The following is the Analysis on operation characteristics of passenger car market in January 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.
1. Retail trend of passenger cars in narrow sense in recent years
In January, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 2.16 million units, a decrease of 5.6% compared with December, and an increase of 26% compared with January last year. It has achieved a good start in 2021, and now the industry is steadily warming up.
Recently, the epidemic situation has spread in counties and townships, which has a great impact on the car market. In particular, the measures of “Celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot” have been deeply implemented in all localities and units, and the strength is very strong, so the number of people returning to their hometown has been greatly reduced. Because part of the car consumption before the Spring Festival is contributed by those who return home, they can not buy cars because they return home, which will slow down the growth of the car market in 2021.
Compared with – 7.3% of passenger car retail in 2019, the growth rate of – 6.8% in 2020 is better than that in 2019, and the performance in January this year is also higher. In 2020, the national passenger car market will drop by 41% in the first quarter and 3.6% in the second quarter. From July to January 2021, the growth rate will maintain a strong growth trend of about 8%, and this year will be a good start. First of all, China’s macro-economy and export market recovered faster than expected, especially under the background of epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, China’s export performance was strong, which stabilized consumer confidence. The second is the promotion of special factors of low car market base caused by the implementation of the Sixth National Congress in July last year in some regions. Third, in the second half of 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles will have a strong recovery, which will promote the strength of the automobile market.
The 5.6% decline in retail sales in January compared with December is not strong in normal years, but it is much better than the 20% decline in 2017, 2018 and 2020. In January, retail sales increased by 26% compared with the same period last year, which was the second highest growth in the past 10 years after 2013 (January 23, 2012).
2. The wholesale trend of narrow sense passenger cars in recent years
In January, the manufacturer’s wholesale sales volume was 2.028 million vehicles, an increase of 27% compared with January last year, and a decrease of 12% compared with December. Under the influence of this year’s epidemic, dealers lack confidence, and the target pressure is small, so the weekly wholesale progress in January is slow.
In January 2021, the inventory of manufacturers will continue to decline due to the greater efforts of destocking this year and the less target pressure.
In January 2020, the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 19.74 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, a decrease of 1.37 million vehicles, and the reduction rate narrowed rapidly. The wholesale in January also had the highest year-on-year growth over the past 14 years.
3. Production trend of narrow sense passenger cars in recent years
In January, 1.85 million passenger cars were produced, an increase of 33% compared with that in January of 20 years, and a decrease of 18% compared with that in December. In January, the production of luxury cars increased by 35%, joint venture brands by 7% and independent brands by 71%.
In 2020, it will produce 19.42 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and the output will decrease by 1.43 million vehicles.. 2021
4. Monthly change characteristics of production and marketing inventory
At the end of January, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 180000, and the channel inventory decreased by 210000; from September to December 2020, the channel inventory increased by 110000, and from September to December 2019, the channel inventory increased by 100000. The winter inventory reserve that should be established before the winter of 2020 is not established in advance, which also causes a certain loss of sales in January.
In January 2021, the channel inventory decreased by 190000 vehicles. The dealers’ inventory continued to be replenished slightly from April to August. In January 2021, the efforts to remove the inventory of 74000 units were relatively strong, preparing for a good start in January. In 2019, the channel will reduce the inventory by 200000 units, and the de inventory rate of the channel in the past two years is similar, forming the characteristics of continuous de inventory for two consecutive years..
5. Price trend characteristics of passenger cars in narrow sense
In 2021, the price trend of passenger car market is generally stable, and there is no obvious increase of promotion in the whole car market. From January to February in 2020, the whole auto market is frozen under the epidemic situation. From March to may, it will resume the market and continue to maintain the original trend of operation characteristics. There is neither explosive growth of sales promotion nor sharp contraction of sales promotion in short supply. From June to August, the car market promotion gradually increased, and some new products were launched. From September to January 2021, the price promotion increased little.
6. Growth characteristics of different levels of passenger cars in narrow sense
In 2021, the growth rate of wholesale is slightly stronger than that of retail. In January 2021, retail sales of SUV increased by 25% year on year, still relatively strong. Among them, class B SUVs increased by 36% compared with January 2021 last year, and class a SUVs increased by 30% compared with January 2021 last year.
7. Growth characteristics of passenger car countries in narrow sense
In January, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands increased by 13% year on year, but decreased by 10% month on month compared with December. Among them, the retail sales share of American brands reached 9.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points, showing a strong performance. Japanese brands accounted for 21.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, lower than that of German brands by 4.2 percentage points.
8. The performance of autonomy is difficult under the epidemic situation
In January 2021, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 54% on a year-on-year basis, and also increased significantly on a month on month basis compared with December, continuing to maintain a strong growth feature. The demand for high-end exchange of consumption upgrading is still strong.
In January 2021, the retail sales of independent brands increased by 42% year-on-year, and the wholesale market share of independent brands increased by 41.5%, 1.2% over the same period; however, the domestic retail market share decreased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 39.5%. Some of the state-owned enterprises have strong independent performance, and the brands of red flag, great wall, Chery and Weilai have a high growth year on year.
In January 2021, the share of independent brands was 41.5%, which was still better than that of previous years. The share rose at the end of the year, slightly better than that of 19 years. Since 18 January 2021, the share of independent brands has declined significantly for 20 consecutive months. In the past 19 years, the decline rate of the annual share is still relatively high. Under the epidemic situation of 20 years, the share of independent brands rebounded from February to March. Then, it decreased greatly from April to July. From September to January 2021, it will be warmed up by new energy.
The rescue policy that started in April last year is good for the industry. From April to June, autonomy began to decline sharply due to the rapid recovery of joint venture and luxury. The independent recovery from September to January 2021 is also a great contribution of new energy.
9. Characteristics of brand production and marketing in January 2021
In January, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 44% year-on-year and 21% month on month compared with December. The demand for high-end swap of consumption upgrading is still strong, and the low wholesale in December also promoted the retail growth in January.
In January, the retail sales of independent brands increased by 38% year-on-year, and decreased by 7% month on month compared with December. The wholesale market share of independent brands was 42%, which increased by 5 percentage points compared with the same period. However, the domestic retail market share was 38.7%, which increased by 3.3 percentage points year on year. Some of the state-owned enterprises have strong independent performance, Geely Automobile and Chang’an automobile have jumped to the second and third highest positions, and the brands of red flag, great wall and Weilai have a high growth year on year.
10. Trend comparison between new energy and traditional vehicles
Due to the early start of car purchase before the Spring Festival at the end of last year, this year’s car market is characterized by the downturn of traditional cars and the strong characteristics of new energy vehicles.
At the same time, the year-end automobile consumption policies in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions also promoted the strength of the high-end automobile market, forming an obvious reversal with the booming county and township markets and the downturn in big cities.
Recently, some new cases appeared in some areas, and “external prevention of import and internal prevention of rebound” also slowed down the pace of retail recovery. The penetration rate of passenger car retail market is 8%, which has become the core driving force of passenger car retail growth. Read more: China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis report of the national passenger car market in March 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of the operation characteristics of the national passenger car market in June 202 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of the operation characteristics of the national passenger car market in March 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: the actual passenger car market in August 2020 is 1.7 million Annual growth of 9% China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis report of national passenger car market in May 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: monthly report of China imported automobile market in April 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in the first quarter of 2020, 57 authorized 4S stores of luxury brands will be added and 41 online 4S stores will be returned. China Automobile Circulation Association: in March 2020, the sales volume of domestic narrow sense passenger car market will reach 1.045 million Year on year decrease of 40.4% China Automobile Circulation Association: forecast review of wholesale volume of narrow sense passenger car market in January 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: product competitiveness index of passenger car market in October 2020 is 91.0 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of national passenger car market in August 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of national passenger car market in July 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: 2020 In depth analysis report of national passenger car market in June China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of national passenger car market in February 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis report of national passenger car market in November 2020
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