Large display panel From Summary of display panel industry in 2021 and outlook for 2022 (Part I)
The following is the Large display panel From Summary of display panel industry in 2021 and outlook for 2022 (Part I) recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Hardware equipment industry.
main points
Omdia expects that the oversupply of TV panels will continue in 2022, but it will reverse in the second quarter. As the panel price may fall to the bottom in the first quarter of 2022, the panel demand will increase from the second quarter of 2022 due to the promotion and sales of FIFA World Cup; In addition, when the component bottleneck occurs again, the panel demand will also recover, resulting in shortage.
Several factors will worsen the problem of panel oversupply in 2022 until demand elasticity is reached again. The new capacity of China, the reduction of panel demand after COVID-19, the shortage of non panel parts and logistics problems may lead to a two digit decline in the first half of 2022.
In 2022, Samsung display plans to produce more than 1 million QD OLED TV panels, while LG display plans to produce more than 10 million wold TV panels.
COVID-19 has caused serious fluctuations in the display panel industry this year. With the arrival of the end of 2021, omdia reviewed the display industry in 2021 and predicted the situation in 2022.
The following is a review of various topics related to the large-size display panel industry.
TV panel supply and demand
2021: area based demand is expected to grow by 6%, but according to the model, capacity growth will exceed 11%. Demand fell sharply, especially in the third quarter of 2021, and the excess rate of large-size display panels rose to more than 10%, resulting in oversupply in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.
Outlook for 2022: omdia expects that there will be a continuous oversupply of panels in 2022. As the panel price may drop in the first quarter of 2022, from the second quarter of 2022, due to the promotion and sales of FIFA World Cup, the panel demand will increase and the TV panel price will gradually rebound; When the component bottleneck is alleviated, the panel demand will also recover. Panel pricing strategy and demand elasticity will be crucial in the first quarter of 2022 – panel manufacturers must determine the extent of price reduction to stimulate demand again. At the same time, as the demand for TV will change dramatically in the post epidemic era, the price of TV panel may appear twice a year with the change of supply and demand.
Capacity transfer and structural adjustment
2021: many panel suppliers are changing their TV capacity to it capacity, especially in the eighth generation line and smaller factories, because of the stronger demand for it panels. Huaxing optoelectronics also began to change the capacity of its Suzhou plant acquired from Samsung display to it capacity.
Outlook for 2022: more panel manufacturers plan to transfer the additional LTPS TFT LCD capacity in their generation 5.5 and generation 6 plants to the production of on-board display panels and notebook computer panels. Chinese panel manufacturers have transferred the production capacity of a-Si TFT LCD to the production of notebook computer panels in the factories of generation 8.5 and generation 8.6. With the increase of LTPS TFT LCD capacity of generation 5.5 and generation 6 plants, the supply of notebook computer panels will increase in the next few years.
Panel pricing
2021: panel prices rose sharply in the first half of 2021, because panel manufacturers withdrew their panel demand in the case of shortage of components; Therefore, the demand for panels fell sharply at that time. However, the reduction in panel demand and high retail prices caused by the relaxation of the blockade policy began to affect panel prices; TV panel prices declined sharply in the third quarter of 2021 and are expected to decline further in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Outlook for 2022: several factors will worsen the problem of panel oversupply in 2022 until demand elasticity is reached again. The new capacity of China, the reduction of panel demand after COVID-19, the shortage of non panel parts and logistics problems may lead to a sustained decline in the price of the panel in the first quarter of 2022. As the panel price may bottom in the first quarter of 2022, the panel demand will increase and the TV panel price will gradually rebound from the second quarter of 2022; Meanwhile, the bottleneck and shortage of components will continue to affect the panel price in 2022. As the demand for TV will change dramatically in the post epidemic era, the price of TV panel may appear twice a year with the change of supply and demand.
New OLED TV panel size
2021: LG display began to use MMG (multi model glass) process to produce 83 inch and 48 Inch OLED TV panels in its Guangzhou plant. Glass efficiency is better than 77 inch and 48 Inch OLED TV panels. LG display hopes to produce 80 inch OLED TV panels and enter the larger panel market to compete with LCD TV panels. BOE began to produce 100 inch LCD TV panels in the third quarter of 2021, and mass produced 110 inch LCD TV panels.
Outlook for 2022: LG display plans to produce 10 new 42 inch OLED TV panels in its pozhou plant. LG display will also develop single cut products of 31 inch, 45 inch and 97 inch OLED TV panels in 2022. Huike will also develop a 100 inch LCD TV panel.
4K / 8K resolution of TV panel
2021: due to the withdrawal of sports events and Samsung display from LCD TV business, Chinese panel manufacturers, such as Huaxing optoelectronics, BOE and Huike, have been producing more 8K TV panels. However, high TV panel prices have reduced the demand for 8K TV panels to an estimated 671000.
Outlook for 2022: Samsung Electronics plans to promote more 8K LCD TVs, with 8K panels provided by Chinese panel manufacturers. At present, panel manufacturers with 10.5 generation line factories are actively producing 8K TV panels. Omdia expects some Chinese panel manufacturers to produce 8K 60Hz panels in 2022 as a cheaper option.
LCD dominance of Chinese panel factories
2021: Huaxing optoelectronics began mass production in its second generation 10.5 line plant (T7) in the first quarter of 2021. Huike began mass production of its other generation 8.6 line plant (H5) in the second quarter of 2021. Samsung shows that it has planned to mass produce its QD OLED plant by the end of 2021. The area and capacity of all panel plants in China is about 230 million square miles, accounting for 61% of the global capacity.
Outlook for 2022: Chinese factories have the opportunity to expand their capacity; For example, Huike expanded its capacity to H2, H4 and H5 plants. After achieving 180000 pieces / month, BOE may further expand the capacity of its B17 plant with an additional capacity of 120000 pieces / month. The capacity of all panel plants in China is expected to account for about 65% of the global capacity.
OLED TV and QD OLED TV
2021: LG display has increased the capacity of its Guangzhou plant with the goal of increasing market capacity. Omdia predicts that the demand for OLED TV panels is 8 million. Samsung shows that it has planned to mass produce its first QD OLED factory and ship QD OLED TV panels in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Outlook for 2022: Samsung display plans to produce more than 1 million QD OLED TV panels, while LG display is ambitious and plans to produce more than 10 million wold TV panels. At present, Samsung Electronics, the best-selling TV brand, will purchase QD OLED and wold panels.
Profit margin of panel manufacturers
2021: at the end of 2020 and the first half of 2021, the inventory of panel suppliers is lower than normal. With the decrease of panel procurement, panel suppliers reduced glass investment and managed their inventory level in the second half of 2021 to prevent the free decline of panel price.
2022 Outlook: omdia expects panel demand to saturate in the first half of 2022. The utilization rate of panel plant in the first quarter may be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the decline of panel price will affect the profit margin. However, it is expected to recover gradually from the second quarter.
More reading: omdia: it is estimated that the global shipment of smart phone display panels will reach 1.4 billion in 2020, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Omdia: it is estimated that the sales of display panels of Chinese manufacturers will reach US $42.5 billion in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. Omdia: it is estimated that the annual shipment of smart phone display panels will be 1.444 billion in 2020. Omdia: OLED capacity will lead new investment in the field of flat panel display. Omdia: folding touch and cover Board development trend omdia: in the first quarter of 2021, 62.1 million LTPS LCDs were shipped to China’s major smartphone manufacturer IHS Markit: covid-19’s impact on the change of display panel demand omdia: analysis of the change of LCD cycle and demand elasticity between 2008 and 2022 omdia: it is expected that the shipment of 4K large-size display panels will reach 148 million in 2020. Omdia: 28nm will become a long node of semiconductor applications in the next five years Manufacturing process omdia: the supply of curved surface monitoring display panels will decrease sharply from 2021 omdia: the production capacity of AMOLED in China will increase significantly in 2021 omdia: in May 2020, the shipment of large-size panels increased by 16% month on month, reaching a new high of 74.93 million pieces in recent years omdia: in April 2020, the shipment of large-size panels reached 63.44 million pieces, down 2% month on month omdia: in March 2020, the shipment of large-size panels reached 64.4 million pieces 160000 pieces, up 28% month on month
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