New energy vehicle industryresearch report

Development report of China’s new energy logistics vehicle industry in 2020 From China

The following is the Development report of China’s new energy logistics vehicle industry in 2020 From China recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: New energy vehicle industry, research report.

The research department of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association launched the development report of China’s new energy logistics vehicle industry (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report analyzes the general situation, policy overview, market trend, market demand and existing problems of the new energy logistics vehicle industry in detail, and puts forward policy suggestions. This paper focuses on the current situation and development trend of the industry market.

Industry Overview: from high to low, new energy logistics vehicles have entered the bottleneck period of development

The report expounds the industry overview of new energy logistics vehicles from two aspects: one is the production, manufacturing and market situation of new energy logistics vehicles as a part of automobile manufacturing industry, and the other is the market situation of new energy logistics vehicles in practical service application as a part of service industry.

The new energy logistics vehicle manufacturing industry takes the automobile manufacturing industry chain as the core and is responsible for the design, R & D, testing, manufacturing, circulation, sales, maintenance and recycling of new energy logistics vehicles. From 2014 to 2017, the new energy logistics vehicle market grew from scratch and gradually developed into a market with an annual production and sales volume of 150000. In the four years, the production and sales volume increased nearly 80 times, and the sales penetration rate increased rapidly from less than one thousandth to 4.8%.

However, after 2017, with the decline of subsidies in the new energy vehicle industry and other reasons, the production and sales of new energy logistics vehicles declined. By 2019, the annual sales volume was only 49600, a decrease of 2 / 3 compared with 2017, and the overcapacity was about 23000. The new energy logistics vehicle market has entered a bottleneck period of development.

In terms of models, based on the rapid development of new retail industry at that time, the demand for urban distribution business increased greatly, and new energy mini cars and light vehicles suitable for urban distribution logistics became the absolute leading models. After 2019, with the development of power battery technology and the industry’s more attention to electric heavy trucks, the proportion of new energy medium and heavy trucks suitable for medium and long-distance transportation has increased.

As a tool vehicle for the logistics service industry, new energy logistics vehicles grow synchronously with the rapid development of the logistics industry and the progress of new energy vehicle technology. Especially after 2012, the application of new energy logistics vehicles has been widely promoted. In 2018, the number of new energy logistics vehicles reached 360000, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and the penetration rate among all logistics vehicles has also been continuously improved.

Figure | the penetration rate of new energy logistics vehicles continues to increase (data source: 2019 China new energy logistics vehicle development report)

In addition, according to the monitoring data of the national new energy vehicle data platform, the cumulative access volume of models below 4.5 tons reached 284000 from 2015 to 2019, accounting for 98.9% of the overall access volume, with the highest online rate and the most stable. This shows that new energy logistics vehicles are mainly concentrated in vehicles with a total mass of less than 4.5 tons, and can basically meet the needs of freight scenarios with small load capacity, forming a stable service state.

In the application of subdivided industries, new energy logistics vehicles are mainly applied to the logistics service industry through self operation and leasing. Among them, the self operated mode is mainly applied to the four industries of express, urban distribution, e-commerce self built logistics and vehicle cargo matching platform through the logistics provider’s own vehicles or franchisee’s own vehicles, while the leasing mode is that the logistics service enterprises rent vehicles from a third-party company to obtain the transportation capacity of new energy logistics vehicles. The report illustrates the operation of different types of logistics enterprises such as SF express, huolala, yunniao distribution, JD logistics, rookie network, ground railway, Yiwei new energy and Xinwo transportation capacity.

The application of new energy logistics vehicles and favorable policies have been continuously launched

The report analyzes the overall national policies and typical regional policies.

In terms of overall national policies, different policies are sorted out according to three categories: guiding direction policies, clear target policies and clear preferential policies.

In conclusion, the development of new energy logistics vehicles has been strongly supported by national policies. First, the joint support departments have played a linkage role. From the State Council to many ministries and commissions, they have jointly issued a number of new energy logistics vehicle promotion policies. Second, the promotion tone of new energy logistics vehicles has been clarified, which has laid a strong foundation for the development and application of medium and long-term new energy logistics vehicles. Thirdly, it basically puts forward the promotion objectives of new energy logistics vehicles in the short term, and delimits a clear application route for new energy logistics vehicle manufacturers and logistics providers. Fourth, put forward detailed promotion and landing measures, including purchase preference, right of way preference, tax reduction, financial preference and other ways to improve the market competitiveness of new energy logistics vehicles. Fifth, advocate the construction of an overall social environment conducive to the development of new energy logistics vehicles, and use social forces to promote the development of new energy logistics vehicles through publicity and education and supporting infrastructure.

In terms of typical regional policies, the report arranges and analyzes local policies represented by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Other provinces and cities have also successively launched promotion policies for new energy logistics vehicles to help the development of new energy logistics vehicles from the aspects of Finance and taxation, right of way, infrastructure and so on. Overall, cities or regions with leading economic development have launched more clear promotion objectives, built a more comprehensive promotion policy system, and various policies are being promoted to low-level cities.

The report believes that with the improvement of the application scale of new energy logistics vehicles, more and more regions will launch more favorable policies, forming a good cycle of new energy logistics vehicle applications and favorable policies.

Market trend and demand analysis of new energy logistics vehicles

The report also forecasts the overall market scale of logistics vehicles in the next five years through the analysis of econometric models. Combining the conservative scenario with the positive scenario, the neutral forecast result is that the annual truck sales will reach 5.24 million in 2025.

However, as the new energy logistics vehicle industry is still in the initial development stage, it has not formed a stable market cycle. At the same time, the sales volume of new energy logistics vehicles is often affected by national and local incentive policies, which is easy to form a short-term sales peak. Therefore, its sales volume in the next few years is very unpredictable. By analyzing the key factors affecting the sales of new energy logistics vehicles, the report interprets the future trend of new energy logistics vehicles:

1. Cost performance improvement of core parts: the cost of new energy logistics vehicles is greatly affected by three electric components. With the improvement of the performance and quality of key components of the whole vehicle, the optimization and monitoring of battery management system will be more perfect, which will reduce the failure rate of the whole vehicle and the occurrence of safety accidents, and improve the overall competitiveness of new energy logistics vehicles.

2. Economy is closely related to the use scenario: the degree of cost saving will depend on its operation scenario and use frequency. Among them, the penetration of new energy logistics vehicles with high use frequency and independent of high price public charging scenarios will be better.

Figure | average annual energy saving cost of an electric logistics vehicle under different operation scenarios (unit: yuan) (data source: calculated by chebai think tank)

*4.5t logistics vehicle is adopted, with electric power consumption of 30kwh per 100km and fuel consumption of 12.5l per 100km

3. Impact of new business model: vehicle electricity separation, time-sharing leasing and other models will effectively reduce the initial purchase cost of new energy logistics vehicle operating enterprises, and solve the problems of difficult battery recovery and low residual value of new energy vehicles.

4. Policy impact: from 2023, the state subsidy will be basically withdrawn. At that time, if there is no continuation of policies such as double points for commercial vehicles, the promotion of some new energy models that do not compete with traditional logistics vehicles will be restricted. The time and proportion of double points have become the key factors for new energy flow vehicles to replace traditional vehicles.

In terms of demand, the report first analyzes the overall situation of logistics vehicles. From the aspects of vehicle form, vehicle type, use nature, sales area, price range, power demand, fuel type and load distribution, it is concluded that the logistics vehicle market shows a trend of polarization, that is, the market is increasingly concentrated in the two segments of light logistics vehicles and heavy logistics vehicles, while the medium-sized logistics vehicle market is squeezed. At the same time, the overall performance of the vehicle has been steadily improved, the market competition has been significantly enhanced, and the segmentation of the market is obvious.

Continuing the overall research framework of logistics vehicles, the report continues to make further analysis on the market demand of new energy logistics vehicles.

In 2019, the number of new energy logistics vehicles in China was 23900, down 58% from 56600 in 2018. In 2020, new energy logistics vehicles will continue the downturn in 2019, and the insurance volume in the first half of the year is only 8000. Meanwhile, the penetration of new energy logistics vehicles into the overall logistics vehicle market decreased from 1.86% in 2018 to 0.74%, and then to 0.4% in the first half of 2020.

The main reason for the continuous decline of the new energy logistics vehicle market is the phased completion of the electric replacement project of local logistics vehicles during 2018-2019, and the power of new logistics vehicles to use electric replacement is weakened. However, on the other hand, it reflects that the replacement effect of pure electric logistics vehicles during 2018-2019 remains to be discussed and has not been fully recognized by the logistics vehicle market.

Different from the market characteristics of traditional logistics vehicles, new energy logistics vehicles are still concentrated in light vehicles and micro vehicles. On the one hand, it reflects that the market recognition of the performance of new energy logistics vehicles is not high enough, on the other hand, it reflects that the layout of new energy logistics vehicles in the medium and heavy vehicle market is relatively backward. However, at the same time, the overall power level of new energy logistics vehicles has increased significantly, and the energy density of battery system is also increasing steadily. Therefore, the competition in the two market segments of mini vehicles and light vehicles is still quite fierce.

The report also analyzes the demand of rural new energy logistics vehicle market. In general, rural users know very little about new energy logistics vehicles. The demand of rural users for logistics vehicles has more obvious regional characteristics. Mining this new market is of great significance for new energy logistics vehicle manufacturers to expand their scale and seize the first opportunity.

Problems of new energy logistics vehicles and 6 policy suggestions

Through the above analysis, the problems of new energy logistics vehicles can be summarized as follows:

1. The performance stability of new energy logistics vehicles is still insufficient: some product technologies need to be improved. For example, when charging at low temperature, the charging efficiency often decreases rapidly, and the growth increases greatly during charging, which affects the actual vehicle, and the power attenuation is serious, which affects the vehicle load and maneuverability under individual working conditions. In particular, the battery attenuation of new energy logistics vehicles needs to be considered. With the in-depth use of new energy logistics vehicles, battery attenuation has become the main pain point in the use of operators.

2. The gap between product cost performance and traditional logistics vehicles: at present, new energy logistics vehicles are still in the initial stage, and there is still an obvious gap between new energy logistics vehicles and traditional logistics vehicles in terms of load, power, space and mileage. At the same time, the price of new energy logistics vehicles is still relatively high, and the disadvantages of new energy logistics vehicles compared with traditional logistics vehicles are more obvious. Without considering the performance attenuation, the cost performance of new energy electric vehicles with the same registration performance is lower, which affects the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles.

3. The standard system of new energy logistics vehicles needs to be strengthened: at present, the life cycle management system of new energy logistics vehicles has not been established. Whether it is the maintenance standard of complete vehicles and parts, or the standard of residual value recovery of electric logistics vehicles, it is urgent to establish and solve.

4. The service environment of new energy logistics vehicles needs to be improved:

◎ in terms of policy environment, on the one hand, the national subsidy and local subsidy of new energy vehicles have significantly declined, which has affected the purchase enthusiasm of the market to a certain extent, and the subsequent market performance needs to be observed. On the other hand, although all localities have issued policies and plans for the promotion of new energy logistics vehicles, these policies and plans are often not clear enough, resulting in the obvious lack of promotion of new energy logistics vehicles.

◎ in terms of right of way environment, although all localities have issued preferential policies for the right of way of new energy logistics vehicles, there are some problems such as unclear policies and inadequate implementation.

◎ in terms of charging environment, the charging infrastructure for new energy logistics vehicles is seriously insufficient.

Combined with the above problems, the report puts forward 6 relevant policy suggestions:

1. Accelerate the research and implementation of the dual credit system for commercial vehicles;

2. Gradually establish a subsidy mechanism for the conversion from traditional logistics vehicles to new energy logistics vehicles;

3. Continuously promote and strictly implement the preferential policies for the operation of urban new energy logistics vehicles;

4. Accelerate the demonstration application of new energy logistics vehicles in the public domain;

5. Vigorously improve the charging infrastructure construction of urban new energy logistics vehicles;

6. Promote the research and development of high-performance technologies and products for new energy logistics vehicles and batteries.

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