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In 2020, the sales volume of smart phones in China will be about 307 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, From CINNO Research

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The following is the In 2020, the sales volume of smart phones in China will be about 307 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, From CINNO Research recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Android, iPhone, Intelligent mobile phone.

2020 is an extraordinary year. The epidemic situation and complex international trade situation at the beginning of the year have put the whole consumer electronics industry through a huge test. According to the monthly domestic mobile phone sales monitoring data of cinno research, in 2020, the sales volume of smart phones in China’s market was about 307 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. This is the fourth consecutive year of decline since the first decline of domestic smart phone sales in 2017, falling to the lowest level of domestic smart phone sales in the past six years.

The main reason is that on the one hand, the negative impact of the epidemic, on the other hand, the market demand is delayed due to the insufficient stimulation of 5g smart terminal technology innovation on the market demand side. We predict that in 2021, the demand of China’s smart machine market will pick up, and the sales volume will reach 336 million, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. If the future international trade environment is favorable for the recovery of the industrial chain, and the promotion of 5g commercial development, China’s smart machine market will usher in a rising cycle.

1. Huawei divests glory, brand pattern will be adjusted in 2021, Xiaomi and apple are expected to rise

In 2020, Huawei (including glory), vivo (including iqoo) and oppo will be the top three in China’s smartphone market, accounting for 70% of China’s smartphone market share.

Data source: cinno research monthly China smartphone sales report

From the sales volume and share of each brand:

1.1 Huawei (including glory) sold 114 million smartphones. Affected by the U.S. ban, Huawei’s total sales decreased by 24%, but still ranked No.1 in 2020 China’s smartphone sales, with a market share of 37%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points, of which glory accounted for 41%, reaching 4, 6.64 million units, with a market share of 15%. After Huawei splits glory, China’s smart machine market will present a new pattern in 2021;

1.2 the sales volume of vivo (including iqoo) and oppo smart phones were 52.27 million and 47.84 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 24% and 25% respectively. The market share was 17% and 15.6% respectively, which was equivalent to that of last year;

1.3 the sales volume of Xiaomi’s smart phones is about 37.82 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, which is less than that of other major domestic brands. The market share is 12.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In the second half of 2020, Xiaomi’s performance is particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. The sales volume of Hongmi has a year-on-year increase of 37%, mainly due to the good market performance of 10x, K30 and other series models;

1.4 the sales volume of Apple’s smart phones is about 3, 7.51 million units, slightly lower than Xiaomi ranked fifth, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, and the sales volume was at the top Among the 5 brands, the only one with positive growth year-on-year, with a market share of 12.2% and a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. This is mainly due to Apple’s participation in large-scale price reduction promotion this year to stimulate the market. At the same time, the market performance of the new generation of Apple Mobile Phones listed this year is good. The total sales of iPhone 12 Series in the first month and the next month are much higher than that of Huawei mate 40 series listed in the same period, and apple is gradually seizing the high-end market of Huawei Market share.

2. The strong growth momentum of 5g smart machine will drive the sales volume of smart machine to continue to rise

Since the launch of ZTE axon 10 Pro 5g, the first 5g mobile phone in China, in the third quarter of 2019, the replacement of 5g smart phones has officially begun. In 2020, the sales volume of 5g smart phones in China’s market will account for 41%, with a year-on-year growth of 38%, which is basically consistent with the forecast data of “the penetration rate of 5g smart phones in the whole year is expected to reach 40% in the mobile phone report of cinno research in July”. Among the new smart phones launched in 2020, 5g smart phones accounted for 80%, of which 5g new phones accounted for 83% in the third quarter, up 59 percentage points from 24% in the same period last year. In the future, 5g mobile phone price reduction and 5g tariff package reduction will accelerate the popularization of 5g smart phones. It is estimated that the penetration rate of 5g smart phones in China’s market will reach 96% in 2024.

3. The price of rigid OLED screen is sinking, and the penetration of flexible screen to high end is accelerating, driving the steady increase of OLED intelligent machine share

In 2020, the sales volume of OLED smart phones in China accounted for 40%, up 6% compared with 34% in 2019. This was mainly due to Samsung’s aggressive price strategy of rigid OLED mobile phone panel, which promoted the price of rigid OLED mobile phone panel to continue to penetrate into low-end smart phones. At the same time, the penetration of flexible OLED screens into high-end flagship models of various brands is accelerated. Apple’s new generation models are all equipped with flexible OLED panels. In the second half of 2020, the penetration rate of flexible smart machines will rise sharply from 9% in the first half to 19%, with a year-on-year growth of 10%, and the share of OLED smart machines will steadily increase. With the continuous release of OLED capacity and the development of folding screen technology, the penetration rate of OLED smart machine will continue to rise in the future.

4. The sales volume of 6.5 ″ and above models has increased to more than half, and the folding screen or mobile phone has become a new driving force for the growth of mobile phone size

In addition to the upgrading of screen technology, the change of screen shape is also a major highlight of the development of smart machine technology in 2020. In 2020, the share of 6.5 “and above size range smart machines in China’s market will increase significantly from 22% in 2019 to 54%, accounting for more than half, 6.0” -The proportion of 6.5 “size range decreased to 42%, and the proportion gradually increased from 6.5” and above to 4%. In October 2016, the launch of Xiaomi mix ushered in the era of full screen smart phones. Since then, screen utilization has continued to improve. In 2019, the proportion of 19.5:9 full screen smart phones in China’s market has increased significantly from 13% in 2018 to 57%. In 2020, the proportion of 20:9 full screen smart phones has increased significantly from 3% in 2019 to 39%, and the penetration rate of full screen smart phones is as high as 99%. Limited by the size of smart phones, the growth of average screen size will slow down in the short term. The continuous development of folding screen, curling screen and other technologies may become a new driving force for the growth of screen size.

5. FHD / FHD + resolution has become the mainstream, and 90hz + high refresh rate has become a new breakthrough for screen improvement

From 2015 to 2018, the screen display effect of smart phones in China’s market mainly depends on improving the screen resolution. The FHD / FHD + resolution penetration rate will increase from 34% in 2015 to 71% in 2020. From 2019, the head manufacturers will start to seek a breakthrough in how to improve the screen refresh rate. In 2020, the sales proportion of 90hz + screen refresh rate smart phones in China’s market will increase from 1% in 2019 to 20%, a year-on-year increase 19 percentage points, high screen refresh rate is more and more favored by the market. Among the smart machines equipped with high refresh rate screens, 90hz and 120Hz are the main ones, accounting for 11% and 7% respectively; 144hz screen refresh rate smart machines will enter the market in the second quarter of 2020, accounting for 2%.

6. Pre fingerprint and post fingerprint have gradually withdrawn from the market. In the future, under screen fingerprint identification and side fingerprint identification technology will become the mainstream of intelligent machine

From 2015 to 2018, the penetration rate of smart machines equipped with fingerprint identification technology has gradually increased, while the penetration rate of smart machines without fingerprint identification technology has continued to decline, mainly due to the increasing penetration rate of pre fingerprint and post fingerprint identification technology; from 2019, the penetration rate of pre fingerprint identification and post fingerprint identification technology has started to decline significantly, and with the maturity of OLED under screen fingerprint identification technology, the proportion of under screen fingerprint identification is fast The penetration rate of under screen fingerprint identification technology will increase from 28% in 2019 to about 35% in 2020, an increase of 7 percentage points, with obvious increase. In 2020, the penetration rate of carrying side fingerprint will increase to 18%, with a year-on-year increase of 16 percentage points. It is expected that under screen fingerprint identification and side fingerprint identification technology will become the mainstream of smart machines in the future.

7. Flexible OLED screen will speed up its penetration into the high-end market, and the business opportunity of plug-in touch market is still in OLED

From 2015 to 2019, the penetration rate of in cell touch technology carried by LCD screen is growing continuously, while the plug-in touch technology of LCD screen is gradually withdrawing from the low-end market. With the further improvement of OLED screen penetration rate in the future, the penetration rate of flexible OLED screen smart machine with plug-in touch technology and on cell touch technology will be increased to 12% and 6% respectively in 2020.

By analyzing the sales volume of other brands of smart phones equipped with touch technology, the penetration rate of in cell touch technology of LCD screen will reach 44% in 2020, among which Huawei (including glory) smart phones account for the largest proportion, followed by vivo and oppo. In 2020, the sales volume of LCD screen equipped with plug-in touch technology will basically be Apple smart phones. In 2020, the proportion of OLED screen smart phones equipped with on cell touch technology in China’s smart phones will increase to about 29%, ranking Huawei (including glory), vivo and oppo by brand machine sales; the largest proportion of plug-in touch technology on OLED screen is apple smart phones, followed by Huawei (including glory) smart phones.

8. In 2020, the use area of glass cover plate of smart machine in China will decline for the first time, with a year-on-year decrease of 12%

With the development of 5g smart phones, the penetration rate of smart phones equipped with glass cover (both front cover and back cover are made of glass) will increase to 69% in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points.

Due to the significant increase in the number of smart phones with 6.0-inch and above screens in the past two years, the penetration rate of smart phones with 6.5-inch and above glass cover has exceeded half by 2020, and the size and area of mobile phones continue to increase, only with the help of new large screen products such as folding screens. As a result, affected by the epidemic situation, the area of glass cover of smart phones in China will decline for the first time in 2020, with a year-on-year decrease of 12%.

Cinno research predicts that, limited by the screen size of smart phones, the growth rate of screen size will slow down in the near two years, while the development of full screen of smart phones has come to an end, and the total area of glass cover plate of smart phones in China will maintain a small growth in the next few years.

Looking back to 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic and the challenges brought by the Sino US trade conflict, China’s smartphone market still shows its vigorous vitality. Under the continuous pressure of the United States, Huawei stripped off its glory and “broke its arm to survive”. Although it had a little influence in the whole year, it still maintained its first position in the domestic market. Other leading brands actively planned to compete for Huawei’s market share and developed rapidly. The fierce market competition is both a challenge and an opportunity. On the one hand, it will lead to the reshuffle of the market competition pattern. On the other hand, it will also promote the continuous development of new technologies of smart phones.

More reading: cinno: domestic sales list of OLED smart phone brands in 2019 Year on year decrease of 44.5% cinno research: in the third quarter of 2020, China’s OLED smart machine sales dropped to about 3.5%, Counter point research: China’s smartphone shipment in 2017 dropped 1% year on year Gartner: Global smartphone shipment in Q3 in 2020 dropped 5.7% year on year IC insights: Top 12 global smartphone manufacturers in 2017 China’s smartphone sales in the first half of 2018 decreased by 10% compared with the same period last year A year-on-year decrease of 16.6% counterpoint: China’s mobile phone market is expected to rebound in 2020

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