Automobile industryresearch report

2021 compact SUV insight Report From E-Car Research Institute

The following is the 2021 compact SUV insight Report From E-Car Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry, research report.

Compact SUV is expected to become China’s “first car market” in 2021

Thanks to the sudden large-scale influx of young families of the post-80s who are the first purchasers, and the family disposable income is only about 100000 yuan, the sales volume of compact cars from 2007 to 2016 continued to soar from less than 2 million to more than 8 million; after that, due to the sharp reduction of the number of the born population of the post-90s, the phenomenon of singleness became more and more serious, and the average price of single car gradually rose to 150000 yuan or more, 2016-2020 will focus on the first generation cars The annual sales volume of compact cars, which mainly focus on space and large-scale price reduction and promotion, has rapidly dropped from more than 8 million to less than 6 million. The joint venture car enterprises, such as Changan Ford, Shenlong Automobile, SAIC GM, North South Volkswagen, Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, which mainly focus on the sales volume of young household compact cars, have encountered a great impact, either a precipitous decline in sales volume, or a cry of losing money . During this period, although the sales volume of compact SUVs also fell into the mire of weak sales, thanks to the outstanding selling points such as multi-function, configuration upgrade and design optimization, the annual sales volume of SUVs faltered to maintain 5 million;

In 2020, the share of compact cars will drop to 28.46%, and the share of compact SUVs will rise to 24.98%. Based on factors such as shrinking youth population, significant consumption upgrading and lack of new car benefits, it is predicted that the share of compact cars will decline sharply in 2021. In addition, the share of medium-sized cars and SUVs is only more than 11%, which is not enough to endanger the former two in a short period of time. As long as the share of compact SUVs is maintained in 2020, 2021 is expected to become the “first car market” of China’s passenger cars

From 2021 to 2026, the compact SUV is also facing the severe challenge of the sharp decline of the first purchase users. If you want to stay in the “first car market”, you have to keep up with the pace of user evolution

From 2014 to 2020, the proportion of the first purchase of China’s passenger car market will drop from 65% in 2014 to 40% in 2020. However, the decline of compact cars, as the “first car market”, is far behind the market, leading to a precipitous decline in sales. The decline of the first purchase of compact SUV also lags behind the market, but it is better than that of compact car. Unfortunately, the sales volume has basically stabilized;

In the past, the sales volume of compact SUVs did not drop sharply, which does not mean that they can rest easy in the future. From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of the first purchase of passenger cars in China will accelerate to decline. For example, the transformation rhythm of compact SUV still can’t keep up with the market. Inevitably, there will be a sales collapse, which will affect the majority of car enterprises with the sales volume of compact SUV

The middle-aged in small cities are becoming the new main body of the “first car market”, which is the new cornerstone for the stable sales of compact SUVs and the consolidation of the “first car market”

From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of predicted first purchase will drop to 20%, and the car market segments such as young people in small cities, young people in big cities and middle-aged people in small cities will shrink. When the first car market is shrinking as a whole, the internal structure is evolving rapidly. From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of middle-aged people in small cities will rise to 40%, replacing the young people in small cities to become the new main body;

From 2021 to 2026, the middle-aged in small cities will become a new cornerstone for the stable sales of compact SUVs and consolidate the “first car market”. However, at present, many of the core users of the first-time purchase of compact SUV are still locked in the young people in small cities. In addition, the demands of the middle-aged people in small cities for compact SUV products are very different from those of the young people in small cities. It is urgent for car enterprises to optimize the layout of compact SUV products

The middle-aged in big cities and the middle-aged in small cities are becoming the new growth points of the “car exchange market”, which is the new cornerstone of the “first car market” for the stable sales of compact SUVs

From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of replacement purchase of passenger cars in China will continue to rise to 45%, and the main body will be close to the middle-aged in small cities and the middle-aged in big cities. The proportion of replacement purchase of the two will rise to 36% and 33%, which will become a new cornerstone for the stable sales of compact SUVs and the consolidation of the “first car market”;

At present, Chinese brands are mainly first-time buyers, and it is imminent to enter the car replacement market in the future;

In the next few years, the young people in small cities and big cities in the past decade will continue to hold the thermos cup. The thermos cup brings out age and experience. It’s no longer easy to fool

The middle-aged in big city is becoming a new growth point of “increasing car purchase market”, which is the new cornerstone for the stable sales of compact SUV and the consolidation of “the first car market”

From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of additional purchase of passenger cars in China will continue to rise to 35%, becoming a new blue ocean. Focus on the middle-aged in big cities, accounting for 66%, becoming a new cornerstone for the stable sales of compact SUVs and consolidating the “first car market”, especially for women;

At present, in addition to luxury brand compact SUVs benefiting from the purchase of more women, there are almost no compact SUVs specifically targeted at the purchase of more cars in both Chinese brands and mainstream overseas brands. In January 2021, the “burst order” of tank 300 initially shows that the compact SUV also has the potential to seize the opportunity of additional purchase. In the future, it is hoped that more compact SUVs will actively layout the additional purchase market;

In terms of aesthetics, men are far inferior to women. Once women become the main body of the “car market”, the compact SUV, which is still dominated by men’s car making thinking, has to carry out earth shaking self innovation

Compact SUV embraces a new cornerstone with a strong social background — midlife

The post-60s and post-80s are the two groups with the largest birth population in China. At present, none of the post-60s is younger than 50 years old and will continue to be over 60 years old. At present, none of the post-80s is younger than 30 years old and will continue to be over 40 years old. China’s average age of car market will be close to 35 in 2020, and gradually rise to 40 in 2021-2026. China’s passenger car market will quickly enter the “middle-aged car market”, which leads to the new cornerstone of the first purchase of compact SUV is the middle-aged in small cities, the new cornerstone is the middle-aged in small cities and the middle-aged in big cities, and the new cornerstone is the middle-aged in big cities It has become the common feature of the three foundations;

Midlife is the general trend of China’s auto market. The three new cornerstones are like a sincere love in front of us. The majority of auto companies should not doubt or hesitate, just open their arms and embrace warmly

From 2021 to 2026, seizing the “replacement uncle” is the “No.1 Project” of compact SUV

From 2021 to 2026, middle-aged people in small cities and middle-aged people in big cities are expected to contribute 30% and 40% to the sales volume of China’s car market, of which men are the main force; the first buyers who have grown rapidly in China’s car market in recent 10 years will flood into the car exchange market in the next 10 years, and the male car exchange market will be the largest segment of China’s passenger car market from 2021 to 2026, with the sales volume contribution expected to reach 37%;

The intersection of middle-aged users and men’s swapping is “swapping uncle”. From 2021 to 2026, seizing “swapping uncle” is the “No.1 Project” to stabilize the sales volume of compact SUVs and consolidate the “first car market”;

If compact SUVs want to remain invincible, especially if new cars want to stand out, they should not take the small fresh meat route. They have to strive to make the majority of users become “big uncle control”

Chinese brand compact SUV should strive for “small city for big uncle” and actively prevent the impact of rapid shrinkage of youth car market in small cities

From 2016 to 2020, although the sales volume of compact SUVs has stabilized, the life of Chinese brands is not easy. The sales volume has dropped from more than 3.1 million to 2.7 million. Because compact SUVs of Chinese brands are concentrated in the youth car market in small cities, the segment share has dropped from 40% to 25% in recent years.

From 2021 to 2026, the youth car market in small cities will shrink rapidly. Chinese brand compact SUVs “eat” the youth in small cities, but also “watch” the uncle in small cities. The young people who used to be in small cities will turn into big uncles and rush into the car market;

Chang’an cs75 plus, which is listed in the second half of 2019, has attracted many “small cities to buy big uncles” and helped Chang’an passenger cars rebound from the bottom in 2019 to 2020. In the second half of 2020, huffy big dog, which is listed on the market, has also attracted a lot of “small cities to buy big uncles”, adding to the splendor of the Great Wall in 2020. From 2021 to 2026, Chinese brands will sell when they need to

From 2021 to 2026, who can lead the Chinese brands, such as great wall, Chang’an and Geely, mainly depends on the “small town swap war” in the compact SUV Market

At present, great wall, Chang’an and Geely are working hard to sort out the layout of compact SUV: Great Wall consolidates the mainstream car market through the third generation of Haval H6, constructs the moat through F7 and F5, seizes the entry-level car market through M6, actively expands the crossover car market through f7x and Dagou, strives to develop the high-end car market through vv5 and vv6, and tries to wrong the off-road car market through tank 300; Chang’an strengthens the CS family by upgrading the plus model Geely has boyue in the mainstream car market, X6 in the entry car market, icon and Dihao GS in the cross-border car market, and Lingke leads Geely’s high-end compact SUV;

The compact SUV layout of great wall, Chang’an and Geely has been more comprehensive, but the lack of strategic direction, more or to seize the so-called segmentation of the car market, a bit like a “big pie”;

From 2021 to 2026, the core battlefield of Chinese brands is still compact SUV, but the strategic focus will shift from the battle of first purchase to the battle of replacement. This is a new topic for any Chinese brand. If Chery, trumpchi, Roewe and other Chinese brands in the second camp can effectively seize the new opportunity of “exchanging small cities for big uncle”, they may also “overtake around the corner”;

New cars such as tank 300, if they can actively strive for “small city to buy more uncle”, “big city to buy more uncle”, “big city to buy more uncle”, and even “big city to buy more aunt”, are additional points

Overseas brands of compact SUV should strive for “big city for big uncle” and actively prevent the impact of shrinking sales of compact cars

At present, the main sales body of overseas brands in China is still compact cars. From 2016 to 2020, compact cars will continue to shrink, and most overseas brands will be struggling. From 2021 to 2026, the pressure will only be greater;

Young people from small cities are rushing into big cities, young people from big cities are turning into middle-aged people from big cities, and compact SUVs of overseas brands, which mainly trade big cities for cars, are the first to make profits. From 2019 to 2020, the performance of overseas compact SUV brands will be strong, with terminal sales rapidly exceeding 2 million vehicles. Honda haoying, which will be launched at the end of 2019, will make a great progress, and Toyota velanda, which will be launched at the end of 2020, will add icing on the cake. During this period, the share of compact cars of overseas brands accelerated to shrink, and the SUV strategy helped Volkswagen to reverse the trend that the market center continued to sink;

From 2021 to 2026, the car market in big cities will break out rapidly, especially the middle-aged car market in big cities. Actively striving for “big city for big uncle” will become the new core topic of compact SUV of overseas brands

From 2021 to 2026, who can lead the overseas brands, such as Volkswagen, Honda and Toyota, mainly depends on the “big city swap war” in the compact SUV Market

Although the terminal sales volume of Volkswagen brand in China will drop to 2.63 million in 2020, a year-on-year decline of 16.13%, it is still the absolute leading brand in China’s auto market. From 2021 to 2022, Toyota and Honda will continue to challenge Volkswagen’s leadership by strengthening compact cars. However, the accelerated shrinkage of compact car market will greatly reduce the launch strategy of Toyota and Honda compact cars;

From 2021 to 2026, the consumption focus of China’s auto market will accelerate the shift from first purchase to additional purchase, and from small city to big city, which is bound to promote the strategic focus of overseas brands in China, and accelerate the shift from compact cars to compact SUVs;

At present, Honda, Toyota and VW have completed the basic layout of compact SUVs, but they also lack strategic direction, and they have not made targeted layout according to the rhythm of the evolution of Chinese car market users. Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Buick and Ford, which are eager to overtake or fight back, should fully seize the new opportunities such as “big city to buy big uncle” and actively arrange the market of compact SUV to buy more cars;

It indirectly leads to the discussion of the “second venture” of overseas brands in China: the “first venture” dominated by the first purchase, and the vehicle launch strategy of overseas brands in China is mainly direct domestic or simple localization transformation. With China’s auto market entering the stock era dominated by the increase and purchase, and with the earth shaking changes in the user structure, how can the majority of overseas brands carry out the “second venture”? How to realize the transformation and upgrading from “made in China” to “created in China”?

From 2021 to 2026, attracting “buy more aunts” is the “No.2 project” to stabilize the sales volume of compact SUV and consolidate the “first car market”

The majority of men, especially women, will buy more when they are in their 30s and 20s, especially when they are in their 30s and 20s;

From 2021 to 2026, men will quickly become the new main body of China’s car market, while women will rise rapidly, and the sales contribution is expected to rise to 24%. Among them, “aunt” will become the main force. If compact SUVs want to stabilize the sales and consolidate the “first car market”, they will naturally attract “aunt”

Luxury brand compact SUV should strive for “big city to buy Auntie” and actively explore new market growth space

From 2014 to 2020, the contribution of women in big cities to the car market will soar from 3% to 9%, becoming a new force for female users. Among them, “big cities buy more aunts” has played an important role in promoting the strong growth of luxury compact SUVs. In 2020, the terminal sales will be close to 450000;

From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of women in big cities is expected to soar to 18%, becoming the new main body of female users. Among them, “big cities buy more aunts” will continue to help maintain the high growth of luxury compact SUVs;

From 2021 to 2026, the sales volume of compact SUV will drop slightly to 4.5 million vehicles, but it is still the “first car market”. The proportion of replacement purchase is expected to rise to 50%, and the proportion of additional purchase is expected to rise to 15%

From 2021 to 2026, the first purchase market of the market will become a disaster area for the decline of sales volume. In 2020, the first purchase sales volume of compact SUV will be more than half, and it will continue to be under pressure in the future. From 2021 to 2026, the proportion of replacement and additional purchase will continue to increase, and the current compact SUV has partially benefited. In the future, if we can actively layout the additional replacement and purchase market, the downward pressure of the first purchase market will be greatly alleviated;

Considering the challenges and opportunities, it is predicted that the sales volume of compact SUVs will drop slightly to 4.5 million units from 2021 to 2026, and the focus of users will turn to the market of additional replacement and purchase, of which the replacement proportion is expected to rise to 50%;

From 2021 to 2026, the strategic focus of the automobile enterprises which sell more than 500000 compact cars should speed up the focus on the compact SUV, especially the replacement market of compact SUV

From 2021 to 2026, uncle and aunt are the core competition objects of compact SUV

From 2021 to 2026, the dramatic change of the proportion of the first purchase, replacement and additional purchase of compact SUV is mainly affected by the dramatic change of the population structure of China’s automobile market. In 2020, the average age of China’s car market will be close to 35, and gradually rise to 40 from 2021 to 2026. China’s passenger cars will quickly enter the “middle-aged car market”, in which “buy uncle” and “buy aunt” will become the core competition objects of the majority of car enterprises for compact SUV;

At present, many compact SUVs are dominated by first-time buying thinking, youth thinking or male thinking. Facing the new task of building a compact SUV for my uncle or aunt, most car companies seem to be very shy and can’t let go. But in the face of any love, not active, not thick skinned, how can you hold the beauty back

The competition of compact SUV in 2021-2026 will influence the overall pattern of passenger cars

In recent ten years, the competition pattern of China’s automobile market is mainly determined by compact cars. Who has the most compact cars, who is in the top of the market. From 2021 to 2026, with China’s auto market entering a new era dominated by the increase and replacement, the sales volume of compact cars dominated by the first purchase will continue to decline, and the compact SUV will become the “first car market” and the core segment of the market;

In 2020, Hafer, Chang’an and Geely will dominate the compact SUV market. In 2021-2026, if the top three Chinese brands can seize the new opportunity of substantial increase in the purchase of compact SUVs, it is believed that they will greatly increase their sales ranking in the passenger car market, and vice versa;

In 2020, the top three overseas brands Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda will dominate the big barring car market. The sales ranking of the top three from 2021 to 2026 will be largely determined by the compact SUV market

postscript

Based on factors such as shrinking youth population, significant consumption upgrading and lack of new car benefits, it is predicted that the share of compact cars will decline sharply in 2021. As long as the share of compact SUV in 2020 is maintained, it is expected to become the “first car market” of China’s passenger cars in 2021.

Considering the challenges and opportunities, it is predicted that the sales volume of compact SUVs will decline slightly to 4.5 million units from 2021 to 2026, and the focus of users will turn to the market of additional and replacement vehicles. During this period, compact SUV will become a new core factor influencing the competition pattern of China’s passenger cars. It is time for car companies to shift their product layout to the compact SUV market, and the focus of the layout will no longer be on the traditional first purchase users. New groups, such as uncle and aunt, will become new competitors.

E-Car Research Institute is positioned as a “non-commercial think tank” in the auto market and adheres to the principles of independence, objectivity and constructiveness. The opinions in the report are only the opinions of one family. We should give more comments and criticisms on the shortcomings. It’s not a pleasure to have friends from afar.

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