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China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2021 From 2021 medium term global economic outlook report

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The organization for economic cooperation and development yesterday released its latest medium-term economic outlook. The report predicts that the global GDP growth rate will be 5.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. By the middle of 2021, global economic output will exceed the level before the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if the global economic outlook has improved, the output and income of many countries will remain below the expected level before the COVID-19 global pandemic by the end of 2022. The report predicts that China’s economy will grow by 7.8% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.

According to the report, global economic recovery is in sight, but faster and more effective vaccination worldwide is crucial, while respecting the necessary health and social isolation measures. In recent months, economic activity in many industries has picked up and adapted to the limits of the pandemic. Although the deployment of vaccines is unbalanced, it will eventually gain momentum, and the government’s fiscal stimulus measures (especially in the United States) may greatly promote economic activity.

The medium term economic outlook calls for greater vaccination efforts, more rapid and targeted fiscal stimulus measures to boost output and confidence, maintain income support for people and enterprises severely hit by the epidemic, and lay the foundation for sustainable recovery. “Speed is the key,” OECD Secretary General anher guriya said. “There is no room for complacency. Vaccines must be deployed more quickly around the world. This will require better international cooperation and coordination than we have seen so far. Only in this way can we focus on better moving forward and lay the foundation for prosperity and lasting recovery for all. “

The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 6.5% in 2021, with an increase of more than 3 percentage points since December, partly reflecting the ongoing pace of planned massive fiscal stimulus and vaccination, which will also help boost global output. In the euro zone, where fiscal stimulus is low and vaccine promotion is slow, the medium term economic outlook holds that GDP will grow by 3.9%, up by 0.3 percentage points. The future of the Asia Pacific region is brighter. Many countries have effectively controlled the epidemic and industrial activities have regained vitality. China’s GDP growth this year is expected to be 7.8%; Japan’s 2.7%; South Korea’s 3.3%; and Australia’s 4.5%. Emerging market economies in Latin America and Africa are likely to recover more modestly due to slow vaccine deployment and limited space for additional policy support.

Although the medium term economic outlook states that price pressures in developed economies remain generally moderate, the improvement in the prospects for global economic recovery will lead to financial market expectations of rising inflation. In emerging market economies, inflation is likely to rise further. Public debt levels have risen sharply in almost all regions, but the cost of debt service in most OECD economies continues to benefit from extremely low interest rates, thereby protecting fiscal sustainability.

The report said that while the economy is still fragile and subject to restrictive measures, the important support provided by the government to maintain employment and enterprises should be maintained. Special attention needs to be paid to supporting the young and the less skilled in order to avoid the recurrence of the long-term damage to the employment prospects of these vulnerable groups after the 2008 financial crisis.

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