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The epidemic situation in India is worsening, and the annual growth rate of smart phones will converge to 8.5% in 2021 From TrendForce

The following is the The epidemic situation in India is worsening, and the annual growth rate of smart phones will converge to 8.5% in 2021 From TrendForce recommended by And this article belongs to the classification: TrendForce, Intelligent mobile phone.

Mobile phone mobile phone has novel coronavirus pneumonia, and has become the second largest smartphone market in the world in 2019. According to TrendForce, India’s economy has been hit hard by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Trendforce estimates that the annual growth rate of the global smartphone market in 2021 will therefore converge from the original 9.4% to 8.5%; The total production is about 1.36 billion pieces, and the possibility of continuous downward repair is not ruled out in the future.

Trendforce further pointed out that at present, Samsung, apple, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo, the top five mobile phone brands in the world, have set up production lines in India or cooperated with OEM plants to produce products, and the proportion is increasing year by year, but the current output is still mainly for local demand. According to the local production situation at the present stage, it is preliminarily estimated that the total production of 12 million units from the second quarter to the third quarter will be affected, and the total annual production of India may decline by 7.5%.

India’s epidemic hit the middle and high-income groups hard, positively impacting the local sales performance in the second quarter

In addition to the huge market demand created by the demographic dividend, in order to boost the economy and create employment opportunities, the government of India has also offered preferential tariff policies to attract foreign investment, so as to accelerate the localization of the supply chain, continue to attract international mobile phone brands, expand the proportion of local production, and stabilize its position in the global mobile phone market. According to local data, the second wave of the epidemic mainly hit the middle and high-income groups, which will have a positive impact on the consumption performance in the second quarter and further lead to the decline of the average selling price (ASP). Therefore, mobile phone brand factories are bound to adjust the annual production plan according to the inventory of finished products.

In terms of the sales market share of the top four mobile phone brands in India, Xiaomi 25% and oppo 25% in order   23%, Samsung 22%, vivo   16%, and the four together cover 86%. Its sales items cover the products with the mainstream consumption of US $100-250 in the market. Therefore, the expansion of the epidemic has an impact on all major brands. From the perspective of productivity, it is reported that most of the factories are not affected by the epidemic and still maintain normal operation. However, with the rapid spread of the epidemic, it can not be ruled out that it will have a negative effect on the majority of middle and low-level labor force. Trendforce Jibang consulting believes that if the follow-up situation is not alleviated, it will also shut down the customs and even affect the transportation of parts.

On the whole, if the epidemic situation in India is not properly controlled in the second quarter, the prosperity of India in the second half of 2021 will be difficult to be optimistic. By then, the annual mobile phone production in 2021 may face another downward revision. Based on this assumption, trendforce puts forward a bear case scenario, which does not rule out reducing the growth rate of total Smartphone Production this year to below 8%.

Read more: trendforce: limited wafer foundry capacity in 2021, It is estimated that the new glory market will account for about 2%. Trendforce: it is estimated that the shipment of mobile phone lens will exceed 5 billion in 2021. Trendforce: it is estimated that the global production of smart phones will reach 1.36 billion in 2021. Huawei will fall out of the top six in the world. Trendforce: it is estimated that the quarterly reduction of global server shipment will increase to 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Trendforce: the average monthly price of the mainstream capacity of special DRAM will rise nearly 7% in February 2021 Trend force: in the first quarter of 2021, the overall average DRAM price will stop falling and stabilize. Trend force: SMIC is listed as a military enterprise by the United States, and its development will be impacted again. Trend force: in 2020, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 2.4 million, with a growth of 19.8% against the trend. Trend force: in the fourth quarter, memory is still in a situation of oversupply, The overall average price will drop nearly 10% trendforce: it is estimated that the global laptop shipment will exceed 180 million units in 2020. Trendforce: the server production will remain weak in the fourth quarter of 2020. The server DRAM price will expand to 13% ~ 18%. Trendforce: the demand for graphics cards will continue to strengthen, and the price of graphics DRAM is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the fourth quarter, However, DRAM prices are still under pressure in the second half of the year

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