Automobile industry

Scanning analysis of auto market from December 28 to December 31, 2020 From China Automobile Circulation Association

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The following is the Scanning analysis of auto market from December 28 to December 31, 2020 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.

1. Weekly retail trend of passenger car market in December

(the chart shows the data of some major manufacturers of the Association)

The average daily retail sales in the first week of December was 38000 vehicles, up 26% year on year and 9% month on month.

The average daily retail sales in the second week of December was 53000 vehicles, up 15% year on year and 5% month on month.

The average daily retail sales in the third week of December was 69000 vehicles, up 33% year on year and 33% month on month.

The average daily retail sales in the fourth week of December was 77000 vehicles, down 12% year-on-year and up 15% from the fourth week of November.

The average daily retail sales in the fifth week of December was 122000 vehicles, down 2% year on year and 7% month on month.

In December, the total retail sales of major manufacturers were 68000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a strong year-on-year growth rate. Compared with the same period in November, the growth rate was 14%, showing a strong performance.

In early December, retail sales in the auto market performed better because of the pressure at the end of last year. Therefore, it was low at the beginning of the previous few years. Now many dealers have no pressure on sales. Consumers in Beijing and other places just need to buy cars. The price rises steadily, and the sales volume at the beginning of the month is much better.

In 2020, the differentiation of auto market will be severe, and the traditional independent pressure will be great. At present, the growth of retail sales is mainly driven by high-end and new energy. The traditional car companies do not enjoy the market recovery dividend. The new energy vehicle market continues the high sales level at the end of previous years. At the same time, at the end of the year, many local stimulus policies are about to expire, and Beijing and other cities have increased their consumption enthusiasm.

Due to the stable macroeconomic environment and good performance in the export market, the personalized choice of winter travel drives relatively high enthusiasm for car purchase. The strong retail market at present also brings stable sales confidence of dealers. Therefore, the delivery rhythm of dealers at the beginning of the month is also accelerated, forming a better monthly sales rhythm, resulting in the improvement of growth rate in the first ten days and the middle ten days and the sprint at the end of the month The pressure is reduced.

2. Weekly wholesale trend of passenger car market in December

(the chart shows the data of some major manufacturers of the Association)

In the first week of December, the average daily wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 43000 vehicles, up 5% from December last year. It was down 2% from the first week of November.

In the second week of December, the average daily wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 58000 vehicles, up 7% from December last year. It was up 13% from the second week of November.

In the third week of December, the average daily wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 61000 vehicles, up 3% from December last year. It was up 1% from the third week of November.

In the fourth week of December, the average daily wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 64000 vehicles, down 14% from December last year. It was down 34% from the fourth week of November.

In the fifth week of December, the average daily wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 140000 vehicles, up 38% from December last year. It was up 70% from the fifth week of November.

Due to the relatively good delivery rhythm of manufacturers in November, the main manufacturers in December increased by 2% month on month compared with November. The year-on-year trend in December was also relatively stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%. In the fourth week, the pace of dealers’ purchase slowed down temporarily. This is mainly because the overall sales target of manufacturers this year is relatively rational. Therefore, some manufacturers strive to complete the annual task ahead of time, and then some dealers’ purchase slowed down significantly. The monthly sales growth of manufacturers in the fifth week is expected to release the normal sales of some manufacturers. Manufacturers and dealers work together to achieve the adjusted sales target.

Due to the differentiation of market demand, there is a strong demand for high-end models. Due to the postponement of the Spring Festival this year, the peak sales period of mainstream medium and low-end models before the Spring Festival has not yet arrived. Therefore, some enterprises have to rush sales at the end of the month, and the fourth week becomes a gap period, so the wholesale is relatively low. However, in the last week, the wholesale sales of manufacturers rose as expected, achieving a positive growth of about 7% in the whole month.

Recently, the production and inventory of independent manufacturers have decreased significantly. In December, the pace of purchasing goods is also strong at the beginning of the month, but the overall speed is not fast. At the end of this year, sales growth was mainly driven by new energy and limited purchase cities. Most independent traditional vehicle companies have not yet enjoyed the market recovery dividend, and the structural differentiation of the market will intensify in the future. Due to the better completion or lower target of some enterprises, the pace of wholesale trend in December was divided, resulting in the growth rate of manufacturers’ sales stalled in the fourth week of December, rose strongly in the last week, and still achieved good growth in the whole month. Due to the early completion of tasks by some manufacturers in December, it is expected that the growth rate in January will be abnormally high, so as to ensure a good start next year.

3. Analysis of new tax free products of new energy vehicles in 2020

Since 2020, the number of new energy vehicle tax free manufacturers has reached 224, and the number of automobile manufacturers is relatively stable compared with 2018 and 2019. Among them, the number of new energy manufacturers for passenger cars this year is 73, which is relatively less than 76 in 2018 and 85 in 2019, which is higher than the level in 2017. The number of 77 new energy buses decreased slightly, but the number of hydrogen bus manufacturers continued to grow. The number of 137 new energy special vehicle manufacturers this year is relatively higher than that of last year. This is also the reason why the market demand for new energy buses is low and the market demand for special vehicles is large.

The main new product launch of new energy for passenger cars is the rapid growth of new energy for state-owned enterprises. The number of new energy products launched by private enterprises has decreased significantly, from 210 in 2019 to 137. The market pressure of independent private new energy is greater.

The products of new force car manufacturers are gradually entering the market-oriented state. In 2020, there will be 68 models, with a decrease of 9 models. In the past 20 years, the lineup of new force auto companies has not changed much. Some of the products launched in the past 19 years have not been continuously launched in the past 20 years. The new products of joint venture and foreign-funded new energy are still on the low side.

The overall average driving range of pure electric passenger cars in 20 years is 397 km, while the average driving range in 2019 is 365 km. By comparison, the pure electric driving range of new energy vehicle passenger cars has been gradually increasing since one year, mainly because the number of new models over 500 km has increased to nearly 30%.

Recently, the 100 km power consumption of new energy vehicles is declining. The power consumption of pure electric passenger vehicles will drop to 12.5 degrees in 2020, maintaining an average decline of about 0.4 degrees for several consecutive years, reflecting better technology upgrading and lower use cost.

4. In 2021, new energy subsidies will promote market-oriented high growth

At the end of last year, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology, and the development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, and the development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of science and technology on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The notice requires that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 20% in 2021 on the basis of 2020. In order to smooth the decline of subsidies and keep the technical index threshold stable, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2021. This will stabilize the development process of new energy vehicles in 2021 and realize the rapid growth of new energy vehicles.

The December 31 issue was also implemented in January this year, forming a complete and stable new policy for this year. It will play a relatively stable growth process for the whole development of new energy vehicles in 2021. Due to the absence of concepts such as severe retrogression and transition period, the whole new energy vehicles will show a stable and rapid growth in 2021. This has also changed the complicated situation that after the decline period of new energy in 2019, the first half of 2019 will have a particularly high growth rate, and the second half will have a year-on-year decline.

5. The impact of China’s new energy subsidies has declined, accelerating the marketization

The adjustment of new energy subsidies did not cause much industry shock, which is also the characteristic of new energy vehicles turning to the market. There is even a better phenomenon that subsidies are declining and products are still reducing prices, which shows that the impact of market competition is greater.

The subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2021 is in line with the industry’s expectation. However, the current problem is that the subsidy for new energy vehicles in Europe is relatively high. For example, the subsidy for bicycles in Germany is 9000 euro, while our subsidy is only 20000 yuan. The subsidy for China is about 2500 euro. The subsidy for China is less than 30% of that for Europe, which is far lower than that for Europe 。 This also reflects the rapid market-oriented transformation of China’s new energy vehicles, and the European new energy subsidy policy lags behind China’s subsidy policy.

As the domestic subsidy support for Chinese enterprises is far less than the policy support for European enterprises, the new energy transformation of European automobile enterprises in Europe is further accelerated, and more new energy products made in China may be sold to Europe.

6. The price reduction of model y mainly impacts on traditional luxury cars

On January 1, 2021, Beijing time, Tesla China substantially adjusted the price of model y produced by Shanghai Super factory. At present, Tesla products are gradually changing the industry pricing rules after localization, especially the default rule of SUV high premium.

In 2020, the price reduction characteristics of new energy vehicles are obvious. The core feature of the strong performance of Wuling Hongguang mini and model 3 products is that the price strength is relatively large, which realizes the feature of new technology products with incremental price reduction. Such a price pattern is similar to Moore’s Law: all stock capacity is cumbersome and will be subverted by late comers with higher efficiency and newer technology. In the future, new energy vehicles still need to reduce prices to improve the penetration rate of traditional vehicles and let more consumers recognize electric vehicles.

Tesla Model 3 continues to strengthen its performance in the B-class luxury car market through continuous price reduction. This year, the starting price of Tesla Model Y’s long-range version is 339900 yuan. The competitive price relationship between Tesla Model y and Audi Q5, Mercedes Benz GLC and BMW X3 should be reversed obviously. The price of Tesla Model y has a certain advantage, which will gain more purchasing enthusiasm of luxury car consumers. Especially in mega cities, due to the huge advantages of license plate, model y will have a better performance. Read more: China Automobile Circulation Association: in the first quarter of 2020, 57 new authorized 4S stores of luxury brands will be added and 41 online 4S stores will be returned. China Automobile Circulation Association: monthly report of China’s imported automobile market in April 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in March 2020, the sales volume of domestic narrow sense passenger car market will reach 1.045 million A year-on-year decrease of 40.4% China Automobile Circulation Association Tesla’s value preservation rate surpasses BMW China Automobile Circulation Association: pulse of automobile market in November 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in depth analysis report of national passenger car market in November 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: second hand car market in November 2020 Degree analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: monthly report of Internet new travel branch in October 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in November 2020 is 60.5% China Automobile Circulation Association: new four modernizations index of passenger cars in October 2020 is 64.2 China Automobile Circulation Association: comparison of used car business of 4S stores in China and the United States China Automobile Circulation Association: passenger car market in October 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: pickup market analysis report in October 2020

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