Summary of property market in 2020 From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute
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The following is the Summary of property market in 2020 From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy, research report.
Future prospects
Prospect 1: housing consumption upgrade, strong!
The biggest change since China’s reform and opening up is that with the development of economy and society, the stratum structure has also undergone an epoch-making transformation. The upgrading process of consumption shows the optimization process of social stratum structure. For different classes, consumption upgrading is a complex, gradient follow-up, heterogeneous subjective demand for a better life, the pursuit of characteristics of life improvement process. The great development of real estate is also inseparable from the upgrading of consumption.
Return to the consumption essence of housing. In the past two decades, the rapid development of real estate has achieved significant results, and the housing conditions of residents have been greatly improved. However, we must also see that the housing prices in some cities and regions are rising too fast, and real estate speculation has played an obvious obstacle to the steady and healthy development of the market. During the “fourteenth five year plan”, there is no speculation on housing We will persist in weakening the property of housing investment for a long time.
Pay attention to the upgrading of living quality. To promote the healthy development of housing consumption, on the one hand, it will increase the monitoring of the quality of newly-built commercial housing, improve the coverage level of housing industrialization, and increase the market share of fine decorated housing. At the same time, it will promote the multi-dimensional improvement of living standards, such as house type, energy saving and environmental protection, and community greening; on the other hand, it will increase the transformation of old residential areas, especially the installation of elevators and residential buildings There is more room for improvement in the two aspects of parking space transformation.
Multi dimensional to meet the housing needs of the population. On the basis of the supply of new commercial housing, we should vigorously promote the development of housing rental market, especially in ensuring the rapid growth of rental housing supply, at the same time, we should provide hierarchical and classified products to meet the needs of different population structure, different age groups and different occupational groups. In addition, we will develop more products in the fields of pension, tourism and vacation.
Prospect 2: national regulation “Changsha”? Soon!
There are two prerequisites for Changsha to become a “top student”. One is to control the house price well. From the perspective of housing prices in second tier cities, the fluctuation of Changsha in recent years is obviously small, especially the rising range is well controlled, the supply and demand of the market is well balanced, and it does not provide any speculation soil for speculators; the second is that while the housing prices are well controlled, the economic development is excellent, breaking the so-called strange circle of relying on “land finance” for development in many cities, and setting up a no money market High housing prices, no high land prices, the development of the city can still have the typical color.
For other cities, Changsha still has a lot to learn from, including the strength of regulation and control, the strength of eradicating the soil policy of real estate speculation, and the supply level of not manufacturing the market. However, it is worth noting that, because the differences between cities are objective facts, learning from Changsha does not mean following the Changsha model completely, but should be combined with the characteristics of the city to carry out precise regulation and control and implement a long-term mechanism.
Prospect 3: is there any new signal for future property market regulation? Very accurate!
By the end of 2020, some provinces and cities, including Xi’an, Chengdu and Jiangxi, have issued policies to regulate the real estate market. The policy’s delicacy and accuracy have been significantly improved, and the following three obvious signals have been released:
Signal 1: the degree of differentiation and delicacy of policies has increased, especially in Xi’an and Chengdu. Chengdu divides the people who buy houses into three categories: families without houses, households with monetized resettlement of shed reform and ordinary families who buy houses, while the lottery policy is obviously biased towards the first two categories; Xi’an expands the policies for the first and second sets, and differentiates the financial policies of down payment and loans. The signal of ensuring the first set of rigid demand, controlling the demand for two or more sets and cracking down on investment is very obvious.
Signal 2: take the house price as the anchor, and adjust the policy in time once there are signs of rapid rise, which has been clearly reflected in Shenzhen, Xi’an, Yinchuan and other cities this year. The background of Xi’an’s policy in November is that the house price will continue to rise in 2020. Among them, the price of new commercial housing will rise by 0.5% in October compared with September and 7.6% in October compared with last year. Second hand housing rose 0.3% month on month in October. The regulation of such hot cities may be strengthened in 2021.
Signal 3: to control the production of uncompleted projects from the source, Jiangxi has introduced measures to strengthen the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and all pre-sale funds should be deposited into the special account for supervision of pre-sale funds. It is expected that this policy will continue to be introduced in various places. By strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds, we can ensure that the pre-sale funds are given priority to the construction of commercial housing projects, effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers, and prevent the real estate market risks.
Prospect 4: relying on talent policy to promote the property market? It’s hard!
• Change 1: the action of robbing people in core cities is accelerating. If the threshold of robbing people policy in the past is lower in the third tier cities, the policy of core second tier cities is also increasing this year. Cities with strong ability to attract population, including Suzhou, Nanjing and Guangzhou, also give a “green light” on the path of relaxing robbing people policy. The posture of robbing people is not careless at all 。
Change 2: the marginal effect of talent policy is obviously decreasing. At present, except for Beijing and Shanghai, the relaxation of the policy is relatively weak. Almost all the other cities are in a “full fire” formation. When the talent settlement policy of each city becomes almost threshold free, the role of the policy itself will be greatly weakened, and the trend of population flow will return to the basic promotion of the city, that is, economic reality, industrialization ability and development potential Bigger cities are more attractive to the population.
Change 3: the impact on the property market began to differentiate. The impact of talent policy on the real estate market is mainly to achieve the growth of demand side by stimulating the inflow of population, but the attraction of different cities, especially the second tier cities, to the population is also very different. On the one hand, cities like Changsha, which have strict regulation and control, well controlled housing prices, but not weak economic growth, will attract more talents to settle down; on the other hand, cities like Changsha, which have good control over housing prices but not weak economic growth, will attract more talents to settle down Xiamen, a city with high second-hand house prices, will have a weak advantage in attracting people to settle down for a long time in the future. At the same time, there is differentiation in the first tier cities. The housing prices of beishangshen will accelerate the inflow of high-end talents, but also affect the entry of low-income talents to a certain extent.
Prospect 5: Leasing ushers in a new wave of development? It’s steady!
Leasing will become the focus of future development. For the housing needs of a large number of new citizens and young people, we should increase the supply of rental housing in the future. On the one hand, the number of enterprises participating in the leasing industry will increase in the future, and the supply of rental housing and land will be enhanced to meet the growing demand for leasing; on the other hand, the government will further strengthen the importance of the leasing industry, continue to give financial and tax support, and strengthen the capital supervision and rent supervision of long-term rental apartments.
From the perspective of specific policy direction, land supply should be inclined to the construction of rental housing, separate the land use plan for rental housing, explore the use of collective construction land and idle land owned by enterprises and institutions to build rental housing, and require both state-owned and private enterprises to play a functional role. For the long-term rental apartment industry, it is “rectifying the rental market order and standardizing market behavior”.
Prospect 6: will the financing pressure of real estate enterprises continue to increase? That’s right!
The overall financing environment in China is expected to be relatively loose, but the tight financing situation of real estate enterprises will not change. The short-term debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises in 2021 is not less than that in 2020. It is worth noting that the domestic financing cost of real estate enterprises has been rising since August this year, and the overseas financing interest rate has been rising. Many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises and their debt level is high, and the overseas bond coupon rate of real estate enterprises is as high as 10%. On the one hand, real estate enterprises need to “borrow the new to repay the old”, on the other hand, the increase of channel costs and land and construction costs lead to the erosion of profits, which will promote the financing demand of real estate enterprises.
The control standards for the “three red lines” of real estate enterprises will be further clarified, and the implementation will be further strengthened. While focusing on supervising the illegal financing of real estate enterprises and providing financial convenience to real estate enterprises by financing institutions, the requirements for reducing debt and leverage of real estate enterprises will become clearer, especially for the top scale high debt real estate enterprises, which will become the key control objects.
The proportion of equity financing will increase significantly. It is difficult for the scale of domestic and foreign debt of real estate enterprises to increase significantly again. It is more common for real estate enterprises to speed up the de stocking speed and introduce strategic investors through cooperation and opening up. It is worth noting that in order to ensure the enterprises to develop according to the original pace, while reducing the debt, the real estate enterprises will turn to the capital market for more equity financing, so as to ensure the project development and construction and land acquisition.
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