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The following is the Enlightenment and policy suggestions on the development comparison between China and the world’s major economies in 2020 From China Minsheng Bank recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy, global economy , research report.
1、 Research background and purpose
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the proposal of formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goal of 2035. In order to implement the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, correctly grasp the main contradictions in the new era, and on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, further move forward to building a socialist modern power, we need to comprehensively understand and analyze the development situation of China and the world’s major economies, and find out the correct positioning. To this end, the Research Institute of China Minsheng Bank has formed a research group. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results such as the global competitiveness index (GCI) of the world economic forum and the comprehensive development index (CDI) of the National Bureau of statistics, the research group has applied and screened 12 indicators, including productivity level, economic structure, basic natural resources, infrastructure, knowledge economy and innovation The indicators are classified into three types, namely “factor driven”, “efficiency driven” and “innovation driven”, and compared horizontally with the world’s major economies such as the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and emerging market countries, and the world average level (mainly based on 2019) This paper combs and analyzes the gap between China and the world’s major economies, puts forward corresponding policy suggestions, and forms a report entitled “enlightenment and policy suggestions on the development comparison between China and the world’s major economies (2020)”.
2、 Compared with the world’s leading countries in various fields of economic and social development, China has achieved steady growth in total amount, reached a higher level per capita, and made the first contribution to global growth. After more than 70 years since the founding of new China, especially more than 40 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, China has ranked the second largest economy in the world for 10 consecutive years. In 2019, China’s GDP will reach 1434.9 billion US dollars, accounting for 16.4% of the world’s GDP, 0.5 percentage point higher than that in 2018. US $213744.4 billion, accounting for 24.4% of the world. In terms of purchasing power parity, China’s GDP accounts for 17.3% of the world’s GDP (15.8% in the United States), which is higher than that of the United States for six consecutive years, ranking first in the world.
From the perspective of per capita productivity, in 2019, China’s per capita GDP reached US $10262, breaking through US $10000 for the first time, an increase of 2.9% compared with 2018, ranking 65th in the world (up one place compared with 2018), equivalent to 90% of the world average (86% in 2018). There is still a big gap from the average level of high-income countries (US $44500), only about one sixth of that of the United States.
In terms of economic growth, China’s economy will grow by 6.1% year on year in 2019, 0.6 percentage point slower than that in 2018. It has contributed 32.4% to global economic growth, up from 27.4% in 2018, and is still the largest contributor to global economic growth.
2. The economic structure still needs to be improved and the space for urbanization is still large
From the perspective of economic structure, the proportion of service industry and consumption in GDP is still lower than that of major countries in the world. In 2019, the added value of China’s service industry accounts for 53.9% of GDP, and the final consumption accounts for 55.4% of GDP, both of which are higher than those in 2018. Global trade will recover in 2019, with China’s total merchandise trade accounting for 31.9% of GDP, 2.1 percentage points lower than that in 2018, and still lower than that in Germany and South Korea (both above 60%).
New urbanization provides sustainable power for economic development. In the past 10 years, China’s urbanization rate has increased by 12.4 percentage points, which is one of the fastest urbanization countries in the world. In 2019, China’s urbanization rate will reach 60.3%, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in 2018, which is higher than the world average and the level of middle-income countries. Compared with developed countries, China still has more space for urbanization.
3. Good macroeconomic stability
Over the past decade, China’s inflation level has been relatively moderate. Pork prices have pushed China’s inflation rate to 2.9% in 2019, which is 0.8 percentage point higher than that in 2018, and will gradually decline in 2020. With the new epidemic situation pushing up the unemployment rate of various countries, China’s latest unemployment rate will remain at 4.7% in 2020, thanks to the important role played by the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” policies during the epidemic period.
In 2019, China’s fiscal deficit will account for 6.3% of GDP (according to the IMF, excluding the income and balance of the budget stability adjustment fund). By the end of 2019, China’s public debt accounted for 52.6% of GDP, up 2 percentage points from 2018, mainly due to the implementation of active fiscal policy. At present, the debt level is generally stable and controllable.
The proportion of China’s broad money in GDP in 2019 is 197%, which is 2% higher than that in 2018. Due to the impact of the new epidemic, it is expected to continue to rise in 2020.
4. The infrastructure has made significant progress, and there is still room for improvement
In terms of electricity, China’s per capita electricity consumption in 2019 was 5177 kwh, an increase of 272 kwh compared with 2018, 26 times of 1975. At present, the per capita electricity consumption level has exceeded the average level of middle-income countries and the world, but there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries, less than half of the United States.
In terms of transportation, the total mileage of China’s highway network in 2019 will reach 5012500 km, an increase of 166000 km compared with 2018; the density will be 52.4 km / 100 square kilometers, higher than that of middle-income countries, but there is still a big gap with Japan, Western Europe and other developed countries. In 2019, China’s total railway mileage has exceeded 139000 km, with a density of 1.45 km / 100 km2, which is still lower than the level of major developed countries in the world. However, the mileage and new mileage of high-speed railway rank first in the world. The operating mileage in 2019 is 35400 km, an increase of 20.7% compared with 2018. In 2019, the passenger volume of China’s civil aviation is 660 million, ranking second in the world, 48 million times more than that in 2018; however, the number of flights per capita is only 0.47, still lower than the world average (0.56).
In terms of communication, the number of mobile phone accounts per 100 people in China is 114.4, which is developing rapidly and is comparable to that of developed countries such as Britain and France.
Since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in the field of infrastructure. The total amount of power, transportation, communication and other fields has been in the leading level in the world, and the density is better than that of middle-income countries, but there is still a gap compared with developed countries in terms of per capita.
5. The per capita natural resources are far lower than the world average level, and the downward trend has been reversed in recent years. In 2019, China’s per capita water resources is 2077 cubic meters, which is only 35% of the world’s per capita value; the per capita cultivated land area is only 761 square meters, which is less than half of the global average value, and the average value is 1960 The forest coverage rate is 23%, which is lower than the world average (30.7%), but it has been increasing for many years.
In 2019, China’s proven oil reserves are 25.9 billion barrels, accounting for 1.61% of the world’s total, 18.6 barrels per capita, 1 / 11 of the world’s average; in 2020, China’s proven natural gas reserves are 6.3 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 3.1% of the world’s total, 4517 cubic meters per capita, only 15.9% of the world’s per capita reserves; in 2019, China’s proven coal reserves are 141.6 billion tons, 101.3 tons per capita; in 2019, China’s proven natural gas reserves are 1.3 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 3.1% of the world ‘ The iron content of the proven iron ore reserves is 6.9 billion tons, 4.9 tons per capita, which is lower than the global per capita value (10.6 tons).
Generally speaking, the lack of natural resources per capita in China has become an important factor restricting social and economic development.
6. The level of medical care has been rising steadily, and remarkable achievements have been made in dealing with major infectious diseases. The average life expectancy of China in 2018 is 76.7 years, 0.2 years higher than that in 2017, which is higher than the world average (72.6 years), but there is still a big gap from developed countries. In 2019, the number of licensed doctors per 10000 people in China will be 28, which is 2 more than that in 2018, far lower than that in Germany (42.5 per 10000 people). In 2018, the number of hospital beds per 10000 people was 60.2, which was 3 more than that in 2017, but far lower than that in Japan (134 beds / 10000 people). Significant achievements have been made in response to major infectious diseases. By December 2020, the number of new confirmed cases per million people is only 64.23, which is one 700 times of that in the United States.
7. Basic education has made remarkable progress, but higher education still needs to catch up
In 2019, the number of teachers per 10000 people in China is 91.9, which is higher than the global average (90.9 per 10000 people). Since the reform and opening up, basic education has made remarkable progress.
In 2019, the proportion of people over 24 years old with higher education qualifications in China will be 22.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in 2019, but there is a big gap compared with major countries in the world. China’s gross enrollment rate of higher education in 2019 is 53.8%, 3.2 percentage points higher than that in 2018. In 2018, China is expected to have 13.9 years of education, which is still about two to four years less than some developed countries.
However, in recent decades, China’s higher education development is speeding up to catch up with developed countries.
8. The overall level of tax revenue is reasonable, but the comprehensive tax burden of enterprises is relatively high. By comparing the macro tax burden of small, medium and large countries, the proportion of China’s small caliber macro tax burden (tax revenue) in GDP in 2019 is 15.9%, ranking lower among the major countries, and the tax burden is not heavy. However, the medium caliber macro tax burden (fiscal revenue) accounts for 24.3% of GDP, which is equal to that of the United States. Non tax revenue such as social security fund plays an important role in fiscal revenue. China’s large-scale macro tax burden (government revenue) accounts for 33.3% of GDP, which is lower than that of France and Germany, and higher than that of the United States (29.4%), indicating that land revenue, state-owned capital revenue, social contributions and other non-financial revenue have become an important part of government revenue.
In 2019, China’s enterprise tax accounts for 59.2% of business profits, which is only lower than that of Brazil and France in major countries, and only 36.6% in the United States. This shows that a large part of China’s enterprises’ business profits are used for tax payment, and there is still much room for enterprises to reduce taxes and fees in the future.
9. The financial industry has maintained steady development
In 2019, China’s financial industry accounted for 7.8% of GDP, up 0.1 percentage point from 2018, and rebounded for the first time after three consecutive years of decline. Second only to South Africa, it ranks second with the United States in the world’s major economies.
In 2019, China’s private sector bank credit balance accounted for 165% of GDP, an increase of 4 percentage points compared with 2018, second only to the United States among major countries. In 2019, the share of trading volume of China’s stock market in GDP will rise sharply to 133%, which is mainly due to the bottom recovery of the stock market and the accelerated reform of the capital market.
In 2019, China’s premium income accounted for 4.3% of GDP, which was 0.08% higher than that in 2018, significantly lower than that in major developed countries. There is a huge space for the development of the insurance industry in the future.
10. The level of environmental protection and sustainable development has been improved, and the space for energy conservation and emission reduction is still large. In 2019, the average concentration of PM2.5 in China is 39.1 μ g / m3, which is 9% lower than the average concentration of pollutants in 2018. Although it is still far higher than the level of developed countries, it is lower than the world average level for the first time, and the effect of air quality improvement is beginning to show.
China’s energy consumption per unit GDP in 2019 is 144 grams of standard oil equivalent per US dollar, which is 4 grams lower than that in 2018. The level of energy consumption has improved. In 2018, the carbon emission per unit GDP will be 0.372kg/usd, which is more and more close to the world average.
11. The population growth decelerates obviously, and the aging pressure increases
The natural growth rate of China’s population in 2019 is 3.34 ‰, which is 0.47 thousand points lower than that in 2018, of which the birth rate is 10.48 ‰, which is 0.46 thousand points lower than that in 2018, indicating that the effect of the “comprehensive two child” policy is declining faster, and the one child fertility rate is also declining.
In 2019, the proportion of working age population in China will be 70.7%, 0.5% lower than that in 2018, but still higher than that in most countries. The dependency ratio for the elderly was 16.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than that in 2018, and 2.3 percentage points higher than the world average. The pressure of aging is further increasing.
In 2019, the average pre tax wage of Urban Non private sector employees in China will be 90504 yuan, about 13119 US dollars, an increase of 5.3% compared with 2018. The absolute level is not high, but the growth rate is leading in the world.
12. The total input and output of R & D and innovation in science and technology are relatively large, and the number of patents continues to grow rapidly. In 2019, the proportion of China’s R & D expenditure in GDP is 2.23%, up 0.04% compared with 2018, but it is still only about half of the world’s leading level. In 2018, the total amount of full-time equivalent of China’s scientific research personnel continued to maintain the first place in the world, but the full-time equivalent per 10000 people was only 30.7, an increase of 2.3 compared with 2017, a quarter of that of Denmark, and a third of that of Japan and South Korea, still significantly different from that of developed countries.
The number of international patents increased rapidly, ranking first in the world for the fifth consecutive year. In 2019, the total number of invention patents authorized from China will reach 3998.78 million, an increase of 6% over 2018. 86 pieces per 10000 people, an increase of 0.14 pieces over 2018, but only 1 / 11 of Switzerland’s. In 2019, China’s high-tech exports will reach 715.8 billion US dollars, ranking first in the world, accounting for 27.1% of the total exports, ranking first in the world.
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