The following is the Scanning analysis of automobile market from January 18 to January 24, 2021 From China Automobile Circulation Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.
Weekly retail trend of passenger car market in January
The average daily retail sales in the first week of January was 47000, down 7% from a year earlier and up 3% from the first week of December.
The average daily retail sales in the second week of January was 58000 vehicles, down 25% from a year earlier and 9% from the second week of December.
The average daily retail sales in the third week of January was 63000 vehicles, up 35% year on year and 17% month on month.
The average daily sales volume in the first three weeks of January was 55000 vehicles, down 4% year-on-year and 8% month on month compared with December. The overall trend was stable.
According to the expected sales volume, the current progress is relatively slow compared with the retail progress in December last year, and the trend is gradually improving compared with January 2019.
The longer vacation time is an important factor in the weak first week of this year. As the new year’s Day holiday in January this year is 3 days, and the holiday from 9 to 10 days, a total of 5 days; compared with the total holiday from 1 to 10 days last year, this year’s holiday time is longer, and the pace of production and marketing is relatively slow. Another reason for the stable performance of auto retail market in early January is the strong trend in the last week at the end of last year, and the sales volume in the first week of January this year has not recovered effectively.
On the one hand, the second week of last year was the peak of retail sales; on the other hand, the trend of retail sales under the influence of the epidemic was not strong.
In the third week, retail sales recovered steadily, with a low base due to the Spring Festival and epidemic situation in the same period last year, so the growth was good.
With the further strengthening of epidemic prevention measures, the pace of consumers in some northern areas to buy cars in stores has slowed down. With the approach of the Spring Festival, even if the tide of returning home to buy cars is weak, the retail market will continue to rise at the end of the month.
2. Weekly wholesale trend of passenger car market in January
In the first week of January, the wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached 45000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. It was down 11% from the first week of December.
In the second week of January, the average daily wholesale sales volume of major manufacturers reached 48000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. It was down 21% from the second week of December.
In the third week of January, the wholesale sales of major manufacturers reached an average of 56000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year increase of 37%. It was 14% lower than in the third week of December.
As the new year’s Day holiday in January this year is 3 days, and the holiday from 9 to 10 days, a total of 5 days. Compared with the total holiday from 1 to 10 days last year, this year’s holiday is longer, which has a greater impact on the sales rhythm of manufacturers than the retail rhythm.
Since January of the past 20 years is in the period of peak sales before the festival, it is very important to invoice and transport cars to the store in advance. In January of last year, the wholesale price was high before and low after. This is due to the fact that the commercial vehicles are on the way, so the invoice must be issued early. Otherwise, due to the early spring festival, they may not be able to sell after the 18th. Similar problems will also be reflected in 2019, so this year’s characteristics of low in the front and high in the back will still be obvious. I believe the end of the wholesale and retail will be very strong.
The current epidemic situation has a slight impact on the transportation in Northeast China, Beijing and some areas of Hebei Province. In addition, it encourages people not to return to their hometown for the Spring Festival, so the county and Township car markets before the Spring Festival have been affected by the changing factors of the epidemic situation.
From the perspective of the expected trend of progress, the retail progress in the second and third weeks continues to be slow, and the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase goods is not strong. The sales peak is before the Spring Festival, so whether the retail is hot or not is the key for dealers to purchase goods. At present, the overstocked inventory will be digested after the Spring Festival in February, and the financial risk will be relatively large.
3. Sharing is unrealistic – the mode of getting the right to use the car without buying is frustrated
In China’s new energy vehicle development plan, sharing is eliminated and the new four modernizations become the new three modernizations, which is of great significance and reduces the waste of telling stories by business model.
In the near future, both BMW and Audi will stop their vehicle subscription service. Mercedes Benz and Ford both shut down the service last year due to weak demand for travel services, and Cadillac closed the service in 2018.
Behind the subscription service is an attempt to change the ownership of automobile sales to the right to use. The first mock exam is for product companies, and the key is product depreciation management and demand. The key to users is service price. All kinds of services increase the cost, which is not accepted by customers, and it is similar in China.
In the future, with the intelligent improvement of vehicles, the subscription service and shared car exchange of vehicles are becoming more and more unrealistic. Some things can be shared, and some can’t be shared. After all, the car is a product attribute with private as the core. The core of automobile enterprises is to make good products. Even for electric vehicles, the core is to make good products in the short term.
4. In 2020, 1.06 million passenger cars will be exported by the customs, a year-on-year decrease of 13%
From January to December 2020, the customs exported 1.06 million passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, of which 360000 were exported in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 15%.
From the monthly trend, in recent years, the export still presents seasonal characteristics, like a roller coaster in summer to peak and fall trend characteristics, but in 2020 it will change to “V” trend. From March to December in 19 years, the export was at the low level over the years. In 20 years, the export of automobile market started strongly. From February to March, the export was low. From April, the export was still strong, but from May to June, the trend was extremely low. Under the epidemic situation, from July to December 2020, the trend of export is relatively strong compared with that of domestic, forming the characteristics of slow recovery abroad.
In 2017-2020, exports are gradually picking up, mainly contributed by Africa and Europe. Recently, the market share of Europe has increased significantly. In the first two years, the export to North America has continued to increase significantly, but it has dropped in the near future. Africa and South America showed a slight pick-up. The scale of low-speed electric vehicles in Southeast Asia is huge, which is a good innovation breakthrough.
5. In 2020, 1.17 million new energy passenger cars will be produced, accounting for 31% of the total points and 6.7% of the total sales
The overall driving range and new energy integral performance of new energy vehicles in China have continued to improve in the past two years. According to the certificate data, it is estimated that the output of new energy passenger vehicles from January to December of 20 years is 1.17 million, an increase of 14% over the same period of 2019. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is basically the same as that of passenger Federation, forming a relatively stable production and sales situation.
In 2020, the new energy points will reach 5.42 million, an increase of 7% over the same period in 19 years. In December of 20, the average score of new energy vehicles was 4.6 points, while in September of 19, the average score of new energy vehicles was 5 points, which decreased by 6% in December of 20.
Recently, new energy vehicles of joint venture brands have a stable and strong performance, while Tesla and others have a strong performance. The overall performance of independent new energy points is under pressure. It’s easier to get the points in the early stage of independent new energy, but it’s too difficult to get the points in the near future. The differentiation trend of independent new energy is obvious. Relatively speaking, the overall performance of new force auto companies is excellent, and joint venture brands still need to prove their ability by sales volume. China Automobile Circulation Association: scan and analysis of automobile market from December 28 to December 31, 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: in March 2020, the sales volume of domestic narrow sense passenger car market reached 1.045 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4%. China Automobile Circulation Association: in April 2020, China’s import automobile market monthly report China Automobile Circulation Association: in the first quarter of 2020, 57 new authorized 4S stores of luxury brands were added 41 online 4S stores: China Automobile Circulation Association: sales data of various brands in the automobile industry in February 2020 Tesla: revenue of 4q20 is US $10.744 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 46%, exceeding expectations Weilai: 3q20’s revenue is 4.526 billion yuan, higher than expected. Weilai: 2q20’s revenue is 3.72 billion yuan, up 146.5% year on year Chinese suppliers may be the most competitive suppliers in the world Tesla: 2q20 revenue fell 5% year on year to US $6.036 billion Asia Pacific Auto Industry Report: Auto World in post covid19 era (with download)
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