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Analysis on the operation of tourism economy in the first quarter of 2021 and trend forecast for the first half of the year From China Academy of Tourism

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Recently, the China Academy of tourism research published the analysis of tourism economic operation in the first quarter of 2021 and the trend forecast for the first half of the year. In addition to the forecast that the number of domestic tourists will reach 1.722 billion in the first half of this year and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 1.28 trillion yuan, it is also stressed that the domestic tourism market will approach or return to the pre epidemic level on May 1.

Dr. Hu Yongjun, data analysis Institute of China Academy of tourism research, said that the domestic tourism market will approach or return to the pre epidemic level on May 1. Not only has the residents’ willingness to travel changed from “cautious” to “relatively cautious”, but the tourism market trend of steady recovery in the first quarter will continue, and the tourism market will fully recover in the second quarter. Tourism demand will continue to move in the direction of “low price and high volume”. In the second quarter, the willingness of residents to travel was 83.19%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.93% and a month on month increase of 1.02%. The tourism consumption psychology of urban and rural residents began to shift from cautious to positive. The willingness of suburban tourism and inter provincial tourism was 43.48% and 34.04% respectively. It is predicted that in the first half of this year, the number of domestic tourists will reach 1.722 billion, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 1.28 trillion yuan, which will return to 56% and 46% of the same period in 2019, respectively, but will increase by 85% and 102% compared with the same period in 2020.

Looking at the first quarter of 2021 alone, it is predicted that the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue will be about 697 million person times and 56 trillion yuan respectively, which will return to 39% and 32% of the same period in 2019, but also increase by 136% and 150% compared with the same period in 2020. Dr. Hu Yongjun pointed out that with the further recovery of consumer confidence, the further accumulation of industrial kinetic energy and the further deregulation of industrial policies, the basic set of upward recovery of tourism economy is more stable. In the first quarter of 2021, the tourism economic prosperity index reached 105.72, with a year-on-year and month on month increase of 36.8% and 20.4% respectively. It is stepping into the channel from “relative prosperity” to “prosperity”. It can be said that the orderly recovery of the tourism economy is irresistible, and the tourism market is picking up steadily.

From the perspective of the Spring Festival holiday, the average travel time of tourists is 1.64 days, and more than 90% of the tourists participate in cultural and leisure activities. At the same time, the recovery of tourism market in the main tourist sources is better than that in the main destinations. Among them, the number of residents and tourists in Guangdong, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Zhejiang, Hunan and Shaanxi is close to or more than that of the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019. The first tier cities and densely populated cities are better than those in Southwest China. On the other hand, the recovery of civil aviation exceeded expectations, with the business market bearing the brunt. The top ten domestic popular routes are business routes. Among them, Shenzhen and Shanghai become the most popular routes for passengers.

While “ice and snow Tour” and “cold Tour” are the key words of the season, urban leisure and rural vacation are hot, and red tourism is heating up. Not only do cultural and tourism products bring forth new products, such as ice and snow + recuperation, ice and snow + vacation, “snow moving north to South”, Beijing Zhangjiakou sports and cultural tourism, as well as in-depth experience space and theme cultural activities of local tourists, but also the confidence index of tourism entrepreneurs rises quarter by quarter, and the development confidence of cultural and tourism industries in various regions also rises steadily. In addition, the policy has relaxed the supply and demand of tourism in both directions. Red tourism, residence and leisure, ice and snow tourism, rural tourism and tourism investment and financing usher in favorable policies. For example, Jiangsu plans to invest 48.8 billion yuan in 2021 and Guizhou plans to invest 51.449 billion yuan in 2021. In the first half of 2021, the government’s public investment in transportation, infrastructure, scenic spots and blocks will be faster than the special investment in tourism.

Dr. Hu Yongjun suggested that we should pay close attention to the employment status of the front-line employees, strengthen market guidance, promote rational investment, seize the important nodes of May Day, guide the market to continue to recover healthily, and actively welcome the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party, focusing on promoting red tourism.

More reading: China Tourism Research Institute: 2019 tourism economic operation inventory China Tourism Research Institute & LinkedIn: 2017 global workplace inbound travel report China Tourism Research Institute: 2018 tourism economic operation inventory China Tourism Research Institute & Ctrip: 62.03 million Chinese outbound tourists in the first half of 2017 A year-on-year growth of 5% China Tourism Research Institute: in 2016, China’s total tourism revenue reached 469 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.6% China Tourism Research Institute: Night tourism market data report in 2019 China Tourism Research Institute: the number of Chinese outbound tourists in 2017 increased by 7% year-on-year & China Tourism Research Institute: North China Tourism Report in 2018 China Tourism Research Institute: China tourism economy Blue Book (NO.13 – Download attached) TripAdvisor: 2015 global tourism economic report Howard Johnson & China Tourism Research Institute: hotel investment analysis of key cities in Northeast and Northwest China in 2018 China Tourism Research Institute: 2016 China outbound tourism Tourism big data China Tourism Research Institute: 2017 “May 1” Tourism Report and popularity ranking China Tourism Research Institute: 2017 China outbound tourism development annual report

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