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Shortage of upstream wafer OEM capacity NAND flash controller will rise by 15-20% From TrendForce

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According to a survey conducted by the semiconductor research office of trendforce Jibang consulting, limited by the full capacity of upstream TSMC and UMC wafer foundry plants and the shortage of downstream sealing and testing capacity, many NAND flash controller manufacturers, including Phison and silicon motion, are unable to meet the demand of customers. In addition to suspending the quotation for the demand of new orders, due to the key period of price negotiation in the first quarter of 2021, the price of these controllers will be adjusted by 15-20%.

In addition, from the supply side, thanks to the strong demand of chrome book and TV, the demand for low and medium capacity products (including 64GB and below) in EMMC has been boosted. However, most of the original manufacturers have stopped updating such products, only using 2D or 3D NAND’s 64 layer and other processes are more responsive than the old process, and the proportion of the old process in the original factory’s supply continues to decline. Under the consideration of profit, the willingness of the original factory to directly supply the NAND flash components and controllers is reduced, which makes customers need to obtain material from the module factories that can obtain NAND flash components and controllers.

The price rise of the controller makes the price of the module go up simultaneously, especially the products with the main capacity of 32 GB and 64 GB

Although the overall NAND flash market is still in the state of oversupply, the controller capacity shortage makes the supply of low and medium capacity short. The price increase of this component may lead to the increase of fixed cost, and the purchasing end such as OEM will also generate pressure, which may lead to the price increase of some capacity products (such as 32 / 64GB required by chrome book) in the first quarter of 2021.

In terms of SSD products, Samsung and other original factories are the main suppliers, most of which are in-house products. There is a long-term capacity arrangement with the wafer foundry. At present, there is no price increase or shortage. However, trendforce Jibang consulting also observed that the delivery period was prolonged. In addition, the proportion of outsourcing manufacturers in the pci4.0 generation products has a trend to increase, which means that the future price trend will be affected by outsourcing manufacturers.

Read more: trendforce: the revenue of NAND flash industry in the third quarter of 2020 will reach 14.5 billion US dollars, with a quarterly increase of 0.3%. Trendforce: the supply of NAND flash in the first quarter of 2021 still exceeds the demand, and the estimated quarterly decline is about 10-15%. Trendforce: new game machines come into the market to fill the gap of cloud demand, and the price fluctuation of NAND flash in the third quarter of 2020 is limited The shipping volume of flash (flash memory) reached 13.6 billion US dollars. Trendforce: the revenue of NAND flash industry in the fourth quarter of 2019 reached 12.5 billion US dollars, with a quarterly increase of 8.5%. Trendforce: the revenue of Q2 NAND flash brands in 2018 increased by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2019 Trend force: Samsung’s global NAND flash market will reach 4.8 billion US dollars in 2020 Trendforce: it is estimated that the quarterly decrease of global server shipment will expand to 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Trendforce: after the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD will become the fourth largest IC design manufacturer in the world. Trendforce: the total output value of DRAM in the third quarter of 2020 will reach 17.46 billion US dollars Total output value increases by only 2% trendforce: in 2021, limited wafer foundry capacity is in short supply, and it is estimated that new glory market will account for about 2%. Trendforce: TV panel price rises strongly, with an increase of 10% in August 55 inch and 32 inch. Trendforce: Global MacBook shipment is expected to reach 15.5 million units in 2021, with an annual growth of 23.1%

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