Chinese economy

Second hand housing owners expected to increase in January 2021 From Shell Research Institute

The following is the Second hand housing owners expected to increase in January 2021 From Shell Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy.

In January 2021, the expectation of second-hand housing owners will increase, and the number of new listing will increase and the price will rise in most cities. With the rapid de marketization of the market, the total number of houses on sale continued to decline, and the absolute scale at the end of January hit a new low since 2019. From the perspective of the future: in terms of supply, it is difficult for the owners to reduce their expectation of price rise in the short term, and they have strong observation mood in a certain period of time; in terms of demand, more regulation and tightening in late January will gradually show the inhibitory effect on investment demand. Under the comprehensive influence, the pace of market transaction slows down. It is expected that the volume of transaction will first cool down in the first half of the year, and then the market expectation will gradually stabilize, and the owner side quotation tends to be rational, which will narrow the increase of transaction price.

In January and January, the expectation of second-hand housing owners increased, and the number of new listing increased and the price rose in most cities

Since 2021, the market has been hot. Consumers, out of worry about the rise of house prices after the festival, or out of worry about the possibility of tightening regulation and losing the qualification to buy houses, often rush to buy houses before the Spring Festival. Under the influence of the increase in the number of visitors, the owners are reluctant to sell or raise their prices. The short-term contradiction between supply and demand in the market intensifies, and the turnover price rises, which further drives the expectation of second-hand house owners to increase, Listing activity increased. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in January 2021, the number of newly listed second-hand houses in 18 key cities [1] increased by 8.8% compared with that in December 2020, ending the continuous month on month decline trend since August 2020; the number of newly listed houses in January exceeded twice that in the same period of 2020.

[1] The 18 key cities include: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dalian, Tianjin, Langfang, Xi’an, Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Changsha, Chongqing and Chengdu.

In January 2021, driven by the increase of market volume and price, the owners of second-hand houses in Shanghai were more active in listing, and the number of new listing increased by more than 30% month on month. Chongqing, Hangzhou, Beijing and other cities have also increased the number of new listing. Langfang, Dalian, Tianjin, Qingdao and other northern cities, the activity of second-hand housing owners continued to be low, and the number of new listing continued to decline month on month. In January, the average price of newly listed houses in 18 key cities increased month on month, except Nanjing, which slightly decreased by 0.4%.

02. Rapid market deregulation drives the number of houses available for sale to a new low since 2019

As of the end of January 2021, the sales volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities has decreased by 4.2% compared with the end of December 2020, which is the fourth month in a row, and the absolute level has dropped to a new low since 2019. The continuous month on month decline in the sales volume of second-hand housing is mainly affected by the rapid deionization of second-hand housing in recent months. Compared with the same period in 2020, the number of houses sold at the end of January decreased by 4.8%.

Among the 18 key cities, the first tier cities ranked the top four in terms of the month on month decline in housing sales at the end of January. The total house sales in Shanghai decreased by 18% on a month on month basis and by more than 30% on a year-on-year basis, with the largest decline on a month on month basis and the lowest absolute level since January 2019. Beijing and Shenzhen are also affected by the growth of trading volume, showing a declining trend on a year-on-month basis, with the sales volume at a historical low.

03. The investment demand is suppressed and the owners wait and see, and the future trading volume takes the lead in cooling down

Since January, the high market heat has led to the tightening of regulatory policies in many places. First tier cities, Hefei, Hangzhou and other cities have intensively introduced new regulatory policies to restrict the investment demand side by restricting purchase and sales, increasing the exemption period of value-added tax, and strengthen supervision from the financial side to prevent illegal inflow of operating loans and other funds into the property market.

The number of houses available for sale has continued to drop to a historical low. Under the contradiction of market supply and demand, it is difficult for the owners to reduce their expectations of house prices in the short term, and the wait-and-see mood is aggravating. It is expected that the volume of second-hand housing in the first half of the year will be the first to cool down, and then the market expectation will gradually stabilize, and the owner’s quotation will tend to be rational, which will narrow the increase of transaction price.

Shell Research Institute: the turnover of rental market in 18 key cities in China has increased by 26.8% compared with last week. Shell Research Institute: from January to may 2020, real estate enterprise bond financing reached 562.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Shell Research Institute: the second-hand housing market in key cities will continue to recover in May 2020. Shell Research Institute: how does the epidemic affect the decision-making preference of housing consumers? Shell Research Institute: January to July 2020 Beijing new housing monthly report Shell Research Institute: Housing rental report from 2019 to 2020 Shell Research Institute: urban house purchase kinetic energy research from the perspective of full circulation Shell Research Institute: China real estate pre-sale fund supervision Tracking Research Report Shell Research Institute: March 9-15, 2020 Chain 18 city second hand housing market turnover continues to rise rapidly Shell Research Institute: in May 2020, there will be about 15900 second-hand housing online signings in Beijing, with a month on month increase of 20.5% Conch Research Institute: in February 2020, the total transaction volume of housing rental in 18 key cities decreased by 78.9% on a month on month basis. Conch Research Institute: in the first quarter of 2020, the real estate enterprise bonds raised 394.4 billion yuan, up 5% on a year-on-year basis. Conch Research Institute: from January to February 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities decreased by 55% on a year-on-year basis About 15900 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%

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