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It is expected that the global economy will increase the most in 40 years in 2021 From IMF

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According to the IMF, global GDP will increase the most in 40 years after the decline in 2020, but the growth rate of GDP is significantly lower than the expected trend before the outbreak of the epidemic, and the economies relying on tourism will be most affected. The IMF expects global GDP to grow by 6% this year, higher than the previous forecast of 5.5%.

But the agency also pointed out that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook, which largely depends on the success of the new crown vaccine promotion. Greater progress in vaccination could improve economic growth forecasts, while new variants of the virus that cannot be defended by vaccines could lead to a serious downgrading of growth expectations.

In particular, the IMF mentioned the risk of central bank interest rates – if U.S. interest rates rise further in an unexpected way, a multi speed recovery may bring financial risks. This could lead to overvalued assets and then force a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which worsens recovery prospects, especially for some highly leveraged emerging markets and developing economies. As a result, the IMF warned that central banks need to provide clear communication when they begin to tighten monetary policy.

Let’s take a look at this report. The IMF expects the developed economies to grow by 5.1% in 2021, and the emerging and developing economies to grow by 6.7%. In addition, the IMF expects:

This year’s US GDP growth was 6.4%, higher than the previous forecast of 5.1%. IMF chief economist gopinat pointed out that the U.S. GDP forecast in 2022 will exceed the pre epidemic level.

China’s GDP growth this year was 8.4%, higher than the previous forecast of 8.1%. Gopinat believes that the improvement of China’s economic growth expectations is mainly due to the improvement of the external environment.

The EU’s GDP growth rate this year is expected to rise to 4%, the UK’s GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.3%, and Japan’s GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.3%.

The only region whose economic growth rate has been lowered is the “ASEAN Five”, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The overall forecast growth of these five countries in 2021 has been lowered to 4.9% from the previous forecast of 5.2%.

The IMF pointed out that the losses caused by the epidemic in the middle and later stages may be smaller than those after the financial crisis. In addition, compared with the impact of the great depression, the low-income countries and emerging markets will suffer more.

According to Reuters, the meeting will discuss adding $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) to the IMF, and may also discuss redistributing SDRs to support troubled economies. Discussions will also include proposals for debt relief and issues related to co stimulus. Finally, governments and multilateral organizations may face pressure to reduce vaccine inequality between rich and poor countries.

Special mention was made of the tax increase plan. IMF chief economist gopinat said the IMF also needs to study US President Biden’s corporate tax plan, which has long supported the global minimum tax rate.

French finance minister le Maire said a global agreement on international taxes is within reach. We welcome us support for minimum corporate tax.

IMF: China is expected to remain the largest engine of global economic growth by 2024 IMF: global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2016 IMF: global GDP is expected to shrink by 4.9% in 2020 IMF: global economy is expected to recover in the next two years IMF: world economic outlook in October 2017 IMF: Asia Pacific Economic Outlook in 2017 (with report) IMF: US debt to GDP ratio in 2023 IMF: aging and population reduction may lead to a 25% decline in Japan’s GDP after 40 years. IMF: global government debt is expected to reach almost the same scale as global GDP (about 90 trillion US dollars) in 2020. IMF: world economic outlook in October 2020. IMF: the proportion of over 65 year olds in the United States will reach 20% in 16 years. Will Japan become the second Japan? IMF: Asia Pacific economy is expected to shrink by 1.6% in 2020 IMF: global economic growth is expected to be reduced to negative 4.9% in 2020 China’s GDP growth 1% IMF: global high house prices threaten economic stability IMF: oil demand will peak in 2041, Middle East’s $2 trillion wealth will be exhausted in 15 years

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