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The following is the The next decade of China Intemet From Technology is king recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Smart car, Ipsos, research report.
Nowadays, the automotive industry is closely related to the booming information and communication technology (ICT) such as artificial intelligence (AI), communication technology, 5g and cloud services. In the next 5-10 years, the integration of “automobile + technology” will be deepened in an all-round way. Based on years of insight into the automotive industry, Ipsos explores how technology will drive the development of the automotive industry, how the future automobile will be redefined, and how the automobile main engine plant should seize the opportunity and take advantage of the situation to maintain its leading position in the industry, so as to have an insight into the next decade of China’s intelligent networked automobile.
1. Intelligent connected vehicle
Promote the transformation of future automobile from mechanical products to intelligent Internet terminals
The early concept of the Internet of vehicles originated from the Internet of things, that is, the Internet of things of vehicles. So far, the second stage has been realized, that is, the connection between car and smartphone. With the continuous development of the Internet of vehicles, it is expected that in the next ten years, real-time interaction between people and vehicles (stage 3), multi sensory interaction with main passengers, and real-time driving safety guarantee in stage 4 will be realized to avoid collision accidents.
The upgrading of on-board operating system and the multi sensory interaction function driven by artificial intelligence continue to promote the development of intelligent networked vehicles. As one of the key elements of human-computer interaction (HMI) system, on-board operating system (AOS) plays an important role in responding to the needs of drivers or passengers.
In China, the on-board operating system is in the stage of development, and is expected to achieve functional diversification and modular integration in the future. With the increase of consumer demand, entertainment and other multi-functional application ecology in vehicle operating system is forming. Hardware and software modules will be further integrated in a small number of domains to reduce energy consumption. At the same time, in addition to the long-term competition with similar enterprises, technology companies use their rich mobile application ecology to develop on-board operating system, which also has a fierce competition with them.
The technology application derived from artificial intelligence, from the face / figure recognition of computer vision (CV), intelligent voice assistant of speech recognition to natural language processing (NLP), carries out basic human-computer interaction. The technology is enabling the multi sensory real-time interaction ability of intelligent networked vehicles.
2. Automatic driving
Development status, trend, main opportunities and challenges of automatic driving based on Intelligent Network
With the advent of the intelligent era and the breakthrough of technology, China’s automatic driving is actively using advanced driving assistance system (ADAS) from L2 stage, that is, part of manual intervention to L3 stage (conditional Automation). Technological breakthroughs can be divided into three aspects: environment perception, big data computing and vehicle control.
In view of the low requirements of L2 autopilot on environment perception and the pressure of the main engine plant on cost control, “camera + radar + computer vision” is still the mainstream solution in the next five years. With more and more companies entering the market and the full commercialization of L3 level, lidar technology is expected to mature, become the necessary hardware and reduce the cost.
Platform and Computing
The market of automatic driving platform is highly dispersed and dominated by foreign technology companies and hardware manufacturers. At present, technology giants and hardware manufacturers (chips / semiconductors) have the greatest development potential. Most of the industry leading autopilot platforms and hardware suppliers are foreign companies.
In order to be invincible in the increasingly competitive market, the main engine manufacturers explore different business models to carry out the research and development of automatic driving through the establishment of alliances, mergers and acquisitions or independent development, among which the establishment of alliances is highly sought after by the main engine manufacturers.
In order to overcome the technical obstacles of automatic driving, large-scale engine manufacturers have established two kinds of alliances, which share the R & D cost and exchange technology with other engine manufacturers. Since 2017, Volkswagen and Ford have cooperated in the global research and development of autonomous driving / electric vehicles and achieved channel sharing. At the same time, some large-scale host plants will form alliances with technology companies to build and improve the development system. Since 2016, BMW and Intel – Mobileye have been working together to develop autonomous driving technology.
In 2016, General Motors acquired cruise automation, a self driving service provider, and required it to operate independently to further study self driving technology. The main engine plant acquires small and medium-sized technology companies / start-ups to utilize their technical expertise to enable automatic driving development.
Individual OEMs set up new business departments / companies to independently develop autonomous driving technology, such as adding new companies before Toyota, rather than cooperating with technology companies.
The integration and centralization of electronic / electrical architecture are developing with the development of automatic driving; however, it is still a long way to achieve large-scale application, especially for traditional main engine plants. At present, some OEMs such as Geely and Tesla have taken positive measures to upgrade the electronic / electrical architecture. The integration of electronic / electrical architecture is imperative to ensure the effective interaction between computing and vehicle control and realize energy consumption optimization.
Ipsos learned from interviews with well-known online car Hailing industry experts that in the next 5-10 years, with the development of intelligent Internet connected vehicles and automatic driving, “Maas” will become the mainstream mode of travel in the future with the seamless connection with public transport.
With the development of car sharing industry, travel as a service is highly praised by consumers. Although most consumers own private cars, the overall frequency of use will decrease, especially on weekdays. No matter how the development of travel as a service (MAAS) is, we believe that Chinese consumers will not give up buying cars. In the future, the two will co-exist and will not be in a competitive relationship.
Until 2030, fully autonomous driving will not be available in Maas. Although fully automatic driving has been put into trial operation in some specific areas (for example, Didi travel preferred the specific automatic driving test section in Shanghai as the pilot area of automatic driving travel service). However, in the next 10 years, fully automatic driving will still be difficult to realize the Maas on the open road nationwide. Further technological development, systematic regulations and consumer education / confidence still need to be broken through. At the same time, the large-scale employment of drivers in China will become another obstacle for the application of fully automatic driving in travel as a service.
Non OEM B2C mode (i.e. travel platform operated by non OEM and equipped with full-time drivers) will become the mainstream of Maas market, B2C mode will further occupy the market share of travel services, because market standardization requires more professionally trained drivers; in the long run, the improvement of automatic driving can gradually replace manual driving, which should be done by platform rather than individual drivers Done. The role of OEMs should be changed from a single automobile manufacturer to a partner / supplier of Maas platform.
3. Enlightenment to main engine plant
Competitive cooperation: in the core technology fields of autonomous driving, artificial intelligence and cloud services, cooperation is the first choice for OEMs to establish competitive advantages. The main engine factory needs to evaluate the internal talent resources and capabilities, and optimize the organizational structure and capabilities through external recruitment or tapping the potential of existing employees according to the R & D and business needs, so as to ensure the stable and efficient development of the enterprise in the rapidly changing environment.
Electronic / electrical architecture integration and product upgrading: with the development of intelligent networked vehicles, electronic / electrical architecture integration is indispensable for the main engine plant. Therefore, it is very important to make a clear development plan for the integration of electronic / electrical architecture and the research and development of the models suitable for it; in addition, the energy saving and emission reduction brought by the weight reduction and size reduction of parts is still the key direction of automobile improvement.
Target customer Transformation: with the maturity of travel as a service (MAAS) technology, travel as a service providers will become the main buyers of low-end cars. At this time, the main engine factory should reconsider its target customer base, and increase the marketing of Maas platform.
Customized intelligent networked vehicle: in addition to understanding the driving behavior of consumers, it is also very important for automobile enterprises to understand the human-computer interaction behavior preference to realize the intelligent networked vehicle; the main engine factory should provide customized on-board operation system and application ecosystem for the target customer group (individual consumers vs. travel service providers), so as to enhance the added value of products and reflect differentiated services.
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