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The following is the NAND flash is still oversupply in the first quarter of 2021, with an estimated decline of 10-15% From TrendForce recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: TrendForce.
According to the semiconductor research office of trendforce, the total demand bits of NAND flash products in 2021 include client SSD (31%), enterprise SSD (20%), UFS and EMMC (41%) and NAND wafer (8%). Due to the number of suppliers far higher than DRAM and the high growth rate of supply bits, the price of NAND flash is expected to fall quarter by quarter in 2021. Looking forward to the first quarter of next year, given that Samsung, ymtc, SK Hynix and Intel are all more active in bit output, the oversupply of NAND flash will be more obvious. The quarterly growth rate of bit output will reach 6%, and the price is expected to fall by 10-15%.
PC OEM inventory level on the high side, estimated client SSD prices fall 10-15% in the quarter
From the perspective of demand, the demand trend of client SSD and PC DRAM is the same. Although the production of notebook computers declines in the first quarter of 2021 due to the influence of the off-season, what is different from DRAM is that the current inventory level of client SSD of PC OEM is on the high side, and the subsequent price is expected to continue to decline. Therefore, there is no need to prepare goods in advance to support the overall purchasing momentum. From the supply side, NAND flash manufacturers are still actively providing the latest 128 layer samples for testing. In addition, the second American manufacturer’s QLC SSD has also started to expand at the same time, making it difficult to change the situation of oversupply. It is estimated that the price of client SSD will fall by 10-15% in the first quarter of next year.
Price competition intensifies in the supply chain of PCIe, and it is estimated that the price of enterprise SSD will fall by 10-15% in the quarter
From the perspective of demand, the demand trend of enterprise SSD and server DRAM is the same. Influenced by the traditional off-season of brands, and the buyer of data center continues to de stock, the order volume of enterprise SSD in the first quarter of 2021 will be further revised compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, while ice Lake, the new generation of white Gen 2 platform of Intel, has not been in large volume. From the supply side, Samsung and Intel’s 128 / 144 layer PCIe G4 samples are under test; meanwhile, kioxia G4 products are also actively striving for more data center certification. With more suppliers joining the supply chain of PCIe, the price competition is becoming increasingly fierce. It is estimated that the price of enterprise SSD will fall by 10-15% in the first quarter of next year.
The price of EMMC and UFS fell by 5-10% in the quarter
From the perspective of demand, thanks to the active stocking of oppo, vivo and Xiaomi brands and the addition of new glory, the overall demand for EMMC and UFS products was supported. In addition, chromebook orders continue to be booming, which also supports the demand for low and medium capacity (32 / 64GB) EMMC. Although the overall market of NAND flash is still oversupply, the decline of this product category is expected to be lower than that of other categories. From the supply side, suppliers of EMMC below 32GB basically do not intend to update their products and stay in the older process. Therefore, the supply will continue to converge, indicating that the long-term price will be more supportive.
On the other hand, the upstream controllers manufactured by TSMC and UMC have insufficient capacity, which leads to suppliers’ tendency to provide high-capacity products to increase NAND flash consumption and further reduce the supply of low-capacity products. However, UFS is mainly used for capacity above 64GB. Currently, the supply of 92 / 96 layers is sufficient. The time point for suppliers to switch to 1XX layer or 1yy layer products mostly falls after the second quarter of 2021. Therefore, the overall price decline will be more convergent in the first quarter of next year. It is estimated that the price of EMMC and UFS will fall by 5-10% in the first quarter of next year.
In the first quarter of next year, the demand for memory card and UFD is hard to recover, and the price of NAND flash wafer will fall by nearly 15% in the quarter
From the perspective of demand, in the retail end of memory card and UFD sales, due to the festival demand and e-commerce promotion has passed, combined with the traditional off-season and epidemic situation, the terminal demand in the first quarter of 2021 shows no signs of recovery in the short term. From the supply side, as the main products are still in oversupply, and the remaining parts of some products, including controllers, are limited by the capacity of wafer foundry, all suppliers are under pressure to unload goods to the wafer market. In terms of manufacturing process, Samsung and Kaixia have started to sell 92 / 96 layers to module factories, while WDC and SK Hynix are more active. They have provided 112 and 128 layer samples for customers to import, which makes the supply continue to increase rapidly, and the price of wafer will drop by nearly 15% in the first quarter of next year.
Read more: trendforce: the revenue of NAND flash industry in the third quarter of 2020 will reach 14.5 billion US dollars, with a quarter on quarter increase of 0.3%. Trendforce: the market of new game machines will fill the gap of cloud demand, and the price fluctuation of NAND flash will be limited in the third quarter of 2020. Trendforce: the sales volume of NAND flash in the first quarter of 2020 will reach 13.6 billion US dollars. Trendforce: the revenue of NAND flash industry will reach 12.5 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2019 Trendforce: the revenue of NAND flash brands in Q2 of 2018 will increase by 3.5% on a quarterly basis. Trendforce: in the third quarter of 2019, the revenue of NAND flash manufacturers will reach about $11.9 billion. Trendforce: in 2020, Q3 global NAND flash market will reach $4.8 billion Trend force: Global DRAM output value in the third quarter of 2020 will reach 17.46 billion US dollars, and the total output value will increase by only 2% in the third quarter of 2020, 5.5 million units Annual growth of 23.1% trendforce: DRAM market is changing from generation to generation, 2021 will be the first year of ddr5. Trendforce: the annual growth rate of LCD shipment will reach 5.4% in 2020. After the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD will rise to the fourth largest IC design manufacturer in the world. Trendforce: the world’s top ten SD module factory brand ranking in 2019 trendforce: estimated global server shipment in the third quarter of 2020 4.9% quarterly decrease
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