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The following is the Discussion on deep re offering, growth space and business model From Kwai VS tiktok recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Securities report, Short video, Webcast.
Kwai VS tiktok: the rise of both short video giants. Tiktok Kwai has entered the two strong era, one is “de centralization” rooted in the community, and the other is to emphasize quality and exploding money, and to pursue the impact effect. Catch up from behind, Kwai tiktok initiative.
The essence of the contest between “double column” and “single column” is the game of relationship and content. The Kwai Fu “first relates to the content”, Cheng Yi Xiao and Su Hua insist on the “general benefit” flow distribution mechanism. Tiktok is “the first thing to do with content”, and its content is the core competitiveness that it most values. Focusing on Kwai Fu or focusing on quality content alone can not be a long-term survival way. Therefore, we believe that the outcome of game between content and content is the convergence of tiktok and jitter in competition and mapping.
Tiktok VS: Kwai Chung: the future growth space. (1) The short video industry pattern determines the duopoly, but the overlapping users are expected to reach more than 60%, similar to the user pattern of Alibaba and pinduoduo in the e-commerce industry; (2) the convergence of platform growth and operation ideas determines that the Mau of both sides may break through 6 Tiktok Kwai billion; (3) the number of fast user users is expected to grow in the future from the fast version of the Kwai Tai version, while the extreme version of the users will mostly come from the existing users. Kwai’s driving force for future growth:
One is the number of users; the other is the duration of use. Tiktok (1) as MAU is further approaching the jitter, the user stickiness promotes the growth of DAU. Assuming that MAU (800 million) * user stickiness (60%) = Kwai’s target DAU (500 million); (2) the increment of time duration comes from the growth of fragmentation time, which will bring the total video duration longer.
Kwai VS tiktok: supply difference. Kwai tiktok is humorous and music, and the market in the social sphere is the main purpose of Kwai Chi. Short video is just a means to cut into the social sphere; it is a partial voice and entertainment, and a social hot spot, providing accurate content distribution, allowing high-quality content to be seen by more users.
We divide the development of Kwai Kwai into three main periods: 2018-2019 for the fast user outbreak period, 2019-2020 for the flow structural adjustment period + the commercial storage period, and 2020-2021 for the commercial liquidation acceleration period. We believe that the whole short video industry will face a traffic ceiling in 2021. With the successful campaign of the 2020 K3 campaign and the Kwai speed version of the double row single column, the fast hand has obtained a large volume of advertising traffic pool, laying a solid foundation for the commercialization of cash in 2021. At the same time, we will focus on the development of Kwai Kwai’s future in the field of electricity business, based on the special attributes of the exclusive user and the strong tie chain of the private flow of the main version.
We believe that Kwai’s short term revenue drive is driven by advertising, and advertising revenue is gradually improving. The two wheel drive with direct broadcast revenue will bring about an overall increase in gross margin and a substantial improvement in cash flow. In the long run, it is expected that e-commerce, games and other value-added services will become the core driving force of growth.
We expect that under the drive of live broadcast, advertising and electricity supplier, the scale of Kwai 2020-2023 revenue will reach 723/1000/1206/1428 billion respectively. With the increasing proportion of advertising business, the comprehensive gross profit rate is expected to continue to improve, while the user ceiling of short video industry is at the top, and the company’s marketing expense rate is expected to be greatly reduced by changing from traffic competition to refined operation. We expect the company’s net interest rate to be stable between 15% and 20%.
Company valuation: we use single user valuation P / Mau and PE methods. For single user valuation, considering the valuation level of comparable companies and single user revenue, the single user value of 2021-2023 is 865 / 1038 / 1245 yuan. Corresponding Kwai 2021-2023 MAU volume: 5.5/5.8/6.2 billion, 2021-2023 target market value: 475 billion 500 million yuan /6018 billion yuan /7719 billion yuan. PE valuation, with the increasing proportion of advertising business, it is expected that the comprehensive gross profit rate will continue to rise, while the user ceiling of short video industry will reach the top, and it is expected that the company’s marketing expense rate will be greatly reduced from traffic competition to refined operation. We expect the company to achieve steady-state profits as soon as 2022, and the net interest rate will be between 15% and 20%. We expect the net profit of 2022-2023 to be RMB 177 / 26.4 billion. Considering the valuation level of comparable companies, we give the target market value of 2022-2023 to be RMB 6177 / 794.2 billion.
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