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The following is the It is estimated that in January 2021, the retail sales of narrow sense passenger cars will be 2.09 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% From Travel Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.
Market review in December and 2020
In December, the retail market of narrow sense passenger cars was 2.288 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%. Under the influence of the high base in the same period, the growth rate was slightly lower than that in the previous few months. In 2020, the market is characterized by a “two-stage” development. In the first half of the year, under the influence of the epidemic, the overall retail market decreased by 22.5% year on year. In the second half of the year, local stimulus policies were introduced, infrastructure investment was increased, industry and service industries continued to pick up, export demand was strong, domestic economy recovered steadily, and automobile market bottomed out and rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. In 2020, the retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense will reach 19.288 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%.
The retail market made a smooth transition in January
January is a complete month before the Spring Festival of this year. The traditional demand for returning home to buy cars is strong. Many stimulus policies continue, and the overall macro environment is good. Most of the main engine manufacturers have spare efforts at the end of last year to strive for a “good start” this month. However, the recent outbreak of epidemic in many places in China has restrained the tide of returning home during the Spring Festival. And because of the serious epidemic situation overseas, the problem of auto chip supply has become increasingly prominent, which brings certain risks to the market.
1. Sales trend of manufacturers
The terminal monitoring results show that the overall market discount rate was about 15.6% at the beginning of this month, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of last year. The consumption in the Spring Festival peak season makes the terminal price rise. In addition, the tight supply of some brands also reduces the promotion of models. According to the dealer survey, in January this year, the retail target of major manufacturers increased by 26.3% year-on-year, accounting for 83.4% of the total market sample. According to the preliminary calculation, the narrow sense passenger car retail market this month is about 2.09 million, with a year-on-year growth of about 21.6%.
2. Weekly trend analysis
Last year’s Spring Festival was in late January, and the pace of pre Festival sales was fast. Affected by this, the retail sales of major manufacturers fell by 2.1% and 8.9% respectively on the first and second Sunday of this year, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. From the third week, the market entered the low base stage of Spring Festival sales last year, which is expected to reach 66.7% year-on-year, and the sales growth in the fourth week is expected to be 13.2% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales will reach 2.09 million vehicles in January.
3. Market uncertainty increased this month
This year is the first year for China to implement the “double cycle” strategy. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in December last year increased by 4.6% year-on-year (2020 year: – 3.9%), of which the automobile category increased by 6.4% year-on-year (2020 year: – 1.8%), becoming an important support for economic recovery. This month, local initiatives to promote consumption continued. Hangzhou solicited opinions on regional licenses. Compared with last year, Hainan and Tianjin also increased the quota of licenses. It is expected that some regions will launch local policies to promote consumption in the near future, but the strength will be less than 2020. Shanghai’s automobile market is still in the policy window period. On the one hand, the second phase of the policy of restricting the use of foreign licenses will be formally implemented in May. On the other hand, the policy of free new energy licenses in Shanghai will be extended to the end of February, which will stimulate consumers to buy in advance to a certain extent. In addition, we should also see that the adverse factors of the automobile market are also increasing. At present, the epidemic situation in many places in China has broken out, and all localities advocate not to return home for the Spring Festival. The survey shows that the willingness of migrant workers to return to their hometown has declined in many places, and the travel and consumption in some areas with serious epidemic are also limited, which has a great impact on the car buying tide and daily consumption demand. The shortage of chips has worsened. Except for luxury brands, mainstream joint venture and independent brands have supply risks to varying degrees in the first quarter. It is expected that the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second quarter.
To sum up, the retail sales volume of narrow sense passenger cars in January is expected to be 2.09 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6%. Although the epidemic situation and chip supply have brought more uncertainty to the automobile market, the overall economic environment has continued to improve, and the automobile market in the first quarter can also achieve relatively bright growth performance on the basis of last year’s low base.
More reading: retail sales and growth rate of passenger cars in China (narrow sense) from January to November 2020 (original data sheet attached) Passenger car Association & cam: in February 2020, the product competitiveness index of passenger car market is 90.8; passenger car Association: in March 2020, the retail sales of passenger car in China will increase by 317.5%; passenger car Association: in January 2020, Shanghai auto market analysis; passenger car Association: in May 2020, China’s SUV comprehensive sales ranking; passenger car Association & cam: in November 2020, the product competitiveness index of passenger car market is 91.1; passenger car Association & anluqin: in May 2020 Passenger car new four modernizations index is 53.2 Passenger Car Association & cam: passenger car market product competitiveness index in November 2019 is 90.3 Passenger Car Association: Tesla new energy sales in May, Weilai and other new forces become important forces in the new energy vehicle market passenger car Association: retail sales of passenger car market will reach 1.609 million in May 2020 1.8% year-on-year growth Passenger Car Association & anluqin: the new four modernizations index of passenger cars in April 2020 is 53.8 Passenger Car Association: average retail sales of 51600 vehicles on the fourth Sunday of June 2020, down 37% year-on-year growth in June last year
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