The following is the 2021 consumer confidence index report From China Consumer & Shell Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Consumer research, User Research, research report.
China consumer daily and Shell Research Institute jointly released the “2021 consumer home purchase confidence index report” (hereinafter referred to as the “report”), which integrates the subjective feelings of consumers on the current housing price affordability, purchase opportunity, housing price expectation, policy expectation and future economic trend, and weighted quantitative consumer home purchase confidence index to reflect consumers’ confidence in the real estate market, It has become the leading indicator to predict the future short-term market volume and price.
The report found that: the overall consumer confidence is optimistic, and the index distribution shows the characteristics of regional differentiation and population differentiation; The expectation of regulation policy is stable and tight, and the upward trend of mortgage interest rate is strong; Housing prices are expected to be stable as a whole, and lower energy cities are expected to be more stable; The purchase time is optimistic, and the confidence of high-energy cities is strong; The house price and income of the elderly and improved tenants are relatively high.
Buyers are optimistic about the property market in 2021
Education, income and purchase confidence index is proportional
According to the report, home buyers are optimistic about the trend of the real estate market in 2021, with the consumer confidence index reaching 108.4. The consumer confidence index of different regions has the differentiation characteristics of “high in the East and low in the west”. The consumer confidence index of eastern region is 109, followed by central region is 107.5, and western region is the lowest is 107. Moreover, the higher the city level is, the higher the consumer confidence index is. The consumer confidence index of first tier cities is 109.6, which is significantly higher than that of other cities.
Among them, buyers in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai are more optimistic about the trend of the real estate market in 2021, with consumer confidence index reaching 110.6, 110 and 109.6 respectively, all exceeding the overall average level. Chengdu, Tianjin and other new first tier cities are also favored by consumers. The consumer confidence index of Chengdu in 2021 is 108.5, and that of Tianjin in 2021 is 107.8.
Interestingly, consumer confidence index also varies with age, education background, income and so on. From the perspective of age, the consumer confidence index shows an inverted U-shaped feature. The confidence index of consumers aged 24 and below, 40-49 and over 50 is low, 104.1, 105.1 and 106 respectively, while the confidence of consumers aged 25-29 and 30-39 is high, 112.1 and 109.1 respectively.
The higher the level of education, the higher the confidence index. The lower the level of education, the lower the confidence. In addition, low-income consumers are pessimistic about the real estate market in 2021. According to the survey data of Shell Research Institute, the home purchase confidence index of the middle and high-income group is 108.3 and 112.6 respectively, while that of the low-income group is 99.2.
Shell Research Institute believes that it is necessary to appropriately boost the expectations of low-income, low education, young people who just need to buy houses, and support the release of rigid demand, such as strengthening the management of personal housing loans, guiding financial institutions to give priority to meet the demand of the first rigid housing in terms of housing loan amount and interest rate; We should improve the construction of urban housing security system, and increase the supply level of public rental housing, common property housing and other policy housing in a timely and appropriate manner.
Consumers expect the house price index to be stable
The house price and income of the former 80’s and the improved group are relatively high
Specifically, the expected house price index of consumers in 2021 is 107.4, showing a stable trend. 37.5% of the respondents expect that house prices will remain stable in 2021, with a rise or fall of less than 5%; 31.8% of respondents expected house prices to rise slightly by 5% to 10%. The lower the income level is, the higher the expectation of stable housing price is. The proportion of low-income home buyers expecting flat housing price is 39.1%. The proportion of consumers in the third and fourth tier cities and below expecting stable housing price is 40%.
The ratio of house price to income has a great influence on the purchase decision-making intention《 According to the report, the average price to income ratio of home buyers is 10.7. The average house price to income ratio of first tier cities is 13.3, while that of other cities is only about 9.3. The ratio of house price to income of the elderly group with more wealth accumulation is relatively high, and the ratio of house price to income of the group over 50 years old is 13.0, which is much higher than that of the group 25-29 years old by 10.2. In addition, the house price to income ratio of improved house changers is 11.2, which is higher than that of first-time home buyers and investment buyers.
The timing of house purchase reflects the scale of demand. The better the timing of house purchase, the larger the scale of potential house purchase demand. In 2021, the expectation index of house purchasing time is 111, and the proportion of consumers who think it is suitable for house purchasing is nearly 20 percentage points higher than those who think it is not suitable. The proportion of buyers in high-energy cities who think the right time to buy houses in 2021 is higher, and the expected index of purchasing houses in fourth tier cities and below is less than 100, so their confidence in the right time to buy houses is weak. The middle and high-income groups and the groups with higher education level are more optimistic about the purchase opportunity in 2021, while the low-income group’s purchase opportunity index is only 82.4, and the high school and below group’s purchase opportunity expectation index is only 93.5.
The overall policy expectation is stable, moderate and tight
More than 60% of home buyers delay the purchase plan
Since the second half of 2020, hot cities have continued to strictly control the housing demand side around the policies of purchase restriction, sales restriction and loan restriction, which also has an impact on the real estate qualification and plan of home buyers. According to the survey data, 75.3% of the respondents said that the purchase plan was affected, and more than 60% of them delayed the purchase plan. Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomerations are greatly affected by the regulatory policies, and their home purchase plans have relatively obvious changes.
The proportion of buyers who expect the regulation policy to remain stable in 2021 is 52.1%, and the proportion of buyers who expect the policy to continue to increase is 2.3 percentage points higher than that of buyers who expect to relax appropriately. The higher the city energy level, the higher the proportion of house buyers who are expected to continue to increase the regulation and control, and the higher the expectation of policy increase in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration.
41.2% of the buyers expect the difficulty of housing loan to increase in 2021, and 73.2% of the buyers expect the housing loan interest rate to show a steady upward trend in 2021. According to the data monitoring of Shell Research Institute, the average loan interest rates of the first and second housing in 60 key cities in April increased by 10 basis points compared with the end of last year, and the average lending cycle was 46 days, showing a high adjustment trend《 The report pointed out that the capital supervision is expected to continue to strengthen in 2021, the real estate credit environment will continue to tighten, and the steady upward trend of housing loan interest rate will become a trend.
From the macro background, consumers are optimistic about the economic development in 2021. According to the survey data, the expected index of economic trend in 2021 is 138.3, and more than 90% of the respondents believe that the economy will show a stable and good trend in the next year. In particular, the economic trend of second tier and above cities is significantly better than that of other energy level cities, and the economic recovery of eastern developed cities is also greater than that of other regional cities.
The living conditions of post-80s are generally poor
Nearly 70% of the total purchase price is less than 2 million
In addition to the analysis of the consumer confidence index, the report also depicts the purchase group. At the same time, more than 90% of the buyers in the third tier cities and above have a total price of less than 2 million yuan, while only 33.8% of the buyers in the first tier cities have a total price of less than 2 million yuan. On the whole, nearly 70% of the total purchase price is less than 2 million yuan.
Most of the buyers buy their houses through leverage, and only 18.1% of the respondents buy their houses in full. After 95, with the help of their parents, they become the age group with relatively high proportion of full purchase. On the contrary, the loan proportion of 30-34 age group is the highest, reaching 87.4%. From the perspective of the demand types of home buyers, the leverage of first-time home buyers is relatively high, and the loan proportion is 86.6%.
According to the report, first-time home buyers have become the main force in the market, with 51.2% of the respondents buying for the first time and 36.2% of the respondents changing houses for improvement. The higher the energy level of cities, the higher the proportion of improved housing demand. The proportion of improved housing demand in first tier cities is 40.9%, which is 5 percentage points higher than that in fourth tier cities and below. According to the data of shell platform, in 2021, 39.7% of the 30 key cities purchased products of Sanju and above, an increase of 6.7 percentage points compared with 2017.
The survey shows that the per capita living area of home buyers is 33 square meters, with 0.88 rooms per capita. Affected by the high cost of living and the structure of housing supply, the housing conditions of residents in the first tier cities are relatively poor. According to the transaction data of the shell platform, 71.7% of the buyers in the first tier cities have a purchase area of less than 90 square meters. The average living area and room per capita of 30-34 and 35-39 age groups were significantly lower than those of other age groups.
According to reports, the consumer confidence index for the first time to build release“ To realize the smooth operation of the market, monitoring and early warning is a very important part. Previously, Shell Research Institute has launched the housing price index based on the transaction side and the prosperity index based on the industry side, while the behavior prediction index based on the purchase of consumers is still a blank. ” Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Shell Research Institute, said, “the consumer confidence index launched by China consumer daily and Shell Research Institute just hopes to provide consumers, industries and decision-making departments with sustainable and reliable practical value through quantitative means.”
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