The following is the Questionnaire survey of bankers in Beijing in the first quarter of 2022 From People’s Bank of China recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Beijing Economic Data.
1、 Banker’s macroeconomic heat index
The banker’s macroeconomic heat index was 33.8%, down 11.5 and 0.7 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter. Among them, 67.6% of bankers believe that the current macro-economy is “normal”, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous quarter; 32.4% of bankers thought it was “cold”, unchanged from the previous quarter. For the next quarter, the banker’s macroeconomic heat expectation index was 42.6%, 8.8 percentage points higher than this quarter.
2、 Banking prosperity index and bank profit index
The banking boom index was 64.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year and up 2.0 percentage points from the previous quarter. The loan asset quality index was 48.7%, down 0.7 and 5.4 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter. The bank profit index was 56.1%, down 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year and up 6.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.
3、 Overall loan demand index
The overall demand index for loans was 67.6%, down 5.4 percentage points from the same period last year and up 4.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. By industry, the manufacturing loan demand index was 64.3%, down 5.0 percentage points from the same period of last year and up 4.4 percentage points from the previous quarter; The demand index for infrastructure loans was 65.2%, up 1.5 and 7.5 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter; The demand index for wholesale and retail loans was 54.2%, down 11.5 and 3.5 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter; The real estate loan demand index was 50%, up 0.8 and 10.9 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter. In terms of enterprise scale, the loan demand indexes of large, medium, small and micro enterprises were 64.9%, 59.0% and 65.9% respectively, an increase of 1.2%, a decrease of 6.3% and a decrease of 4.5 percentage points respectively over the same period of the previous year, and an increase of 6.1%, 3.5 and 1.5 percentage points respectively over the previous quarter.
4、 Monetary Policy Perception Index
The monetary policy perception index was 62.2%, up 14.2 and 8.8 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year and the previous quarter. Among them, 25.7% of bankers believe that monetary policy is “loose”, an increase of 17.6 percentage points over the previous quarter; 73.0% of bankers believed that monetary policy was “moderate”, a decrease of 17.6 percentage points over the previous quarter. For the next quarter, the expected index of monetary policy perception was 65.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than this quarter.
Note: 1 In order to maintain the consistency with the data expression published by the head office of the people’s Bank of China, since the third quarter of 2021, all indexes in the report have been adjusted from the original point expression to percentage expression, and the calculation method remains unchanged.
2. Most indexes in banker’s survey report are calculated by diffusion index method, and all indexes range from 0% to 100%. The index is above 50%, which reflects that the index is in a good or expanding state; Less than 50% reflects that the index is in a state of deterioration or contraction. The calculation methods of each index are briefly introduced as follows:
(1) macroeconomic heat index: the diffusion index reflecting the current macroeconomic situation. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of bankers who believe that the economy is “hot” and “normal” in this quarter, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(2) Monetary Policy Perception Index: an index reflecting bankers’ perception of monetary policy. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “loose” and “moderate” monetary policy in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(3) overall loan demand index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the overall loan demand. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s loan demand in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(4) manufacturing loan demand index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the demand for manufacturing loans. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s manufacturing loan demand in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(5) infrastructure loan demand index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on infrastructure loan demand. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s infrastructure loan demand in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(6) large enterprise loan demand index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the loan demand of large enterprises. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s loan demand for large enterprises in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(7) loan demand index of medium-sized enterprises: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the loan demand of medium-sized enterprises. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s loan demand for medium-sized enterprises in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(8) loan demand index of small and micro enterprises: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the loan demand of small and micro enterprises. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “growth” and “basically unchanged” of the bank’s loan demand for small and micro enterprises in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(9) banking prosperity index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on the overall operation of banks. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of “good” and “average” of the bank’s operating conditions in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
(10) bank profit index: a diffusion index reflecting bankers’ judgment on bank profits. The calculation method of the index is to calculate the proportion of the bank’s “profit (loss)” and “flat” in this quarter among all the bankers surveyed, and then add the weights of 1 and 0.5 respectively.
3. The data in the text is kept to one decimal place. If the data after subtracting from the same period or the previous quarter is different from the previous report, it is mainly caused by rounding. More reading: People’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey report of urban depositors in the first quarter of 2019 people’s Bank of China: implementation report of China’s monetary policy in Q1 2018 (download attached) People’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey of urban depositors in the first quarter of 2022 people’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey of bankers in the third quarter of 2021 people’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey of urban depositors in the third quarter of 2021 people’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey of entrepreneurs in the third quarter of 2021 people’s Bank of China: statistical data report of social financing scale stock in February 2022 people’s Bank of China: financial operation report of Hubei Province (2021) Beijing Bureau of Statistics: 2015 Beijing Municipal Statistical Bulletin on national economic and social development people’s Bank of China: bankers’ questionnaire survey report in the first quarter of 2019 people’s Bank of China: financial operation report of Jiangsu Province (2021) People’s Bank of China: questionnaire survey report on entrepreneurs in the first quarter of 2019 people’s Bank of China: report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the second quarter of 2021 people’s Bank of China: report on the internationalization of RMB in 2020 people’s Bank of China: the overall operation of the payment system in the second quarter of 2019
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