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The following is the In the first quarter of 2021, the overall DRAM average price will stop falling and stabilize From TrendForce recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: TrendForce, Hardware equipment industry.
According to the semiconductor research office of trendforce, DRAM, including PC DRAM (accounting for 13% of the total supply bits), server DRAM (34%), mobile DRAM (40%), graphics DRAM (5%) and consumer DRAM (8%) are much healthier than NAND flash in terms of overall oligopoly. After more than two quarters of inventory correction, in order to slow down the cost rise caused by the expected subsequent price increase, the buyer is expected to start to raise the inventory level in the first quarter of 2021, so as to support the price. The average selling unit price of DRAM will stop falling and stabilize, and even may rise slightly.
The booming of pen phone delivery boosted the manufacturers’ stock momentum, and the price of PC DRAM was roughly the same
From the perspective of demand, the overall production of notebook computers in the first quarter of 2021 is estimated to be about 52.7 million units. In addition to the impact of the traditional off-season effect and the decrease of working days in the lunar new year, plus the high base period in the fourth quarter of 2020, the estimated Quarterly decrease is about 9%. However, most of the PC OEM brand manufacturers are benefited from the booming pen phone shipment this year (yoy20%), and the inventory level of PC DRAM is only 4-5 weeks. Therefore, it is estimated that the intention of manufacturers to increase inventory in the short term will continue to boost the demand momentum. From the supply side, Samsung, SK Hynix and micron, the three original DRAM manufacturers, have not seen a significant increase in the overall supply position in the last two quarters. In addition, thanks to the booming momentum of mobile DRAM, all factories have planned to shift their production capacity to this field since the end of the third quarter, leading to the crowding out of PC and server DRAM capacity. Therefore, the average price of PC DRAM is not easy to fall in the first quarter of 2021 when the demand is strong and the supply is not significantly growing.
Affected by capacity squeeze and Meiguang power outage, the price of server DRAM will change from roughly flat to slightly higher
From the perspective of demand, since the first quarter of each year is the off-season cycle of brand factories, and the purchasing power of server DRAM in the first quarter of each year is generally lower than that of the whole year, however, it is necessary to pay attention to the data center’s replenishment action in advance on the eve of DRAM price rise. From the supply side, due to the recovery of mobile DRAM purchasing kinetic energy, DRAM’s three original factories have successively transferred server DRAM capacity to mobile DRAM since September 2020, which is similar to the supply situation of PC DRAM. Under the effect of capacity crowding, the growth of server DRAM supply in the first quarter of 2021 is very limited.
On the whole, trendforce Group believes that factors such as falling prices and tight production capacity have led to a significant increase in the market consensus on early preparation. Looking forward to 2021, although the first quarter of each year is the off-season cycle of brand factory shipment, under the anticipated psychological influence of the eve of price reversal and Meguiar’s power outage, the buyer will be stimulated to make up the order in advance. Moreover, at this stage, since the market has been led by some product lines in the near future, along with the booming demand for mobile DRAM and PC DRAM, the downward range of server DRAM price has the opportunity to end in advance, and the price will be officially increased in the first quarter of next year.
Mobile DRAM price is roughly flat, only small brand factory contract price is likely to rise
From the perspective of demand, the market will continue to be affected by Huawei’s ban in the first quarter of 2021. It is expected that other brands will continue to maintain a positive production and material preparation mode. Therefore, it is expected that the total production in the first quarter of next year is expected to be close to 330 million units, with a quarterly decrease of 6%. From the supply side, as mentioned earlier, DRAM’s three original factories did not significantly increase the growth of supply in the first quarter of next year. In addition, the demand for mobile DRAM in the fourth quarter of this year has not yet been delivered, so the supply in this field is still tight.
On the whole, trendforce group forecasts that the contract price of mobile DRAM in the first quarter of next year will be roughly the same as that in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of brand factories with large demand, under the support of the previously agreed special deal and a large amount of demand, the price fluctuation is not large; on the contrary, due to the crowding out effect, the small demand capacity and the low supply willingness of the original factory, the contract price in the first quarter of next year may not rule out the possibility of a slight increase, with the range falling within 3%.
Graphics DRAM prices rose slightly, gddr6 is estimated to rise by 5-10%
From the demand side, new graphics cards, new game machines and mining machines continue to play the three pillars of graphics DRAM demand, driving graphics DRAM to become the first price hiker among DRAM products. Trendforce group forecasts that the price of mainstream product gddr6 will rise by about 5-10% in the first quarter of 2021, driven by strong demand. From the supply side, most of the existing original manufacturers of graphics DRAM are produced with more mature 20nm or 1xnm. However, the improvement of demand for mobile DRAM, which also uses a large number of 1xnm processes, has pushed out the production capacity of graphics DRAM. Even if this phenomenon enters the first quarter of next year, the supply fulfillment rate of the original manufacturers is still poor, so the price rise trend is the most clear.
Consumer DRAM prices are roughly flat, DDR3 supply will be reduced, prices will be the first to pull up
From the perspective of demand, DDR3 is driven by TV, on-board box and Netcom related products, and the demand for small capacity (DDR3 1 / 2 / 4GB and below) products is gradually rising. Many small and medium-sized customers who adopt short-term contracts have been faced with price increases in advance, but the first-line customers are still roughly flat. From the supply side, SK Hynix has officially stopped production of DDR3 2GB, and Samsung has gradually transferred the old DRAM process of line 13 to the production of CIS; the price of DDR3 products is the first to be pushed up as Korean manufacturers gradually reduce their output. However, DDR4 products have high correlation with mainstream PC and server products, so the price performance of DDR4 products is consistent with these two products, and they are not easy to fall.
Trend force: DRAM spot price has long lost its upward trend, but DRAM price is still under pressure in the second half of the year DRAM price expands to 13% – 18% trendforce: in the fourth quarter, storage is still in oversupply, and the overall average price will drop by nearly 10%. Trendforce: it is estimated that the global MacBook shipment volume in 2021 is expected to reach 1, 5.5 million units with an annual growth of 23.1% trendforce: the global DRAM output value will reach 17.46 billion US dollars in the third quarter of 2020 The total output value increases by only 2% in the third quarter of 2020. Trendforce: it is estimated that the global output of notebook computers will exceed 180 million units in 2020. Trendforce: the total output value of Q4 global DRAM is 10.27 billion US dollars in 2015, and the decline is 9.1% on a month-on-month basis. Trendforce: it is estimated that the output value of global foundry industry will increase by 14% in the third quarter of 2020 Trend force: demand for graphics cards continues to strengthen, graphics DRAM price is easy to rise in the fourth quarter, but difficult to fall. Trendforce: it is estimated that the decline of global server shipment in the third quarter of 2020 will expand to 4.9% trendforce: after the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD will become the fourth largest IC design manufacturer in the world. Trendforce: the global output value of automotive chips will be 21 billion US dollars in 2021
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