The following is the The sea going manufacturers are all entering the synthetic track. Is there really a chance? From 2021 annual data review recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Mobile games.
The game industry information and analysis media deconstructor of fun (hereinafter referred to as DOF) summarizes the global mobile game industry by category and theme every year, and forecasts the development trend of the new year. This year, DOF also cooperated with sensor tower to analyze the changes and future development trend of the global leisure game industry in the past year.
Author: Laura Taranto, product manager of Big Fish Games; Niek tuerlings, chief game designer of voodoo games; Ahmetchan Demirel, game designer; Michail katkoff, CEO and founder of savage game.
Compile: zhaoxizi
Moby Dick goes to sea also specially compiled the platform column 2022 predictions for casual mobile games – deconstructor of function to share with readers the possible upcoming changes and potential opportunities of leisure mobile games, a popular track going to sea.
Basic price in 2021: the head effect is becoming more and more obvious, and the revenue of gambling and CNNC games may decrease sharply in 2022
As we all know, the global mobile game industry has achieved unprecedented growth in 2020, with downloads increasing by 36% and revenue increasing by 31%. With the implementation of new privacy regulations by apple in 2021, it is much more difficult for mobile game manufacturers to obtain customers. Nevertheless, in 2021, the total number of mobile game downloads in the western market (excluding data from China, Japan and South Korea) remained stable at the highest level of nearly 53 billion times in history; Revenue also achieved a year-on-year increase of 17%, breaking the record.
Changes in total downloads and total revenue of mobile games in Western markets from 2018 to 2021 (Android platform data does not include third-party stores) | data source: sensor tower
In the new era when the positioning ability of advertising identifier (IDFA) is greatly reduced, the game categories that rely on high krypton player profitability will be the most severely impacted. Although the total download volume of mobile games has maintained growth, although the revenue of many categories has continued to grow, the download volume has decreased, among which gambling games and mid core games (game types that require more player skills in mechanism design) are the most serious. Therefore, the revenue of these two kinds of games is likely to decline sharply in 2022.
In addition, the downloads of head racing IP games represented by “Mario Kart” have also declined significantly, so the sports mobile game market may also fall into a downturn in 2022.
The revenue of several head mobile game categories continued to grow in 2021, but the download volume generally decreased. Only 15% of the data downloaded by tower sensor
Another noteworthy phenomenon is that the number of new mobile games online in 2021 reached the lowest level in 10 years. This phenomenon is obviously related to home work during the epidemic. The difficulty of remote cooperative development of new games by mobile game manufacturers is significantly greater than that of offline office. In addition, the promotion ability is also an important means to tap the potential of the game market, but the city closure measures during the epidemic period also significantly reduced the iteration frequency of marketing activities, which further put forward a test for the launch of new products.
Data source: sensor tower
The number of new mobile games launched in 2021 is the lowest in 10 years
However, for those games that were successfully launched and expanded the user base during the epidemic, these new and popular models successfully ranked among the top 100 in only six months, two months faster than the previous year. Overall, there are more than 30 new products in the top 100 mobile game best sellers in 2021, which is significantly lower than the 42 games in 2020.
In terms of revenue share, the mobile game market in 2021 is increasingly concentrated on top products, and the top 100 products in the best seller list account for 65% of the internal purchase revenue; For head games with a net revenue of more than $10 million, the revenue of these popular models also maintained a relatively stable growth trend in 2021.
The top 100 mobile games in the global best seller list in 2021 accounted for 65% of the internal purchase revenue | data source: sensor tower
Revenue by category: board games have the fastest growth, followed by “new three elimination”, and the interactive plot is going up and down
DOF divides leisure mobile games into seven sub categories, namely puzzle games, super leisure games, arcade games, desktop games, simulation games, lifestyle games, and geographic positioning games based on the geographical location of players, and divides the themes on the basis of the seven categories, so as to facilitate the comparison of products with similar functions or user groups.
Overall, in the western market, the downloads of leisure games accounted for 80% of the total downloads of mobile games in 2021. In addition, leisure mobile games also accounted for 35% of the internal purchase revenue of all mobile games. The figure below does not show the advertising revenue of leisure mobile games in 2021, but in fact, this revenue is also very considerable. Super casual games alone are estimated to generate $3.4 billion in advertising revenue, while the advertising revenue of guessing games is even the same as that of internal purchase.
Western market in 2021 (excluding data from China, Japan and South Korea)
Proportion of revenue from different categories of leisure games | picture source: sensor tower
Overall, in 2021, the total revenue of Western mobile games market (excluding market data of China, Japan and South Korea) increased by 14% year-on-year, while that of leisure mobile games increased by 17%. Although this increase is quite prominent in all categories, it still shows a significant decline compared with the 36% growth rate in 2020.
In terms of downloads, the number of downloads of casual games was 33 billion, which was also lower than that in 2020. To be exact, super casual games are the only game category to achieve continuous growth in downloads in 2021.
In terms of internal purchase revenue, almost all leisure game subcategories increased in 2021. Among them, board games grew the fastest, with an increase of 42%. Typical representatives of such mobile games include playtika’s card game “Solitaire grand harvest”, with an annual revenue of US $53 million, a year-on-year increase of 56%; In addition, there is yalla Ludo, a social game under yalla technology, with an annual revenue of US $49 million, a year-on-year increase of 187%; The card game “Solitaire cruise Tripeaks” launched by applovin earned US $34 million, a year-on-year increase of 504%; The annual revenue of the puzzle game “dice dreams” launched by superplay reached US $18 million, a year-on-year increase of 1446%.
Comparison of annual revenue and year-on-year growth of head board games leisure games in 2021 | data source: sensor tower
In contrast, the internal purchase revenue of super casual games increased by 26% annually; The growth rate of puzzle games continued to remain at about 15%. It is worth noting that in the puzzle games, the revenue of the new Sanxiao game (other match 3, which adopts a more novel theme and combines other playing mechanisms) excluding the traditional IP such as “candy crush” was particularly outstanding, with an increase of 90%. Typical representatives of such theme games include “match 3D” under applovin and “Zen match”, a plant theme three elimination game launched by good job games. In fact, the new three elimination game has always been the most popular puzzle game theme for players, and the head explosion of this theme is also different every year.
The internal purchase of simulation games increased by 14%. This is mainly due to the great success of the large-scale game platform “roblox” and the rapid development of the simulated survival game “family island” after its publisher melsoft was acquired by moon active.
Affected by the revenue decline of three head games “choices”, “episode” and “chapters”, the internal purchase revenue of interactive story games fell by 22%; In addition, drawing and coloring games also suffered a decline in revenue due to misleading subscription problems.
Next, let’s carefully analyze and study the market prospect of puzzle games in 2022.
Puzzle game
Photo source: deconstructor of fun puzzle game all subject types and representative works
The epidemic has changed the lifestyle of many people. Compared with 2019, the download volume of puzzle mobile games increased by 30% in 2020, and the revenue also increased by nearly 30%. However, in 2021, the number of downloads decreased by 15% year-on-year; Although the revenue still increased year-on-year, the increase of 17% is also significantly lower than 30% in 2020. In short, puzzle games have been unable to attract too many new users, but they can still make good profits. The liquidity of some games and manufacturers is still very prominent.
Comparison of smart tour with top tour in 2020
Distribution of the top 2000 puzzle game sub categories in the western market in 2021 | data source: sensor tower
In addition to merge games, there are few new puzzle games successfully listed in 2021. Among the top 2000 puzzle mobile games in 2021, only about 140 are new products or games that did not enter the list last year.
Throughout 2021, the most outstanding new educational products are “Zen match” launched by good job games, the new work of Rovio’s “angry birds journey” and “supernatural city” also from Rovio. In addition, there are “Switchcraft” of German leisure manufacturer wooga, “matchmaker: Puzzle and stories” of fusebox and “MasterChef: match and win – puzzle and cook” of qiiwi. However, the performance of these games is not enough to break into the top 40 of the list.
In the past four years, only three consumer Games “Royal match” and home improvement theme game “project maker” have entered the top 10 of the list. In addition, the top 10 ranking of puzzle games has been relatively stable. This is also in line with the common sense of the past, that is, once a game enters the top 40 of the ranking list, its ranking floating range will basically remain within 10 rankings. In the list, the lower the ranking, the greater the floating range.
Generally speaking, if puzzle games can invest more energy in normal operation, function update and customer acquisition, its ranking will be higher. Among the new games mentioned above, the revenue growth of the three consumer Games “Zen match” is the most prominent. However, in order to enter the top 10 of the best-selling list of educational games, “Zen match” needs to increase its revenue by 10 times.
Revenue of puzzle games in different sub categories
Among all kinds of puzzle games, puzzle & decorate has been outstanding. This theme accounted for 36% of the market share in 2021, and the revenue increased by 328 million US dollars year-on-year to 2.46 billion US dollars, with a growth rate of about 15%. Among them, playrix, a Russian manufacturer, accounts for 60% of the total revenue with its head mobile games “homescapes”, “Gardenscapes” and “Fishdom”.
However, the income growth of “homescapes” and “Fishdom” was not high in 2021, and “Gardenscapes” declined. The growth of puzzle + decoration Games was mainly contributed by “project maker” launched by applovin in 2021, and its revenue reached 241 million US dollars; In addition, the “Royal match” launched by dream game also earned $164 million in revenue in 2021.
Changes in the revenue of western tour theme of tower sensor in 2018-2021
The second theme is the classic three consumer games, with a market share of 29%, and its revenue increased to $1.9 billion from $1.6 billion in 2020. Among them, king, the head manufacturer, dominates this type with a market share of 70%, and its revenue growth is mainly due to the continuous strength of classic three explosive elimination models such as “candy crush saga” and “candy crush soda saga”.
Although “candy crush saga” was issued in 2012, its revenue has increased by nearly 50% in the past three years. In contrast, King’s new casual games have had a general response. The magic themed three consumer mobile game “Harry Potter: Puzzle and spells” launched by social game manufacturer Zynga in 2020 accounted for less than 5% of its revenue, but its annual revenue growth was as high as 280%.
Although the revenue of synthetic games and new three consumer games is relatively small, their strength can not be underestimated. In 2021, the year-on-year revenue growth of these two types of themes exceeded 10%, including synthetic games increased by 17% and new three consumer games increased by 11%.
In synthetic games, “merge dragons” and “merge magic” experienced a decline in revenue, while “evermerge” and “merge mansion” developed rapidly; In the new three consumer games, the Finnish manufacturer Rovio’s “angry birds dream blast” has been firmly at the top of the best-selling list since 2019. However, under the influence of competitive products such as “match 3D” of applovin and “Zen match” of good job games, the revenue share of “angry birds dream blast” has decreased from 50% in 2020 to less than 30% in 2021.
Manufacturer pattern: King and playrix keep pace, and applovin is catching up
In the field of educational games, playrix and king have always been the top publishers with the highest share, both of which are equal. In 2020, playrix replaced king as the highest paid casual game manufacturer in the western market, but king returned to the first place in 2021. It can be seen that the competition between the two manufacturers is very close, which is also reflected in the revenue of their products. In 2020, among King’s three head games, “candy crush saga” revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year, while “candy crush soda saga” and “farm heroes saga” increased by 15% and 18% respectively.
In 2021, the revenue of these three games has increased, and the year-on-year growth of “candy” is close to 40%. On the other hand, the growth of playrix’s head games tends to be flat, but the growth of its small and medium-sized games is obvious, with “manor matter” and “farmscales” being the most prominent. Overall, king is still the puzzle game manufacturer with the largest market share in 2021. In addition, a number of Zynga’s games have also experienced varying degrees of revenue decline.
Changes in the market share of top puzzle game manufacturers in the western market from 2019 to 2021 | data source: sensor tower
Compared with king, playrix and Zynga, applovin (because of its acquisition of meggitavin, it has become the head manufacturer of puzzle games) has more game themes, so its revenue has increased more. After becoming the puzzle game with the highest revenue in 2019, the revenue of “matchington mansion” has been in a downward trend; However, the “project maker” launched in 2020 has increased rapidly, allowing applovin’s total revenue of puzzle games to still grow.
In contrast, match 3D, also from applovin, has increased its revenue five times in the past year, but its market size is still not enough to compete with the first two games. Whether “applovin” will more strongly support the development of “match 3D” or use this product to derive a more immersive game is also worth further observation.
Year on year increase / decrease in downloads of head leisure mobile game manufacturers from 2019 to 2021 | data source: sensor tower
The obvious change of IDFA policy in 2021 also has a significant impact on the head puzzle game manufacturers. Some games still maintained the rising trend of revenue in the post IDFA era, but the revenue growth of other games fell into stagnation and even decreased slightly.
Among them, the downward trend of playrix’s games is the most obvious, and its downloads have decreased by 50%. From May 2021, the number of advertising creativity of playrix’s “Gardenscapes” and other games has also decreased significantly. From the platform point of view, playrix games have more downloads on Android than IOS, but the downloads on both platforms have decreased significantly.
Specifically, the number of downloads of playrix on Android decreased by 56%, from 482 million to 215 million; IOS downloads fell 23%, from 108 million to 84 million. As more and more game manufacturers rely on Android system to obtain more users, the distribution cost of games on this platform has also soared. This situation is likely to lead some developers to abandon the platform, and the marketing activities of game manufacturers will also enter a low tide before finding the exact solutions in the post IDFA era.
Next, let’s take a look at the main changes of a major sub category of puzzle games – synthetic mobile games in 2021.
Synthetic game market: traditional synthesis is close to saturation, and there is still a large space for leisure synthesis
In addition to the three elimination games, synthetic games are also the most popular leisure game themes in the global market. The total revenue of such games has increased from $271 million in 2020 to $322 million in 2021, an increase of 19%. Here are the top 10 best sellers of synthetic games in 2021.
Data source: sensor tower
Best selling list of synthetic games in western market in 2021
With the popularity of synthetic games, almost all manufacturers are producing or distributing synthetic games in 2021. In the top 10 of the list, 9 games adopt the traditional three in one mechanism, and the head leisure mobile game “merge dragons” adopts this design. Although the download volume of synthetic games decreased significantly in 2021, its total revenue increased by about 10% year-on-year, mainly due to the 247% year-on-year increase in revenue of “evermerge”.
The revenue of “magic and Dragons” under gram has also decreased significantly, while the market performance of cartoon placed synthetic game “magic” and new product “merge fables” is more prominent. In terms of market share, “merge dragons” is still in the leading position with a 45% share.
In the middle of 2021, the product with the largest revenue contribution in the synthetic game market is “merge mansion”. This is also the only game on the list that uses a more casual two in one mechanism. Metacore, the publisher of “merge Manson”, carried out extensive publicity in 2020 and achieved quite good marketing results. Many manufacturers have followed suit, but the results are different.
Let’s look at the pattern changes of traditional and leisure style synthetic game market in 2021.
Data source: sensor tower
Market share distribution of traditional and leisure composite games in 2021
As can be seen from the above chart, the development of casual synthetic games obviously lags behind that of traditional synthetic games. The total revenue of the former is about 20% of that of the latter, and the download volume is about 60%. The huge difference in income between the two types of themes has something to do with the low revenue per download of leisure synthetic games.
As a traditional head synthesis game, “merge dragons” has complex mechanism and high operation difficulty, so it has attracted many hard core players. In addition, the market of traditional synthetic Games has been quite saturated, while leisure synthetic games are still in its infancy, which shows that leisure synthetic games still have great profit potential to be tapped.
However, although there is still great growth potential in the field of casual synthetic games, it remains to be seen whether there will be head products like “evermerge” in this field. For now, “merge mansion” is still the head player in casual synthetic games. With the support of the publisher supercell, the revenue of “merge mansion” increased from US $2.2 million in 2020 to US $43 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1900%. This is quite similar to the rapid growth of “merge dragons” in 2017.
Based on the above market observations and data, we make the following forecast for the leisure game market in 2022.
Market forecast for 2022
Educational games — from the innovation of playing methods and themes to the return of players’ preferences and habits
In 2022, the focus of game manufacturers will no longer be the category and theme of the game, but the preferences and habits of players. Ishai smajda has expressed similar views on the audience of game products. In fact, the attention to players has become a major theme of the game industry in 2021, and this momentum will continue until 2022.
From the manufacturer’s point of view, wooga has made vertical expansion, hoping to find target players with similar interests to the company’s good scavenger theme games; Playrix, on the other hand, hopes to attract scavenger gamers with perfect decoration and playing methods. Game manufacturers will continue to try more new customer acquisition strategies in 2022.
In addition, the diversification of internal purchase payment channels will also cause strong repercussions in 2022. With the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency and the fact that apple and Google are gradually forced by governments to accept third-party payment channels, the in-game purchase mode in 2022 will also change significantly.
Although “candy crush” is not likely to accept players to buy game currency with bitcoin, it is likely that players will bypass the platform to purchase equipment directly, because it can bypass 30% of the platform. The revolution of payment channels is still in progress, and the changes caused by it also depend on the coping strategies of Google and apple. At present, service providers such as xsolla have provided more ideal payment schemes than platform parties.
Some games may also allow the purchase of cryptocurrency, and small manufacturers are expected to take the lead in launching this function. In many countries, cryptocurrency is still not legal tender, so the circulation of cryptocurrency will not be fast. In addition, most old puzzle game players do not want to buy cryptocurrency, but the gradual popularity of cryptocurrency can not be ignored.
Synthetic game market forecast——
The space is large, but the hope of the new game is slim
For synthetic games, most of the games that failed to rapidly expand the user base before the new deal of IDFA can only maintain small-scale operations. They are either acquired or die out. For example, in the competition with head manufacturers such as playrix, supercell invested a lot of marketing funds in the synthetic game “merge mansion”, which also led to the increase of CPI in the whole synthetic theme mobile game market. This change has hurt love & pies, another synthetic game of supercell.
Overall, the prospect of synthetic mobile game market in 2022 is not optimistic. Although the synthetic game market is huge, and new products still have development space, it is impossible to gain a foothold in this range only by relying on simple mechanism imitation. With the change of privacy policy, even if the synthetic new product has a flexible customer acquisition strategy, it can not compete with the previous head products. Therefore, the significance of early player retention rate is no longer important. New synthetic games either invest a lot of money to expand the scale of user base, or they can only die out.
From: beluga whale at sea
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