The following is the In Q2 of 2022, the global traditional PC shipment fell by 15.3% year-on-year for the second consecutive quarter From IDC recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: IDC, PC.
Affected by the spread of the global COVID-19, the situation in Ukraine and high global inflation, consumer electronics demand has further weakened, and voices about “chip chopping tide” have emerged one after another. According to the data of the China Academy of communications technology, from January to May this year, the total shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market was 108million, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%;
According to IDC’s latest report, global traditional PC shipments fell 15.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022, the second consecutive quarterly decline. In addition, Gartner reports that global smartphone sales are expected to decline by 7.1% in 2022, while global PC shipments will decline by 9.5%.
Consumer electronics chip design manufacturers bear the brunt of the “chopping tide”. At present, they have begun to spread to the wafer foundry link, but vehicle specification MCU chips are still popular. Guotai Junan research report said that the boom of the semiconductor industry may have peaked this time and is expected to remain high in the future.
Current situation of cutting orders: ice and fire
According to media reports, the supply chain has recently received Samsung’s notice that the time schedule originally scheduled to suspend procurement until the end of July has been postponed to at least the end of August, and some parts will not be purchased before the end of the year.
According to industry insiders, Qualcomm has cut orders for Xiaolong 8 series by about 10% – 15%, and is expected to reduce the price of two flagship mobile chips by 30% – 40% by the end of the year to clear inventory. MediaTek cut its orders for entry-level and mid-range 5g chips signed with suppliers in the fourth quarter of 2022 by 30% to 35%; IDM giant Ti also informed customers that the imbalance between supply and demand would be eased in the second half of the year, and analog ICs led by power management chips would face a sharp drop in prices. Intel CFO said that PC chip revenue is facing a declining crisis.
The person in charge of the chip sales department of a listed company in a share market told first finance that the consumer market did decline significantly compared with the same period last year. “The main reason is that the market demand is declining, including MCU, IDU, memory chips, etc. among the consumer customers I met, the demand of better companies may decline by 15% to 20%, and that of poor companies may decline by 50% to 60%
In terms of price, the price of some chips is directly “halved”.
According to Superman data of electronic components B2B e-commerce platform chip, the m32f030, F103 series and m8s003 series of STMicroelectronics (st) have all seen steady price reductions. NXP’s 16 bit mcus9s12g128avlfr has fallen to a low level below 100 yuan.
“The market demand is decreasing, and the demand for chips is also decreasing. At the same time, the inventory of chip manufacturers who mainly focus on the consumer market is at a high level. In order to destock, there will be a market strategy to reduce prices.” The person in charge said.
Take MCU as an example. Since this year, the market price of general consumer MCU has continued to fall, and the problem of MCU supply exceeding demand has become more prominent. For example, the price of the popular stm32f103rct6 fell back to double digits from the high of 100 yuan in the first quarter, and the domestic alternative chip brand GD was sold at a competitive low price.
Cairongzong, a spokesman for shengqun, a large MCU design company, said recently that at present, the inventory of the original factory and the agent side is up to 9 months, which is twice the normal level, affecting the shipment in the second half of the year, and the sales unit price is also lower than that in the first half of the year. Because the global economy is still affected by inflation in the second half of the year, and customers generally expect that there is room for MCU price reduction, the speed of pulling goods is slowed down. It is estimated that the market condition of middle-end consumer MCU will stabilize until the first half of 2023.
However, the delivery time of high-end MCU is still tight, and the vehicle specification MCU chip is still hot. On the whole, car level chips and industry level chips are still popular tracks. “The whole market is still going well, first, photovoltaic and energy storage chips, second, automotive electronics, and third, industrial automation.” The person in charge said.
According to chip Superman, the automotive intelligent power IC upper / lower bridge arm switch vnq7050ajtr increased from 80 yuan in January this year to 500 yuan in June, a five fold increase in just half a year.
Chip design manufacturers need to develop new application scenarios
The crisis is gradually rising under the trend of cutting orders, and consumer electronics chip design factories are most affected.
Hengxuan Technology (688608.sh), which is mainly engaged in type-C audio chips, ordinary Bluetooth audio chips and intelligent Bluetooth audio chips, recently disclosed that the company’s operating income in the first half of 2022 was about 687 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 81.5 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.90%; The non net profit deducted was about 25million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 81.57%. The main reasons for the decline in performance are the sluggish demand in the consumer electronics market and the increase in R & D investment.
For chip design enterprises, they need to find new application scenarios of products to calmly cope with the decline in demand in a certain kind of market, “boarding” is the best way out at present.
However, “boarding” has a very high technical threshold and a long certification cycle. “Vehicle specification level products need to undergo long-term verification, which takes about two years, and the replacement cycle is also long. Vehicle specification level products are required to ensure a stable supply cycle of at least 5-10 years.” Hu Yang, chief analyst of the electronics industry of Hua’an securities, previously told China business.
At present, domestic manufacturers are accelerating their entry into the high-end vehicle mounted MCU market. A researcher in the electronics industry of a securities firm told China business and economics, “enterprises such as Zhaoyi innovation (603986.sh), NavInfo (002405.sz), jiefa technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of NavInfo (002405.sz), and BYD semiconductor have done the best in the field of domestic vehicle mounted MCU.”
In terms of power semiconductors, the current domestic IGBT manufacturers (IDM) mainly include Shilan micro (600460.sh), Wentai Technology (600745.sh), BYD semiconductor, time electric (688187.sh), China Resources micro (688396.sh), etc. the business scale of star semiconductor (603290.sh), a design manufacturer, is leading. In the field of MOSFET, the data of China industry information network shows that the top ten domestic market share are all overseas giants, and the domestic manufacturer Shilan micro ranks the highest, ranking 11th, but the market share is only 2%.
In terms of foundry, it has been reported recently that the wafer foundry is mature, the production capacity of the manufacturing process is loose, and the wave of price reduction is coming. The wafer foundry in Chinese Mainland has fired the first shot, and the price has been reduced by more than 10% recently.
However, first finance learned from the industrial chain that there is no price reduction trend for the leading OEM manufacturers in the mainland and overseas OEM manufacturers. At present, from the perspective of streaming, Samsung, which accounts for 17% to 18% of the global share, has reported high costs, and the capacity of Huahong Hongli, the leader of OEM in the mainland, is also relatively tight. TSMC, the global OEM leader, raised the foundry price of wafers by 6% a few months ago, and there may be a second round of price increases in the near future.
Read more from first finance: IDC: it is estimated that PC shipments in 2022 will be 321.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% IDC: it is estimated that the traditional PC market shipments in 2021 will reach 350 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% IDC: the global personal computing device shipments in 2018 will be about 407 million units, a decline of about 3.9% IDC: it is estimated that the global PC shipments in Q4 2017 will reach 70.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% IDC: it is estimated that the global PC shipments will continue to be stable from 2016 to 2020 IDC: it is estimated that the whole of 2013 will be Global PC shipments will decline by 9.7% IDC: Q4 global smart terminal market quarterly tracking report in 2012 IDC: China’s PC monitor shipments in the second quarter of 2019 were 7.229 million units, a year-on-year decline of 10.6% IDC: Top 10 reasons for the decline of the PC industry IDC: research shows that PC is still the main computing device of American households IDC: Q4 traditional PC (desktop, notebook and workstation) in the fourth quarter of 2019 Sales volume is close to 71.8 million units, with an increase of 4.8% IDC: PC shipments in the Asia Pacific region in 2013 decreased by 10% IDC: the market size of global networking devices (including smartphones, tablets and PCS) increased by 27.4% year-on-year in Q2 2012 IDC: it is expected that the PC market shipments in China will reach 78.949 million units in 2012, with an annual increase of 9.0% IDC: the global PC shipments in Q1 2015 were 68.5 million units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%
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