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Recovery, consolidation and reform will rebound the economy From Asia forecast for 2021

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The following is the Recovery, consolidation and reform will rebound the economy From Asia forecast for 2021 recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: global economy , Deloitte Consulting , research report.

Economies with more room for policy adjustment are expected to lead the way

The report predicts that most Asian economies will return to their pre epidemic output levels by the end of 2021, with infrastructure, communications / information technology, life sciences and other industries expected to lead the growth.

The report points out that the global superpowers stop trade protectionism measures, some countries (India and Indonesia) implement policy interest rate cuts, and the further in-depth implementation of unconventional monetary policies (such as yield curve control 1 and forward-looking guidance 2) are important factors to push the economy back on track. The report also believes that despite the gradual and cautious decline in financial support, governments will continue to implement various targeted measures to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, such as easing credit repayment conditions and government loan guarantees.

Xu Sitao, chief economist of Deloitte China, said: “regions with more room for policy adjustment will lead the development, as will regions with strong domestic demand engine. In terms of exports, technology will become a major growth bright spot, especially in the context of many new generation technologies constantly changing from concept to reality. The restructuring of the supply chain will contribute to the development of economies with lower production costs. At the same time, foreign direct investment is likely to usher in a wave of revival of the Soviet Union. “

Health care, corporate lending, consumer debt, infrastructure projects and business ecosystem issues remain to be addressed

This issue of “focus on Asia” points out that although the above-mentioned economic recovery in the Asia Pacific region is basically good, there are still many aspects that need to be improved in order to ensure a comprehensive recovery.

These include the health-care system defects exposed by the new outbreak; high corporate lending in China – high consumer debt in economies such as Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand; delayed infrastructure investment (India, Indonesia and the Philippines); stagnant business ecosystem optimization process (India and Indonesia).

There are signs that reforms are accelerating everywhere

In analyzing the reforms needed to boost economic recovery, the report listed reducing trade protectionism, tackling technological disruption and addressing climate change as three key areas.

Progress has been made in these areas. China has continued to promote the opening up of its domestic economy to the outside world, while striving to enhance its capacity for independent innovation in core technologies; Indonesia has passed a comprehensive bill aimed at promoting reforms in various fields, including a negative investment list (only six industries are now prohibited from foreign investment). Small economies, such as Vietnam, recently signed a free trade agreement with the European Union.

“In view of this year’s situation, we need to be careful to point out that this report is based on a variety of assumptions. The main assumption is that effective prevention and control of the epidemic will help to mitigate the risk before the vaccine is launched,” Xu added

“As the epidemic prevention and control situation stabilizes, policy makers will be more confident to lift the restrictions, so as to stimulate consumption, promote enterprises to expand the scale of recruitment, increase technology investment and enhance production capacity. Although the overall rebound of tourism industry is longer than other industries, it will also usher in recovery and recovery. “

At present, the epidemic prevention and control in many regions in the Asia Pacific region has achieved positive results. Only by continuing to implement relevant measures can we reduce the impact of the epidemic. This not only requires the efforts of the government, but more importantly, the people should also consciously participate in the fight against the epidemic, including strictly abiding by the blockade measures, wearing masks, maintaining social distance and so on.

Biden government policy trend forecast

In the latest issue of focus on Asia, we discuss and analyze the impact of the US election results on the Asia Pacific region in the penultimate chapter. According to Deloitte’s basic forecast, Sino US relations and trade policies may be improved; the domestic stimulus policy of the United States will promote the export volume of Asia’s bulk commodities and industrial manufactured goods; at the same time, the new government’s renewal of alliance relations will benefit India and Southeast Asian countries.

Demand for digital services surges in Southeast Asia and South Asia

The financial section of the report summarizes the main findings of the “afterwave: emerging digital life in Southeast Asia and South Asia”, a recent research report released by Deloitte China, focusing on the rapid rise of digital life in these two regions.

According to the report “the emerging digital life in Southeast Asia and South Asia”, with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the demand for digital services in Southeast Asia and South Asia has soared. 78% of the respondents said that they have increased the use of digital services, especially in television programs, online games, e-commerce, social networking, online office and online education.

The demand for digital payment has also increased significantly, thus promoting financial technology enterprises to adopt digital platforms to provide convenient services for people with low utilization rate of bank services or without bank accounts.

Although e-commerce is popular in Southeast Asia and South Asia for its high-speed, convenient, wide range of products and low-cost, the survey shows that most people only do online shopping when necessary. Therefore, in the relatively underdeveloped markets in the two regions, online shopping still has a lot of room for growth.

“From a macro perspective, digital life will make outstanding contributions to the economic development of the two regions,” Xu concluded. However, countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia still need to make up for the gaps and deficiencies in digital infrastructure, encourage the use of electronic payment, provide services for people with low utilization rate of banking services, strengthen network security, cross regional communication and cooperation, and promote the construction of local digital innovation ecosystem and personnel training. “

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