Tourism economy

The new crown pandemic led to a loss of US $2.4 trillion in international tourism in 2021 From United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

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According to a report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, the collapse of international tourism caused by the new crown pandemic may cause a loss of more than US $4 trillion to the global GDP in 2020 and 2021.

The report jointly submitted with the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) said that due to the sharp decline in the number of international tourists, international tourism and its closely related industries suffered an estimated loss of $2.4 trillion in 2020.

Developing countries affected by vaccine inequity

Vaccination rates vary from country to country, with some below 1 per cent of the population and some above 60 per cent.

The asymmetry of vaccines has expanded the economic blow to tourism in developing countries, which may account for 60% of the loss of global GDP.

The loss is expected to be as high as $2.4 trillion in 2021

It is expected that the international tourism industry will rebound in the second half of this year, but compared with the level in 2019, the loss in 2021 is still between us $1.7 trillion and US $2.4 trillion.

The first figure predicted by the United Nations World Tourism Organization is that the number of international tourists will decrease by 75% based on the observed decrease in tourists in 2020.

In this case, the global tourism revenue decreased by US $948 billion, resulting in a loss of US $2.4 trillion in real GDP. This ratio varies widely among countries, ranging from one to three or four times.

International tourism accounts for 5% of Turkey’s GDP, and international tourists decreased by 69% in 2020, resulting in a decrease of $33 billion in Turkey’s tourism revenue, and losses in closely related industries such as food, beverage, retail trade, communication and transportation. The loss of tourism alone resulted in a loss of about 9% of real GDP.

The second situation reflects that the number of international tourists has decreased by 63%, which is a less pessimistic prediction of the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

The third scenario proposed by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development takes into account the changes in domestic and regional tourism in 2021. It is assumed that tourism in countries with low vaccination rates will be reduced by 75%, while tourism in countries with relatively high vaccination rates will be reduced by only 37%.

Unemployment rates by country

The decline in tourism has led to an average increase of 5.5% in the unemployment rate of unskilled labor force.

In developed and developing economies, the labor force accounts for about 30% of tourism service expenditure.

The loss was more serious than previously expected

Last July, the United Nations Conference on Trade and development estimated that if international tourism stagnated for 4-12 months, the global economy would lose $1.2-3.3 trillion, including indirect losses.

According to the data of the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the number of international tourists decreased by about 1 billion from January to December 2020, a decrease of 74%. In the first quarter of 2021, UNWTO data showed that the number of international tourists decreased by 88%.

Developing countries bear the brunt of the impact of the new crown on tourism. By 2020, their number of tourists will be reduced by 60% to 80%. More reading: UNCTAD: how heavy has the global tourism industry suffered since the global sustainable development goal investment trend monitoring epidemic in May 2021? WTTC: tourism is crucial to the economic recovery in the Asia Pacific region: WTTC: because of the impact of the epidemic on global tourism, the number of unemployed people or 50 million is unknown. 2019: disruptive experience, reshaping tourism (download): Ou Rui International: COVID-19 accelerated tourism industry innovation, Sojern:2020 tourism advertising Report: World Tourism Organization: global women’s participation in Tourism Industry Report Sojern:2019 Report sojern: 2019 Asia Pacific Tourism Marketing Advertising report Accenture: 2018 China Tourism insight report World Economic Forum: 2017 Global Tourism Competitiveness Report (387 pages) UNWTO: 180 million global international tourists will be reduced in Q1 2021 “survival in adversity”: the way to fight the “epidemic” of tourism (II) UNWTO: the number of international tourists will be reduced by more than 72% in 2020

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