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Global economic outlook in 2021 From kpmg

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KPMG released the “global economic outlook” report on March 10, expecting the global economy to continue to recover from the impact of the epidemic. After a decline of 3.1% in 2020, global GDP is expected to grow by 5.0% this year. In 2022, it will continue to recover and grow by 4.4%. The report predicts that global inflation will rise to 2.3% this year and the unemployment rate will fall to 6.3%. In addition, the report focuses on China, the United States, the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, South Africa and other regions and economies, and analyzes the economic recovery track and characteristics of countries in the post epidemic era from a global perspective. We found that:

COVID-19 has enhanced the role of governments worldwide.

Emergency policies have increased a lot of debt, but the low interest rate environment has magnified the scale of sustainable borrowing by governments.

In the post epidemic era, we may see a long-term change, that is, the state plays a more important role in the economy, especially in the field of health.


The consumption and service industries will continue to recover in 2021 and contribute more to China’s economic recovery in the future.

External demand is expected to remain strong, supporting exports.

The monetary and fiscal policies introduced last year to fight against the epidemic will be gradually normalized, and the pace of policy adjustment is crucial.

We expect China to achieve 8.8% GDP growth in 2021. There is a certain upward pressure on prices, but affected by the high base of food prices last year, consumer prices will remain stable in the short term.


Thanks to a massive fiscal and monetary response, the US avoided the economic disaster that COVID-19 might cause in 2020.

Nevertheless, the U.S. economy is still recovering in a “K” shape, and the industries and families most vulnerable to the epidemic still need assistance to prevent long-term economic trauma.

The path of recovery depends on the supportive policy environment and the outbreak of productivity in the post epidemic era due to the substantial improvement of technology level of enterprises and families.


Tighter social segregation restrictions in response to the rise in the number of infected people will frustrate the process of economic recovery.

Despite the support of loose fiscal and monetary policies, the recovery path within the whole eurozone will continue to diverge.


The acceleration of vaccine promotion will support the steady economic recovery in the second half of 2021.

Quarantine measures in the first quarter will give back some of the gains in the second half of 2020.

Frictions related to brexit and limited progress on services trade with the EU will inhibit economic recovery.


Due to the timely relaxation of public health restrictions and the introduction of vaccination program, Japan’s economy has a good short-term prospect.

Due to the negative impact of policy measures and epidemic situation on prices, low inflation rate is expected to continue.

Although the debt level is high, low interest rates provide room for further fiscal policy stimulus.


India’s economy is showing early signs of a broad V-shaped recovery, thanks to larger public stimulus spending, a recovery in consumer confidence, strong financial markets and rising manufacturing activity.

The planned 34.5% increase in capital expenditure will boost private investment while stimulating demand.

With the accelerated pace of economic recovery and vaccine promotion, it is expected that the income level and employment opportunities will be further improved in fiscal 2022.

India is expected to be one of the Asian countries with the fastest economic rebound.

Middle East

The pace of economic recovery in the Middle East will be different, highlighting the diversity of regional economic development.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are more resilient to the economic impact of the epidemic.

Regional economic vulnerability will still exist, and epidemic situation and oil price are still key indicators affecting the economy.

Saudi Arabia

Base effect and oil price recovery will support the mild recovery since the second half of 2020.

The ban on international travel will limit pilgrimage related economic flows and balance of payments, at least until the second half of 2021.

Saudi Arabia’s finance is still relatively strong compared with other countries, but the balance sheet of the public sector is still vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and related international demand.


Nigeria’s economy is expected to recover moderately in 2021.

As sentiment in the oil market improves, the oil sector is likely to recover, while the agriculture and telecommunications sectors are expected to achieve moderate growth.

High inflation, mainly due to supply chain shocks, is expected to weaken this year.

High unemployment and underemployment are expected to continue this year.

South Africa

The national budget aims at financial sustainability and economic growth.

The promotion of vaccines provides an optimistic factor for achieving positive growth.

The economy still faces resistance from huge public debt, unstable power supply and the need for structural reform.

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