Chinese economy

The total amount of social logistics in China is 300 trillion yuan, with a total revenue of 10.5 trillion yuan From Logistics operation in 2020

The following is the The total amount of social logistics in China is 300 trillion yuan, with a total revenue of 10.5 trillion yuan From Logistics operation in 2020 recommended by And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy.

In 2020, the macro-economy is facing unprecedented severe challenges. As the pioneer of economic development, logistics actively implements the concept of high-quality development and deepens the structural reform of the supply side. The annual logistics operation rebounds against the trend and grows steadily. The logistics scale reaches a new level. The total revenue of the logistics industry keeps growing, the logistics operation achieves quality and efficiency improvement, and the unit cost tends to be stable It provides strong support for the development of economy, the protection of people’s livelihood and the promotion of economic development.

01. The overall operation of logistics is stable, which strongly supports the development of national economy

(1) The scale of logistics has reached a new level, and the total amount of social logistics has exceeded 300 trillion

The total amount of social logistics has reached a new level of 300 trillion yuan. In 2020, the total amount of social logistics in China will reach 300.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in terms of comparable prices. From a quarterly perspective, the growth rates in the first quarter, the first half of the year and the first three quarters were – 7.3%, – 0.5% and 2.0% respectively. The growth of logistics scale continued to recover, and the growth rate picked up in the fourth quarter was further accelerated.

The total revenue of logistics industry keeps growing. In 2020, the total revenue of logistics industry will be 10.5 trillion yuan, up 2.2% year on year. Since the third quarter, the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has changed from negative to positive, and since the fourth quarter, it has shown an accelerated recovery trend, returning to the level of last year.

(2) In depth development of multi industry integration, the vitality of logistics enterprises continued to increase

The service ability of logistics enterprises is further improved, which provides an important guarantee for opening up the supply chain, coordinating the industrial chain and creating the value chain. In 2020, China’s top 50 logistics enterprises will achieve logistics business income of 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The logistics business income of the 50th enterprise will exceed 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Logistics enterprises are deeply integrated with automobile, household appliances, electronics, medicine, cold chain, tobacco, chemical industry, metallurgy, e-commerce, retail and other manufacturing, trade and circulation industries to form a number of brand benchmarks with strong professional ability and high service quality.

Under the epidemic situation, logistics plays an increasingly important role in ensuring people’s livelihood. The rural logistics and two-way circulation channels have been further opened, and the service density has been greatly improved. The postal express logistics service network covers more than 30000 rural villages and towns, supporting consumer goods going to the countryside and agricultural products entering the city, with an output value of nearly trillion. Logistics enterprises strictly do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, promote the resumption of work and production in different regions and levels, and make every effort to ensure the stability and smooth flow of the supply chain, which provides strong support for ensuring the smooth flow of transportation and supply.

The logistics industry maintained a high level of prosperity. With the steady progress of the resumption of work and production, the business volume and order level of logistics enterprises have steadily picked up, the supply and demand of logistics have picked up simultaneously, and the market vitality has continued to increase. The business volume index and new order index of China’s logistics industry boom index have been in the recovery channel since March. The recovery accelerated in the fourth quarter, and rose to a higher level of 56.9% and 55.8% respectively in December. The difference between the two has narrowed, and the relationship between supply and demand has become more balanced.

(3) The employment situation of logistics industry is good, and the number of new jobs is over one million

The ability to absorb employment of logistics industry has been continuously enhanced, and the number of employees has increased rapidly. According to the calculation, by the end of 2019, the number of employees of logistics posts in China (including legal entities of logistics related industries and employees of individual businesses engaged in logistics activities, as well as employees of logistics posts of legal entities of industries such as industry, wholesale and retail) is 51.91 million, an increase of 3.6% over 2016 and an average annual growth of 0.9%.

(information of logistics employees in 2019)

From the perspective of structure, first, logistics professionals maintain a rapid growth, and the degree of specialization of logistics personnel is improved. The number of employees in China’s logistics related industries exceeded 12 million, an increase of 16% over 2016 and an average annual growth of 3.9%. Second, transport logistics is still the main body of employment, with rapid growth of road transport and slow down of railway and waterway; third, new industries such as e-commerce express and multimodal transport become the main driving force for new employment. During the 13th five year plan, the express logistics industry has attracted more than 1 million new jobs, with an average annual growth of 10%, and the multimodal transport and transport agency industry has attracted more than 150000 new jobs The average annual growth rate in five years is 8%, which is faster than the average level of the industry.

02. Supply side structural reform has been promoted, and the quality of logistics development has been steadily improved

In 2020, the logistics demand structure will continue to adjust, and the new driving force will play a leading role. The demand for high-tech logistics, international logistics and online retail logistics in the industrial field has developed rapidly, and the driving role of new industries, new formats and new products has continued to increase.

(1) Industrial Logistics stabilized and rebounded, and new kinetic energy played a significant leading role

In 2020, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 2.8% year on year, with a decrease of 8.4% in the first quarter, a decrease of 1.3% in the first half of the year, and an increase of 1.2% in the first three quarters, showing a trend of quarter by quarter recovery. Driven by domestic demand and overseas exports, the growth rate of each month in the fourth quarter maintained a rapid growth range of 6-8%, rising to a new high in the year.

From the perspective of structure, the significant rebound of manufacturing industry has strongly supported the steady recovery of industrial logistics demand. On the one hand, the demand for equipment manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing logistics is improving. Among them, benefiting from the substantial improvement of manufacturing investment and mechanical and electrical products export, the logistics demand of most equipment manufacturing industries maintained a growth rate of more than 10%, and the contribution rate of equipment manufacturing industry to the growth of industrial logistics demand exceeded 70%, which played a prominent supporting role; the rapid growth of overseas epidemic prevention and control material demand led to a sharp rebound of logistics demand of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. On the other hand, the demand for new kinetic energy related logistics continued to increase, and the high-tech manufacturing industry maintained a leading position. In 2020, the logistics demand of high-tech manufacturing industry will grow by 7.1%, 4.3% faster than the total logistics of industrial products, and the transformation of new and old kinetic energy will be further accelerated.

(2) International logistics is generally stable and good, and import and export logistics is picking up in an all-round way

Under the influence of the epidemic, the world economic growth and Global trade suffered a serious impact, but China’s economy showed strong market vitality and comprehensive competitiveness, and the import and export flow quickly stabilized.

The super large-scale market has obvious advantages, and the import demand has increased steadily. In 2020, China’s import logistics volume will increase by 8.9% year on year, and the growth rate will increase by 4.7 percentage points over the previous year. From the situation of the year, it maintained positive growth in each month, accelerated in the second half of the year, and reached a high growth rate of 10% in the third and fourth quarters. In terms of different commodity categories, the import volume of resource-based products such as crude oil and iron ore increased by 7.3% and 9.5% respectively, and the import volume of agricultural products such as grain and meat increased by 28% and 60.4% respectively.

Export logistics demand maintained a steady and rapid growth. The overseas epidemic continues to spread and has a trend of accelerating the spread. The demand of major economies such as Europe and the United States has changed to the demand for goods. At the same time, China’s manufacturing industry is relatively complete and the recovery speed is fast. The growth rate of export flow has increased to nearly 5%.

The “one belt, one road” initiative continues to push forward, and China EU trains are developing rapidly. In 2020, in novel coronavirus pneumonia, China and Europe played an important role in promoting the resumption of production and stabilizing the domestic and international supply chain industry chain. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China EU trains have operated more than 30000 trains in total. In 2020, they will operate 12400 trains, with the year-on-year growth of about 50% for the outbound and return trains respectively. The annual delivery of 1.135 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 56%. The annual comprehensive heavy container rate reached 98.4%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and the return heavy container rate increased significantly, an increase of 9.3 percentage points over the same period last year

(3) People’s livelihood consumption and logistics demand slowed down slightly, and the new industry still maintained strong growth

In 2020, the total amount of goods logistics of units and residents increased by 13.2% year on year, and the growth rate has remained above 10% for seven consecutive months since June. The new consumption mode has been growing against the trend and has become the biggest highlight of people’s livelihood logistics demand. The annual online retail sales of physical goods increased by 14.8%, accounting for 4.2 percentage points of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.

(4) Logistics operation improves quality and efficiency, unit logistics cost tends to be stable

The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic was affected by the new crown pneumonia in the beginning of the year. Different control measures in various places caused the poor logistics channel, scarce resources in some regions, and slow down in service effectiveness. Animal epidemic prevention and control measures promoted the increase of logistics cost. In the second half of the year, with the improvement of logistics operation efficiency, the quality and efficiency of logistics development continue to improve.

One is to improve the coordination of transportation. Multimodal transport and rail water transport will be further developed, and special railway lines and infrastructure construction will be accelerated. Efforts will be made to open up the “first kilometer” and “last kilometer”. With the rapid growth of container rail combined transport volume, the port container rail combined transport volume has reached a higher level in recent years. At the same time, the railway leads the improvement of transportation logistics service quality, and the proportion of railway freight volume in the total social freight volume will increase to nearly 10% in 2020. With the continuous optimization of railway product supply, container transportation, cold chain transportation and high-speed rail express have become new highlights of railway freight growth.

Second, multi sectoral policies and measures help enterprises to bail out, optimize the business environment, and continue to promote the reduction of administrative logistics costs. Through various efforts, the growth rate of unit logistics cost is obviously slowing down. In 2020, the ratio of total social logistics cost to GDP will be 14.7%, which will drop by 1.3 percentage points in five years. The results of logistics cost reduction and efficiency increase are remarkable.

(total cost of social logistics and its ratio to GDP in 2006-2020)

03. The pressure of logistics operation still exists, and the problem of instability still needs attention

Overall, China’s macro-economy and logistics development will maintain strong resilience in 2021, the total scale of logistics will grow steadily, the demand structure will continue to adjust, the formation of high-quality logistics service system will accelerate, and the supporting and driving role of various industries will be further enhanced. However, we should also see that there are still some problems in logistics operation that deserve attention.

(1) There is still uncertainty in the stable and sustained recovery of logistics demand

From the perspective of global development, in 2021, countries’ awareness of the epidemic situation will gradually change from unknown to known, prevention and control measures will be more targeted, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually decline. However, the trend of differentiation of international political forces, geopolitical influence and anti globalization will still exist for a long time, and the stable recovery of the world economy will still face challenges. Combined with the data of the fourth quarter of last year, the export driven industrial logistics demand may continue to grow, and the growth rate of consumption related demand will remain stable. The recovery momentum of some traditional manufacturing fields and consumption upgrading fields is more stable than that in the earlier stage, and the trend of logistics demand differentiation and structural imbalance may be more obvious.

(2) Social inventory is still at a high level

Although the demand tends to rise in the second half of 2020, the “destocking” is obviously accelerated, and the inventory level is significantly lower than that at the beginning of the epidemic, it is still at a higher level compared with the same period in history. At the end of December, the inventories of industrial enterprises and finished products increased by 5.2% and 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3 and 5.5 percentage points over the previous year.

At the same time, inventory turnover has not yet recovered, and the number of days of finished product inventory turnover of industrial enterprises has risen to 17.9, which is a higher level in recent years. Affected by this, the capital pressure of enterprises is rising, and the cost of capital occupation is rising rapidly, especially since the fourth quarter. This trend will continue in 2021.

(3) The cost of logistics enterprises rises and the overall profit fluctuates greatly

In 2020, logistics enterprises are generally under great operating pressure. According to the key survey data, from January to November 2020, the revenue and profit of the logistics business of the surveyed enterprises are still slightly lower than that of the same period of last year. 30% of the logistics enterprises are in the state of loss, and the profit margin is less than half of that of previous years. Overall, the weak profitability of logistics enterprises is mainly affected by the following factors:

First, the industry is highly competitive and service prices remain low. In 2020, the price index of logistics services will be 5% lower than that of the previous year. In the first three quarters, each month was in a downward channel. Although the index picked up in the fourth quarter, the annual average index was still below 50%. From the perspective of different types, the annual average of China’s coastal (bulk) freight index was 1039.1 points, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; the annual average of highway logistics freight index was 98.4 points, lower than the price level of the historical base period.

Second, the normalized epidemic prevention and control measures push up the operating costs of enterprises. In the field of logistics, in strict accordance with the requirements of the “work plan for the preventive comprehensive disinfection of imported cold chain food”, “technical guide for the prevention and control of new coronavirus in the production and operation of cold chain food” and “technical guide for the prevention and control of new coronavirus in the production and operation of cold chain food” formulated by various departments, preventive measures were taken in time to do a good job in the preventive disinfection of goods import, urban distribution and other links. Logistics enterprises, especially in cross-border logistics, cold chain logistics, express delivery and other fields, have significantly increased the costs related to epidemic prevention and control. According to incomplete estimates, the costs related to preventive killing and cargo monitoring in logistics field exceed 70 billion yuan. With the trend of normalization of the epidemic situation, this part of the cost may continue to grow.

Third, the logistics enterprise capital is tight, the cash flow pressure increases. At the beginning of 2020, logistics enterprises are generally more difficult to operate, coupled with the continuous outflow of cash flow brought by the general rise of operating costs, resulting in the tight liquidity of enterprises. In the second half of the year, although the operation has improved, due to the influence of the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, the payback period of accounts receivable has been extended, and the capital turnover pressure of some areas, especially small and medium-sized logistics enterprises, has intensified. From January to November, the turnover of working capital of logistics enterprises decreased by 0.1 times, and the recovery period of accounts receivable was 12% longer than that of the previous year.

In the future, China will speed up the construction of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international double circulation promoting each other. The fundamentals of high-quality development of macro-economy will not change. The basic situation of the growth of logistics market scale, the enrichment of business forms, the improvement of industry quality and efficiency, and the continuous improvement of operation efficiency will not change. Logistics will continue to be in an important period of strategic opportunities. 2021 is the beginning year and key year of the 14th five year plan. All regions and departments make scientific plans for normalized epidemic prevention and control as well as economic and social development. On the basis of sustained economic recovery and low base, the main indicators of annual logistics operation will maintain rapid growth, with some indicators showing double-digit growth, generally showing high in the front and low in the back. It is expected that the total amount of social logistics in the first quarter will increase by 10% 10-13%, and it is preliminarily estimated that it will reach 8-10% in the whole year. The demand of industrial, international and consumer logistics will continue to recover, the scale of logistics market will accelerate to expand, and the efficiency of logistics operation is expected to return to the normal level.

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