Brokerage ReportNew energy vehicle industry

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Sales of new energy vehicles will resume strong growth from 2021. The global sales of new energy vehicles have increased from 565000 in 2015 to 2.32 million in 2019, of which the sales of passenger cars have increased from 450000 to 2.1 million. Due to the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic, we predict that the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles will drop by 20-25% to 1.58-1.7 million vehicles in 2020, and the growth momentum will continue in 2021 and beyond. We predict that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7.6-8.5 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35-38%, accounting for about 9-10% of the total vehicle sales in 2025, higher than 2.3% in 2019.

Tesla continues to dominate the global new energy vehicle market. Tesla has been the best-selling brand in the field of new energy vehicles since it launched the model 3 model with competitive price in 2018. We do not expect this leadership to change in the medium term due to the increased capacity of Tesla’s new plants in China and the global delivery of model y models. Local supply chain participants will benefit from capacity growth at Tesla’s Shanghai plant.

BYD will benefit from the expansion of battery business, the launch of a new generation of electric passenger vehicles and the global coverage of new energy commercial vehicles. BYD is one of the pioneers in the field of new energy vehicles and has a wide influence in the world. In the past 10 years, the company’s 9 / 12 meter electric bus has successfully entered the world’s top airport feeder vehicles and urban transportation systems with the use of safe and durable lithium iron phosphate batteries. Since 2010, BYD has sold more than 55000 electric buses in more than 300 cities in more than 50 countries / regions. With the popularity of electric vehicles in China, we expect a new round of electric vehicle upgrading and electrification in overseas markets, and continue to support BYD’s capacity expansion.

Geely’s “blue action” initiative creates a first mover advantage for the company. Geely announced its “blue action” plan in 2015, when most of China’s auto makers put their resources into multi-functional sports vehicles, aiming to achieve 90% electrification of models by 2020. Up to now, Geely’s electric vehicle model is less than 90%; however, since 2015, Geely has successfully produced leading brand and launched geometric new energy brand. Geely is on track to integrate Volvo, Jixing and other brands. Based on its strong financial position and sufficient local resources, we believe Geely will continue to maintain a leading position in the development of new energy vehicles.

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