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The following is the Phenomenon SUV! The price reduction of model y has just begun. From luxury to civilian, is it a crushing blow? recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: New energy vehicle industry.
1. This report comprehensively discusses the price strategy, expected market space, 2021 production and marketing forecast and industrial chain price elasticity forecast of Tesla Model y. it is an in-depth analysis of Tesla’s substantial price reduction on New Year’s Day 2021 (long endurance 339900, high performance 369900, with a reduction of about 150000 yuan).
2. It is estimated that the weekly production of domestic Tesla will reach nearly 8000 (model 35000, model y nearly 3000) at the beginning of 2021, and the annual sales of model y will reach 250000
It is estimated that the production of domestic Tesla in 2021 will reach 523000 units: in terms of production structure, m3 is expected to reach 278000 units and my is expected to reach 245000 units.
It is estimated that the sales volume of domestic Tesla will reach 420000 in 2021: in terms of sales structure, m3 is expected to be 180000, my 245000 and export 120000.
3. It is expected that the price reduction of domestic model y will promote it to become a phenomenon class SUV product and directly hit the market space of 1.12 million vehicles / year.
With the acceleration of the localization process of parts, especially the introduction of domestic brands of power batteries and the launch of standard endurance version, if the follow-up model y is reduced to less than 277000 (after subsidies), it will hit the market space of 1.6 million vehicles / year.
If the price is reduced to around 250000 (after subsidy) in the future, it will hit the market space of more than 2 million vehicles / year, and model y will form a crushing advantage over the same level of fuel vehicles in various parameters, which will crack down on the luxury fuel SUV brand in terms of price and civilian fuel SUV in terms of brand strength and performance parameters.
4. Investment suggestions: we expect the market capacity of domestic model y to reach 1.12-2.28 million vehicles / year. We firmly believe that the new model cycle represented by my will bring more than expected growth of industry demand. It is estimated that the sales volume of domestic my will reach 245000 in 2021, becoming a popular model.
5. Recommendation: Model Y-lg / catl industry chain high elastic beneficiaries continue to be the first in Ningde era, and recommend Enjie, Kodali, Hongfa, top group (Auto Group), Xusheng group (Auto Group), xinzhoubang, Tianci materials (Chemical Group), putailai and dangsheng technology in midstream links; it is suggested to pay attention to Huayou cobalt (nonferrous group), Ganfeng lithium (nonferrous group) and Yahua group (nonferrous group).
6. Risk tips: the risk that the production scheduling of midstream material manufacturers is less than expected; the risk that the demand of downstream battery manufacturers and vehicle enterprises is less than expected; the risk that the launch of high-quality new models is less than expected, resulting in the sales of new energy vehicles less than expected.
Text of the report
1、 Tesla product line: luxury positioning, rich models
·Product positioning: luxury brand, comparable with BMW, Mercedes Benz and Audi
·High model richness: 2 sedans (B / C class) + 2 SUVs (medium / large)
·There are many models available in different versions: each model has more than two versions, which can be distinguished according to the two dimensions of endurance and performance (standard endurance, long endurance and high performance).
2、 This round of domestic Tesla product line adjustment: model y price reduction, new model 3 officially on sale
·”Sexy” portfolio products are sold in China: as the last member of the sexy family to appear, domestic my is officially on sale, and Tesla interprets the leading position of trams with “China speed” for three consecutive years. (construction of Shanghai Super factory will start in January 2019, domestic m3 will be officially delivered in January 2020, and domestic my will be officially put on sale in 2021)
·The figure of SUV, the performance of sports car: model y is a high-performance, full intelligent medium-sized SUV. The 100 km acceleration of the long endurance version is only 5.1 seconds, while that of the high performance version is only 3.7 seconds.
·Domestic m3 upgrading: appearance, interior, comfort and energy efficiency are optimized, especially the addition of heat pump system, which further optimizes the performance of vehicle energy consumption.
3、 Trend of domestic Tesla: model Y’s pricing exceeds expectations, and will become a deterministic blockbuster
1. My pricing exceeds expectations, long life m3 off the shelf
·Tesla my’s pricing strategy is perfect: the previous pricing was ultra-high, but this big price adjustment has strong sensory impact, which will greatly promote the sales volume. The media reported that the first day order exceeded 100000.
·Domestic m3, my price is lower than the same American version: musk made it clear that the North American region will not produce the standard endurance version of my (there was a production plan before, and it was removed from the official website later), but the domestic standard endurance version of my is expected to go on the market.
·Domestic long-range m3 off the shelf, open up product space for my: mainly to increase the pricing range of M3 and my, improve product differentiation, avoid internal competition.
2. Familiar with Chinese car buying preference, model y aims to be the most popular SUV Market
·China’s market preference for SUV models: from 2014 to 2020, the proportion of SUV sales in China continued to rise to 36.4% for six consecutive years. Although the total passenger car volume was affected by the overall economic environment, the proportion of SUV continued to rise
·In pursuit of a more comfortable driving experience than cars of the same class, compact and medium-sized SUVs are the main sales force: compact SUVs generally refer to those with a body length of between 4000 and 4600 mm, medium-sized SUVs generally refer to those with a body length of between 4600 and 5000 mm, and Tesla Model y is positioning the same
4、 Comparison between domestic model y and other models: impact on dimension reduction of competitive products
1. Domestic model y locates medium-sized luxury SUV, and it can reduce the dimension of SUV of the same level in price
Domestic model y aims at medium-sized luxury SUV, but its pricing is similar to that of medium-sized civilian SUV, and we predict that it may continue to reduce the price to attack competitors in the future
·Medium luxury SUV Market: the main competitors are BMW X3, Mercedes Benz GLC, Audi Q5, etc
·Medium sized civilian SUV Market: the main competitors are Volkswagen Tiguan, Toyota Highlander, Cadillac xt4, etc
·Compact luxury SUV Market: main competitors: BMW X1, Mercedes Benz GLA, Audi Q3, etc
2. The price of domestic model y is lower than the main model of medium luxury SUV
·Main models of domestic model y target market: BMW X3, Mercedes Benz GLC, Audi Q5
3. Domestic model y pricing and new energy are better than the main SUV models of medium-sized new energy vehicles
·Main models of domestic model y target market: Weilai ES6, ideal one, Volkswagen id.4 series
4. The domestic model y parameters are better than the main compact luxury SUV models, but the low configuration price is slightly higher
·Main models of domestic model y target market: BMW X1, Audi Q3, Benz gla
5. The price of domestic model y for medium-sized civilian SUV is slightly higher, and there is still room for price reduction in the future
·Domestic model y target market main models: Toyota Highlander, Volkswagen Tiguan L, Cadillac xt4, are the target of subsequent price reduction
5、 Market space forecast of domestic model y
1. Target market space of domestic model Y: 1.12-2.28 million vehicles / year (depending on pricing range)
·The volume of medium-sized luxury SUV market is about 500000 vehicles / year: the sales volume from January to October in 2019 and 2020 are respectively 404000 and 408000, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%.
·The volume of medium-sized new energy SUV market is about 200000 vehicles / year: the sales volume from January to October in 2019 and 2020 are 124000 and 139000 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50%.
·Compact luxury SUV market, with a volume of about 240000 vehicles / year: the sales volume from January to October in 2019 and 2020 will be 244000 and 211000 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 5%.
·The market of medium-sized civilian SUV (average landing price is more than 240000) has a volume of about 740000 vehicles / year: the sales volume from January to October in 2019 and 2020 are 704000 and 685000 respectively.
·The market volume of B-class cars (average landing price is between 250000 and 350000) is about 600000 vehicles / year: the sales volume of 2019 and 2020 from January to October are 598000 and 525000 respectively.
The target market capacity of domestic model 3 ranges from 770000 to 1680000 vehicles / year, and the price drops to 252000 yuan, with a significant increase in the target capacity.
·Assuming that the price of domestic model y is 339900: target market capacity + potential market capacity is 1.12 million, it is estimated that the steady-state annual sales volume of domestic my is about 200000.
·Assuming that the price of domestic model y is 275000 (after subsidy): the target market capacity + potential market capacity is 1.67 million, it is estimated that the steady-state annual sales volume of domestic my is about 360000.
·Assuming that the price of domestic model y is 255000 (after subsidy): the target market capacity + potential market capacity is 2.28 million, it is estimated that the steady-state annual sales volume of domestic my is about 570000.
2. It is estimated that the production of domestic model y will reach 245000 in 2021
·It is estimated that the production of domestic Tesla in 2021 will reach 523000 units: in terms of production structure, m3 is expected to reach 278000 units and my is expected to reach 245000 units.
·It is estimated that the sales volume of domestic Tesla will reach 400000 in 2021: from the perspective of sales structure, m3 is expected to be 180000, my 220000 and export 120000.
3. Tesla is expected to deliver 3.3 million vehicles worldwide in 2025
·It is estimated that Tesla will deliver 3.3 million vehicles worldwide in 2025, including 1.2 million vehicles from Chinese factories, 1.4 million vehicles from American factories and 700000 vehicles from European factories.
·It is estimated that the total delivery volume of Tesla m3 and my will reach 2.8 million in 2025, accounting for 85%.
·It is estimated that by 2025, the global electric vehicle sales will be about 16 million, with a penetration rate of 20%, and Tesla’s global market share will reach nearly 21%.
6、 Supply chain analysis: the main parts of domestic model y are highly localized
The main parts of model y include exterior decoration, thermal management system, battery system, electrical appliances, interior decoration, power and chassis, etc., and the supply chain has a high degree of localization
7、 Investment advice
1. Tesla LG Chemical main supplier and Tesla Ningde era are expected to enter
LG Chemical has fully cut into the model y supply chain and become the current main supplier
According to the current sample delivery situation of Ningde times, it is expected to enter the model y supply chain in the middle of 2021 and gradually become the main supplier. Similar to model 3, it is still uncertain whether to supply lithium iron phosphate
2. Calculation of the elasticity of battery industry chain: Ningde and Kodali are the first to have great elasticity
3. Automobile industry chain: the flexibility of Tuopu is great
More reading: IEA: the number of global SUVs is 200 million in 2018, environmental protection is facing challenges consumer report: research shows that truck and SUV owners want higher fuel economy : research shows that single women become the mainstream consumer group of small SUV NHTSA: the growth of SUV sales in the United States leads to a sharp increase in pedestrian deaths Sohu automobile: passenger car brands / manufacturers / cars / SUV / MPV sales in April 2014 Baidu data research: Q3 in 2010 China’s automobile industry internet user search overall overview 360: SUV Industry Research Report in 2015 (with download) HCR: domestic compact SUV in June 2015 Market data observation comparative analysis of online advertising of SUV and car brands in 2014! Smart car Summit Forum six highlights to see first! Kentekenradar: Tesla Model 3 becomes the best selling vehicle in Holland
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