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The following is the 2021 white paper on global asset allocation of personal finance of Bank of China From Bank of China recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy, Investment & Economy, research report.
Bank of China’s “white paper on global asset allocation of personal finance in 2021” predicts China’s economic trend next year, and studies and judges the trend of equity, bonds, foreign exchange, commodities and other assets in major global markets in 2021. According to the white paper, the order of global asset allocation in 2021 is commodities, equity, gold and bonds, and China’s economy will take advantage of the situation next year to lead China’s asset revaluation.
Next year’s economic growth will be high before low
According to the forecasts of IMF, the world bank and other institutions, China is expected to become the only major economy with positive growth in the world in 2020. The white paper also believes that with the resonant recovery of the global economy after the new epidemic, China will continue to take advantage of the situation, continue its growth advantage in 2020 in 2021, and steadily increase its share in global GDP. China will also continue to promote the modernization, digitization and regionalization of its industrial chain, actively promote the stable cooperation of global industrial chain supply chain, and further enhance China’s position in the Asia Pacific industrial chain The status of the society.
The white paper also mentioned that, benefiting from the successful experience of anti epidemic, domestic intermittent or local sporadic epidemic still has limited impact on the economy, the probability rate of monetary and fiscal policies in special periods returns to normal, the annual inflation is mild and worry free, industrial production is expected to continue to recover, and social demand will be under the new development pattern of building a large domestic circulation as the main body and promoting domestic and international double circulation It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of China’s GDP in 2021 will fluctuate from high to low, and the comprehensive annual growth rate is expected to be in the range of 7.5% – 5.5%.
Monetary policy will return to normal
This year, in response to the epidemic, the central bank implemented a loose monetary policy, reducing the deposit reserve ratio three times and the one-year and five-year LPR two times. The growth rate of money and credit was significantly higher than that of last year. The central bank also innovated monetary policy tools directly to the real economy, guiding financial institutions to increase financial support for the real economy, especially for small and micro enterprises.
On the other hand, the broad money supply and the scale of social financing also increased significantly. The growth rate of M2 increased from 8.7% at the beginning of the year to 10.5% in October, and the stock of social financing scale increased from 10.69% at the beginning of the year to 13.7%. The white paper points out that there is nothing wrong with financial support in special periods, but unlimited monetary easing will not only reduce the efficiency of policy, but also accumulate systemic financial risks.
The white paper predicts that in 2021, the central bank will pay attention to the normalization of monetary policy, appropriately control the total amount, fully combine the actual situation and changes in the situation of economic recovery, and maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity and the reasonable growth of money and credit required by economic growth. In 2021, the probability of using the traditional aggregate monetary instruments will decline. When facing the liquidity gap, the central bank may adopt the flexible way of open market operation or innovative instruments directly to entities to adjust the liquidity demand, and the growth rate of M2 and social finance scale will slow down. According to the white paper, there is little room for marginal easing of the central bank’s total policy in 2021, targeted entity support is still available, and structural deleveraging continues to advance.
The white paper also predicts that the central bank will strive to achieve a steady decline in macro leverage in 2021. Although the risk of inflation in 2021 is not great for the time being, the central bank will return to the tone of structural deleveraging and guide it in a balanced way in many aspects. It should adhere to the principle of “housing without speculation” To maintain the steady and healthy operation of the real estate industry, we should ensure the stability of the currency value, realize the reasonable regional fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, orderly promote the smooth convergence of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, steadily break the rigid cashing, and strengthen the supervision of various new financial formats, including technology finance companies.
Investors don’t have to adjust their asset ratio frequently
From the perspective of valuation, economic growth and macro policy, the white paper predicts that the global asset allocation order in 2021 will be commodities, equity, gold and bonds. After the epidemic, the global market returned to the fundamentals of economic resonance recovery, and China’s economy took the opportunity to lead the global revaluation of China’s assets.
The white paper suggests that global equity should be given priority to the allocation of China’s stock market, and over allocation of China’s a shares (prudently recommended) and China’s Hong Kong shares (prudently recommended). In view of the loose liquidity and the demand for allocation, it is suggested to allocate US stocks as standard, but we need to be alert to the inflection point impact of the Federal Reserve policy. In terms of bonds, in view of the current high valuation of convertible bonds and the weakening of cost performance, it is suggested that the standard configuration be adopted. As the economy recovers and the monetary policy returns to normal, it is suggested that interest rate bonds should be allocated as standard. In terms of commodities, gold is still expected to rise due to the anti epidemic easing policy and the depreciation of the US dollar before, and the expectation of economic recovery and fiscal stimulus to inflation after, but at the same time, we need to pay attention to the turning point of the market and suggest standard allocation. Driven by the global resonance recovery, the demand for crude oil is picking up, and the price is expected to return to the pre epidemic level. It is suggested that the crude oil should be supplied as standard. In terms of currency, the depreciation of the US dollar is expected to be strong. It is suggested to allocate RMB and euro at a low level (conservative) and at a high level (cautious).
Finally, the white paper points out that investors should use the concept of asset allocation for long-term investment to achieve their own wealth management goals. It is suggested that investors should not pay too much attention to short-term market fluctuations and frequently adjust their strategic asset proportion. While maintaining a relatively stable proportion of strategic asset allocation, they should adjust the structure of tactical asset allocation and the rhythm of product purchase in combination with market fluctuations The new and old transformation or re inspection optimization of products with the same risk attributes should be carried out.
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