Life data

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The following is the By July 2020, the global population will reach 7.8 billion From The lancet recommended by And this article belongs to the classification: Life data.

According to foreign media reports, you may think that the global population is large and growing exponentially. You worry that a huge population may use up all the resources in the world, but that’s not the case. According to a report published in the lancet in 2020, there are about 7.8 billion people in the world as of July 2020.

Data map

The global population is an estimate of the total number of people living on the earth, rather than a flowing sum of the number of newborn babies minus the number of deaths in a given period of time.

According to the United Nations, because we can’t track the number of births and deaths around the world in real time, demographers calculate the world’s population by adding the estimates of the regional population. They estimated the population of these areas based on a number of factors, including fertility (the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) and mortality (a person’s life expectancy). These factors can be evaluated according to the local social and economic conditions.

With the improvement of the quality of life and the level of medical health in the world, the number of people who live to childbearing age has increased significantly, and the global population has grown rapidly in the past two centuries. However, a report published in population today in 1993 shows that the global population growth rate has been slowing down since it reached its peak in the 1970s.

According to our world in data, an open source database and charity in England and Wales, the global population exceeded 1 billion in 1800, about 200 years ago. After that, the population growth rate increased rapidly. In less than a century, the global population exceeded 2 billion in 1927, then 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1975, 5 billion in 1987 and 6 billion in 1999. The above data are from the United Nations. According to the data of the United Nations, as of October 31, 2011, there are about 7 billion people in the world. It is expected that we will reach 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2037 and 10 billion in 2057.

The United Nations predicts that the world’s population will grow to 11 billion by 2100, although the long-term forecast is likely to change. In 2019, a report issued by the United Nations predicted that the annual growth rate of the global population will be less than 0.1% by 2100 due to the reduction of the number of newborn babies in the world.

Due to the inconsistent nature of population growth around the world, the composition of the world’s population, that is, the number of people under different demographic categories (such as nationality, race and age), has also changed over the past 50 years. Due to different fertility and mortality rates and different migration patterns, population growth in some areas is faster than that in other areas.

Overall, demographers have identified four demographic “Megatrends” to explain changes in global demographic composition: 1) overall population growth, 2) aging, 3) growth of international migration, and 4) urbanization. These important themes broadly outline the changes in the global population in the next few years and the reasons for the changes.

For a long time, the history of global population growth

For most of human history, global population growth was relatively slow. According to the statement “see the world with data”, historical demographers estimate that there were about 4 million people living on the earth in 10000 BC. In the first year of A.D., when mankind began the first millennium, the global population also reached 190 million. Since then, population has continued to grow, though it may have stagnated or even declined during the black death of the 14th century, when guinea pig disease swept through Europe, taking 33 to 55 percent of the population.

The data of “looking at the world with data” also shows that the annual population growth rate averaged 0.04% from 10000 BC to 1700 ad. By 1800, according to the same data sources, there were about one billion people in the world. The industrial revolution at the turn of the century stimulated the accelerated growth of global population, which lasted for a whole century. In 1927, with a cry, the global population entered the era of 2 billion.

According to the data of “looking at the world with data”, from 1920 to 1950, the average annual population growth was about 1%. By the middle of the 20th century, advances in public health, especially the discovery of antibiotics, had significantly increased life expectancy. As a result, the global population explosion.

In 1960, about 33 years after the world’s record population of 2 billion, the 3 billionth baby was born. According to a paper published in the journal Medicine and global survival in 1998, the population growth rate reached the highest level ever in the late 1960s, with an average annual growth rate of 2.04%.

U.N. demographer Sarah hetog says population growth began to surge in the second half of the 20th century for a variety of reasons, including a general decline in mortality, especially among children. “Of course, improved child survival means more adults in a few decades’ time, and they’re going to raise more children,” hetog said. In addition, the postwar baby boom (which began in the late 1940s) also led to significant population growth in North America and Europe. “

By the 1970s, the popularity of contraception had once again slowed down population growth. However, since there are already a large number of people living on our earth, the so-called “population explosion” has occurred. In 1974, the global population reached 4 billion. In the past 13 years alone, in 1987, the global population reached 5 billion. Another 12 years later, in 1999, the population increased by another billion. The next 12 years, 2011, is another billion. The United Nations estimates that in another 12 years, by 2023, the global population will reach 8 billion.

However, since the population explosion in the 1970s, the global population growth rate has slowed down greatly. According to worldmeter, an independent open source database, the current population growth rate is about 1.05% by 2020. The population growth rate is 1.08% in 2019, 1.10% in 2018 and 1.12% in 2017. Worldmeter uses the population data of the United Nations to make the above calculation.

The global population growth by region shows that not all regions show a downward trend. For example, sub Saharan Africa’s population growth rate is 2.7% by 2020, according to the economist. Demographers expect that, thanks to the region’s high fertility and declining mortality, more than half of the world’s new population will come from sub Saharan Africa in the next century.

Fertility and global population

Fertility is one of the most important figures used to estimate the global population. The total fertility rate of the population is the average number of children per female; since it is an average, this figure is accurate to one decimal place. If fertility increases and other demographic factors remain unchanged, then the total population will grow.

On average, every woman has 2.1 children, which is called birth replacement rate. This means that the population will neither decrease nor increase. According to Encyclopedia Britannica, this is because, on average, if a woman has 2.1 children and the children can grow up to 15 years old or above, they can replace their mother and father in the next generation.

According to the United Nations, as of 2015, the global average fertility rate was 2.5, significantly lower than the average fertility rate in 1990, when each woman had an average of 3.2 children. But on a global scale, there are significant differences in fertility rates in different regions. For example, the total fertility rate in sub Saharan Africa is 4.6, compared with 1.7 in North America and Europe.

“There are many factors that affect fertility in a country,” hetog said. The most important factors include the level of human development, women’s access to education and employment, and their access to family planning information and resources, which can help women decide when to have children and how many children to have. “

Many studies have shown that when women and girls have the same educational opportunities as men of the same age, women will have more opportunities in future life and tend to have fewer children. This may be because when women pursue education and employment opportunities, they will delay the plan of having children.

In addition, the higher the level of urbanization, the lower the fertility rate. Urban areas usually experience “demographic transition” – from high birth rate and high mortality to low birth rate and low mortality.

However, hetog said that “considering that the medical and health conditions in urban areas are not generally improved, especially in places like slums”, the low birth rate and low mortality rate in urban areas is not absolute. “But there is a factor that affects fertility in urban areas and, in turn, population growth in urban areas. That is, women tend to have more education opportunities, employment opportunities and reproductive health resources. “

Mortality and global population

Mortality is a measure of the number of deaths in a population. This data usually comes from national death registries.

It is difficult for demographers to obtain the specific number of deaths of a population in a given time, because not every country has a national birth and death database, or carries out a census to register all newborns and the dead. If no data are available, demographers can use surveys to assess the number of deaths in the population. They used this data, along with life expectancy and other demographic factors, including gender, to calculate mortality. (life expectancy is estimated based on the poverty rate, health quality, and especially the prevalence of infectious diseases in a given year.)

According to “see the world with data,” historical demographers estimate that life expectancy in all regions of the world was around 30 years before industrialization. Industrialization began in Europe around 1800. At that time, infant and adolescent mortality rates (under 15 years old) were extremely high. According to a study published in the journal Evolution and human behavior in 2013, about 27% of children die before the age of one, and 47% do not live to be 15. Matthias Lingren, an economist at gapminder, the global development fund, said the global fertility rate was 5.77 at that time, but it varied from country to country. 7 in the United States and 4.3 in Norway.

However, according to the report published in the lancet in 2013, thanks to the improvement of food production and the development of drugs and health facilities, the mortality rates of infants, adolescents and adults are decreasing all over the world, which has greatly extended life expectancy.

According to the World Health Organization, the global average life expectancy was 46.5 years from 1950 to 1955. By 1995-2000, the global average life expectancy had risen to 65 years. As of 2019, the United Nations estimates that the global average life expectancy is about 72.6 years.

Even so, life expectancy varies around the world. According to the data of the World Health Organization, in 2016, the average life expectancy of the world was 72 years, but there were significant differences in different regions. The lowest was 61.2 years in Africa, and the highest was 77.5 years in Europe.

Studies have shown that there is a correlation between low living standards (usually accompanied by higher levels of poverty) and low life expectancy. In addition, major events such as wars, natural disasters, famines and epidemics will also affect the overall mortality of the population.

How do demographers find data for these calculations

Demographers rely on important national statistics and censuses to collect data on births, deaths, emigrants and immigrants. However, not all countries keep these records; sometimes even if they do, they may not be accurate. Many developing countries, countries experiencing conflicts or areas with large-scale population displacement caused by natural disasters, do not have available data.

If there were no national data, demographers would use household surveys, hetog said. These surveys sampled a representative number of families in a country. Then, the interviewers went door-to-door and asked the family members some key questions, such as their age, education level, income, family status and birth and death.

Demographers then use the data they collect in the survey to infer the fertility and mortality rates of the country’s population. Based on these data, demographers can predict the global population in the next few years.

Forecast of global population in the future

Population forecasts try to tell you how many people will live on our planet in the near future and in the long run. Given the changing factors that determine the number of new babies and the number of dead, future global population projections are not absolute.

More than half of the projected global population growth by 2050 will come from the following nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States (in descending order of expected growth), according to a United Nations report for 2019.

Accurate prediction of global population is very important to understand how people use the limited resources on the earth. In addition, it is very important to understand the population distribution and how to make the best resource allocation plan.

For example, predicting how many new babies will be born in the future and where they will be born can help us determine where health care and education resources will be used. Predicting the number of new labor in a certain region can help countries establish the most effective labor market.

More reading: Lancet: it is estimated that China’s population will drop to 730 million by 2100. 33% of the global population is overweight and 10% obese. UN: it is estimated that the global population will exceed 11 billion by 2100. UN: it is estimated that the global population will reach 10.9 billion by 2100. American Museum of natural history: it is estimated that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100. PRB: it is estimated that the global population will reach 10 billion by 2053 Galka: half of the world’s population is crowded on 1% of the land United Nations: it is estimated that the global population will reach 9.7 billion in 2020 Lancet: drinking will increase the risk of high blood pressure stroke Lancet: 9 million deaths and pollution related in 2015 Lancet: direct economic losses caused by extreme weather in 2016 will reach US $129 billion Lancet: 2.3 billion overweight people found in the study lancet „ÄčThe Lancet: China is one of the five countries with the greatest medical progress in the world Lancet: one quarter of the world’s pregnancies are ended by abortion

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