicles, which was slightly higher than the level of 200000 vehicles removed from inventory from January to February in the previous two years. With the contradiction of chip shortage highlighted, the lean production mode flexibly adjusted by some auto enterprises has also been questioned by upstream supporting enterprises. Inventory is not only the source of evil, but also the source of survival.

5. Price trend characteristics of passenger cars in narrow sense

In 2021, the price trend of passenger car market is generally stable, and there is no obvious increase of promotion in the whole car market. From January to February in 2020, the whole auto market is frozen under the epidemic situation. From March to may, it will resume the market and continue to maintain the original trend of operation characteristics. There is neither explosive growth of sales promotion nor sharp contraction of sales promotion in short supply. From June to August, the car market promotion gradually increased, and some new products were launched. From September to December, the price promotion increased little, but there was no obvious price recovery in winter.

From January to February this year, the terminal market price was generally stable at the promotion level of 17%.

6. Growth characteristics of different levels of passenger cars in narrow sense

In 2021, the growth rate of wholesale is slightly stronger than that of retail. From January to February 2021, retail sales of SUV increased by 74% year on year, still relatively strong. Among them, B-class SUV increased by 111% and A-class SUV increased by 73% compared with last year. Independent Changan, great wall and other SUV performed well.

7. Growth characteristics of passenger car countries in narrow sense

In February, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands increased by 13% year on year, but decreased by 10% month on month compared with December. Among them, the retail sales share of American brands reached 9.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points, showing a strong performance. Japanese brands accounted for 21.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, lower than that of German brands by 4.2 percentage points.

8. The performance of autonomy is difficult under the epidemic situation

In February 2021, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 54% compared with the same period last year, and also increased significantly compared with that in December. The demand for high-end exchange of consumption upgrading is still strong.

In February 2021, the retail sales of independent brands increased by 42% year on year, and the wholesale market share of independent brands increased by 41.5%, 1.2% over the same period; however, the domestic retail sales share decreased by 0.3% year on year, 39.5%. Some of the state-owned enterprises have strong independent performance, and the brands of red flag, great wall, Chery and Weilai have a high growth year on year.

In February 2021, the share of independent brands was 42.2%, which was still better than that of previous years, and the share was slightly better than that of 19 years. Since 18 February 2021, the share of independent brands has declined significantly for 20 consecutive months. In the past 19 years, the decline rate of the annual share is still relatively high. Under the epidemic situation of 20 years, the share of independent brands rebounded from February to March. Then, it decreased greatly from April to July. From September to February 2021, it will be warmed up by new energy.

9. Characteristics of brand production and marketing in February 2021

In February, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 44% year-on-year and 21% month on month compared with December, continuing to maintain a strong growth feature. The demand for high-end swap of consumption upgrading is still strong, and the low wholesale in December also promoted the retail growth in February.

In February, the retail sales of independent brands increased by 38% year-on-year, and decreased by 7% month on month compared with December. The wholesale market share of independent brands was 42%, which increased by 5 percentage points compared with the same period. However, the domestic retail sales share was 38.7%, which increased by 3.3 percentage points compared with the same period. Some of the state-owned enterprises have strong independent performance, Geely Automobile and Chang’an automobile have jumped to the second and third highest positions, and the brands of red flag, great wall and Weilai have a high growth year on year.

10. Trend comparison between new energy and traditional vehicles

Due to the early start of car purchase before the Spring Festival at the end of last year, this year’s car market is characterized by the downturn of traditional cars and the strong characteristics of new energy vehicles.

At the same time, the year-end automobile consumption policies in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions also promoted the strength of the high-end automobile market, forming an obvious reversal with the booming county and township markets and the downturn in big cities.

Recently, some new cases appeared in some areas, and “external prevention of import and internal prevention of rebound” also slowed down the pace of retail recovery. The penetration rate of passenger car retail market is 8%, which has become the core driving force of passenger car retail growth. China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of the operation characteristics of the national passenger car market in November 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: monthly report of China’s imported automobile market in April 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in March 2020, the sales volume of domestic narrow sense passenger car market reached 1.045 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4%. China Automobile Circulation Association: 57 new authorized 4S stores for luxury brands in the first quarter of 2020 41 online 4S stores: China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis report of the national passenger car market in June 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of the operation characteristics of the national passenger car market in June 202 China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis of the national passenger car market in December 2019 China Automobile Circulation Association: forecast review of the wholesale volume of the narrow passenger car market in January 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association Meeting: November 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: October 2020 passenger car market product competitiveness index is 91.0 China Automobile Circulation Association: September 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: in the first quarter of 2020, domestic passenger car dealers retail 3.19 million, a year-on-year decline of 42% In depth analysis report of national passenger car market in March 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of national passenger car market in March 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis of national passenger car market in February 2020

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