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The following is the US $4.5 trillion to stimulate economic recovery From Economic think tank recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: global economy .
To reduce the unemployment rate to $3.5 trillion, we need to find that the real value of the jobs of the US think tank can be reduced to $3.5 trillion.
“We need stimulus, and we need to act now,” said Mark Paul, a political economist at the new Florida Institute and co-author of the report. “Every day we wait, we risk losing more people from the economy. Every day we wait, more people are facing evictions and defaulting on their bills. “
The latest bipartisan stimulus plan will cost $908 billion, but the talks are in turmoil as House Democrats, Senate Republicans and the white house still have differences on key issues, such as the economic stimulus review, aid to state governments, and accountability to businesses in the epidemic.
Democratic leaders supported the $908 billion proposal, McConnell supported a $500 billion proposal, and the White House’s $916 billion proposal was quickly rejected.
“Congress is currently discussing an economic stimulus plan, which will keep our real unemployment estimates at around double digits,” Paul said. “We have the tools to get the economy back on track. Unfortunately, Congress lacks the political will to act. “
The analysis is based on an estimate of the current November unemployment rate of 13%. Although the official unemployment rate for November was 6.7%, economists warned that the real unemployment rate would be much higher if the decline in labor force participation since February was taken into account.
The analysis shows that if 3.5% is taken as the full employment level of the unemployment rate and 13% is taken as a better estimate of the actual unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap is 9.5 percentage points. Adding this gap to the current GDP of nearly $21.3 trillion estimated in November means that the potential GDP will exceed $25.7 trillion, or that fiscal policy needs to fill the output gap of $4.5 trillion. “
“The cost of going too small far exceeds the cost of doing too much”
The highest price tag for the Republican stimulus package was $1 trillion proposed in July, while the White House’s highest price was about $1.9 trillion put forward before the election. These two proposals are no longer considered.
“What’s most frustrating is that the macroeconomic policy community basically agrees that the costs of too little stimulus far outweigh the cost of too much,” he said
Economists warn that the risk of spending less than needed is higher than the risk of spending more than needed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell told the Senate Banking Committee last week that “the risk of excessive action is less than the risk of insufficient action.” “The current financial support will really promote economic development and prevent downward risks.”
“It’s better to be too small at the moment than not to have any stimulus.”
If there is no stimulus package by the end of this year, the two programs under the cares act will expire on December 26, when up to 12 million Americans are expected to lose unemployment benefits. Paid sick leave, aid to state and local governments, and other remedies will also lapse.
“We’re seeing some key projects running out of money, and that’s completely avoidable,” Paul said
But as the economy seems to be recovering, the size of the Republican bailout plan has shrunk, even as millions of Americans are being pushed to the brink of the financial crisis.
“I’m deeply concerned about the bill that’s being proposed,” Paul said “But I do think that stimulus that is too small at the moment is better than no stimulus at all.” More reading: 12 pictures of U.S. economic recovery: Eight Immortals crossing the sea how to promote the construction of economic think tanks: the road of think tank development: in 2019, the number of cities with a million population in China will reach 130, surpassing the whole western world WGC: in 2014, Q2, Chinese consumers bought 144 tons of gold Year on year decrease of 45% UK employment Institute: UK’s fall layoffs may reach 450000 4th Industrial Revolution: the light of manufacturing technology innovation Bank of America Merrill Lynch: US interest rate hike up to 4.5% UN: world economic situation and outlook in 2016 %Credit cards in the post epidemic era: dying out or breaking out? International Financial Association: in October 2020, emerging market stocks received $6.3 billion of non resident capital net inflow into the Korea customs office: in the first 20 days of October 2020, South Korea’s exports decreased by 5.8% year on year. IMF: it is predicted that the global government debt in 2020 will reach almost the same size as the global GDP (about 90 trillion US dollars). Korea customs office: in the first 20 days of September 2020, South Korea’s exports will increase by 3.6% and China’s exports will increase by 8.7%
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