global economy

Global economic recovery faster than expected From HBR

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The covid-19 pandemic has brought many countries to a deadlock in their economies, because on the one hand, they have to maintain the blockade, on the other hand, they have to fight against the spread of the virus. But on the whole, so far, the global economy has overcome the fear of economic collapse, rebounded earlier than expected and become stronger.

Why is the global economic recovery faster than expected? What drives the gap between expectation and reality? Is rapid recovery sustainable?

Economic austerity is brutal, but the lasting impact is often “systematically and cyclically exaggerated, because the impact exacerbates the general economic pessimism.”.

It is widely predicted that a new round of great depression will bring about sovereign default, banking system collapse and deflation.

However, after the stable price fluctuation, despite the expansion of the scale of borrowing, the cost of sovereign borrowing around the world has generally declined, and the banking system has almost no liquidity problem.

It is predicted that the unemployment rate, an important economic health indicator, will remain high in the United States after the end of 2021, and that the real estate market will be weak and the tide of bankruptcy will come.

By September, the unemployment rate in the United States was even lower than the forecast for the end of 2021. But house prices have barely fallen, and sales have returned to or near their highest levels since the housing crisis. Many parts of the U.S. economy have returned to pre crisis levels of activity, as well as around the world.

In the final analysis, the capacity of the hospital will be the constraint to maintain the balance between economic activities and epidemic control. Although it is expected that there will be positive growth in the last quarter of this year and by 2021, if the fiscal stimulus measures are not extended, the speed of recovery may be slowed down, or in extreme cases, the economy may return to negative growth.

For enterprises, crisis usually leads to pessimism and fear. The reaction itself carries risks. However, 14% of the companies “usually increase both revenue and profit during economic downturn”. Read more: Accenture: bold moves in tough times: how will the global economic recovery unfold after the “new crown recession” judged by three major international institutions? The novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to be global economic recovery or wait until 2025 World Economic Forum: to achieve real economic recovery, give more support to SMEs: IMF: it is expected that the global economy will recover in the next two years HBR: 34% of the US working population is engaged in freelance occupation IATA: the next five years, the prospect of air travel: McKinsey: the new normal of consumers in the post new crown pneumonia era. Analyst economist: Japan’s cherry blossoms bloom early and late, indicating economic recovery WTTC: tourism is crucial to the economic recovery in the Asia Pacific Region Tesla rushes into the top 10: 250 000 small businesses face bankruptcy in 2020

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