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The following is the Handbook of Global trade statistics 2020 From United Nations Conference on Trade and development recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: global economy , research report.
As part of its statistical manual 2020, the “real-time forecast” released by the conference today shows that the volume of global merchandise trade is expected to decline by 5.6% in 2020 compared with last year. This will be the largest decline in merchandise trade since 2009, when trade fell 22%. However, this is much more optimistic than the 9 per cent decline estimated by UNCTAD a few weeks ago.
Figures show that the decline in trade in services is expected to be even greater, with the volume of trade in services likely to decline by 15.4% in 2020 compared with that in 2019. That would be the biggest drop since 1990. After the global financial crisis in 2009, the volume of trade in services fell by 9.5%.
The latest information on a quarterly basis is contained in the international trade in services Bulletin of UNCTAD. The quarterly report showed that the decline was due to a sharp decline in travel, transport and tourism activities.
This year, however, the new pandemic has changed conventional business, increasing the demand for up-to-date data on the economic impact of the epidemic, as well as affecting statistical models.
“Unlike in previous years, the models now used to predict international trade and GDP have to deal with the most unusual situation in human memory,” said Steve macfeely, chief statistician at the conference. The existing model collapsed under pressure and had to be redesigned and modeled. “
While the manual depicts Global trade in goods and services, maritime affairs, demographic conditions and other economic trends in 2019, there is an urgent need to predict the economic impact of the new pandemic, he said.
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