Analysis of national passenger car market in May 2021 From Travel Association

The following is the Analysis of national passenger car market in May 2021 From Travel Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.

1. Review of national passenger car market in May 2021

Retail: in May 2021, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.623 million units, an increase of 1.0% compared with may 2020, and an increase of 3% compared with may 2019. The low base increment in previous months was basically eliminated this month.

Retail sales in May increased by 1.0% month on month compared with April, which is basically the same as the average monthly month on month growth over the years and in line with the seasonal law.

This year, the domestic economic trend is relatively stable, and the economy continues to face downward pressure of base recovery. However, the lag of overseas epidemic situation and other factors promote the export of manufacturing industry to maintain a strong year-on-year growth, which forms a good foundation support for the consumption of automobile market.

The new cars on the market before and after the Shanghai auto show and the “May Day” holiday warmed up the sales of automobile terminals, and the increase of holiday terminal orders was obvious. In May, the Ministry of Commerce jointly launched the consumption promotion month and various automobile promotion activities, which helped to boost the market.

In May, the epidemic situation in Guangzhou and other places in China was repeated, and the nationwide epidemic prevention and control measures were further upgraded, which made consumers pay more attention to the safety of travel and social interaction, and also indirectly promoted the car market.

From January to May this year, the total retail sales reached 8.364 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 38.1%, which is still at the historical high growth rate of the same period from January to May since 2011. The first reason for the super growth from January to May is the low base effect of the cumulative retail decline of 26% in the national passenger car market from January to may 2020. Secondly, the contribution of new energy vehicles to the growth is increasing, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10 percentage points from January to May.

In May, the retail sales of luxury cars reached 260000, with a year-on-year growth of 13% and a month on month growth of 2% compared with April. However, compared with may 2019, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 45%. Luxury cars continue to maintain a strong growth characteristics, reflecting the consumption upgrade of high-end replacement demand is still strong.

In May, the retail sales of self owned brands reached 600000, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, a month on-month growth of 3% compared with April, and a 12% growth compared with may 2019. The wholesale market share of independent brands was 40.2%, up 7.7% over the same period; And the domestic retail share was 36.4%, an increase of 4 percentage points year on year. After hard training and overcoming the pressure of chip shortage, the leading enterprises of independent brands have made significant progress in product, marketing, service and other aspects. Therefore, the brands of Chang’an, Hongqi, Chery and gac-e’an have increased significantly year on year.

In May, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 780000, up 3% year on year, 1% month on month, and 1% lower than that in May 2019. The retail share of Japanese brands in May was 23.4%, down 2.1 percentage points year on year. The retail market share of the U.S. Department reached 10.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6 percentage points, showing a good performance. German brand is still in the stage of adjustment.

Export: in May, the Federation exported 107000 passenger cars and CKD, a year-on-year increase of 250%. New energy vehicles accounted for 14% of the total exports. Among them, the export of independent brands reached 80000, with a year-on-year growth of 241%, and the export of joint venture brands reached 10000, with a year-on-year growth of 68%. The export of foreign brand Tesla made a great contribution to the increase of 11527. Overseas factory construction promotes CKD export of passenger cars. In May, Chery sold 6840 CKD cars, Great Wall 3639 and SAIC 1425. Other car companies still need to work hard.

Production: 1.576 million passenger cars were produced in May, a decrease of 2.6% compared with may 2020, in which the production of luxury brands increased by 9%, joint venture brands decreased by 22%, and independent brands increased by 26%. From January to may, 8.054 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 41.0% over 2020. The recent shortage of chips has affected the pace of production, but the major manufacturers have adapted to the tight days and adopted more flexible measures to stabilize production and sales. In particular, the independent brands strengthened the advantages of the supply chain, effectively solved the pressure of chip shortage, and achieved a good performance of 26% year-on-year growth in production in May.

The recent overseas epidemic situation is deteriorating, and the supply chain disasters are frequent, which will lead to further shortage of supply chain. At present, the supply of a few models is insufficient, the terminal has actually felt the supply constraints, and the terminal promotion resources begin to recycle. However, due to the fact that the inventory of dealers and secondary circulation links is still relatively sufficient, there is no obvious impact on retail.

Wholesale: in May, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 1.606 million, down 3.1% from April, down 2.1% from May last year, and up 4% from May 19. From January to may, the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 8.28 million vehicles, up 38.8% year on year, which was the same as that of the same period in 2019. Recently, the inventory assessment and restriction of manufacturers have declined.

Inventory: this year, the inventory was removed obviously. Some manufacturers cancelled the inventory assessment, and the inventory of manufacturers continued to drop to a low level in May. At the end of May, the inventory of manufacturers decreased by 30000 and that of channels decreased by 120000; From January to may in 2021, the inventory of manufacturers decreased by 210000 vehicles, which was larger than that of January to may in previous years, forming the feature of strong de inventory for four consecutive years.

The channel inventory from January to may in 2021 decreased by 510000 vehicles, which was significantly higher than the level of 290000 vehicles removed from inventory from January to may in 2020. With the shortage of chips in the upstream in the short term. At the level of terminal sales, there may be phenomena such as further promotion of de inventory and discount recovery.

New energy: in May, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 196000, with a month on month growth of 6.7% and a year-on-year growth of 174.2%, showing a good trend of strong growth. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 162000, with a year-on-year growth of 186.1%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 34000, with a year-on-year growth of 128.5%, accounting for 17%. In May, the sales of high-end models of electric vehicles increased strongly, while the trend of middle and low-end models was not strong. Among them, A00 wholesale sales volume reached 50000, accounting for 31% of pure electric; Class a electric vehicles accounted for 26% of pure electric vehicles, and the bottom rebounded; The number of B-class electric vehicles reached 47000, an increase of 17% compared with April, and the share of pure electric vehicles was 29%. In May, BYD’s sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 13420, with a 44% month on month growth, becoming a new bright spot of plug-in hybrid growth.

In May, the new energy passenger car market was diversified, the new energy performance of large groups was differentiated, and SAIC and GAC were relatively strong. The wholesale sales of 33463 Tesla China vehicles, 32131 BYD vehicles, 27757 SAIC GM Wuling vehicles and 11049 SAIC passenger vehicles exceeded 10000 vehicles.

In May, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 185000, up 177.2% year on year and 17.4% month on month. The enterprises with retail sales exceeding 10000 vehicles include SAIC GM Wuling 33175 vehicles, BYD 31908 vehicles, Tesla China 21936 vehicles and GAC EA 10395 vehicles.

In May, the export of new energy vehicles showed explosive growth. Tesla China exported 11527 vehicles, SAIC Passenger Car Exported 2430 vehicles, JAC exported 549 vehicles, BYD exported 223 vehicles, and Aichi exported 143 vehicles. The export of new energy vehicles of other automobile enterprises is also ready to develop.

In May, the sales volume of new forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Hezhong, ideal and Zero run were also excellent. Volkswagen brand new energy vehicles account for 48% of the mainstream joint venture brands. BBA luxury car company’s full production of pure electric vehicles, product acceptance still needs to be greatly improved. In May, 47000 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were wholesale, an increase of 81% over may last year, which was the same as that in April. The Japanese joint venture was slightly affected by chips.

The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 11.4% in May, and 9.4% from January to may, which was significantly higher than that of 5.8% in 2020. In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 24.7%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 10.8%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 1.7%.

From January to may, 857000 new energy passenger cars were wholesale, with a year-on-year growth of 253.3%. From January to may, 776000 new energy vehicles were sold, up 235.7% year on year.

2. Outlook of national passenger car market in June

There are 21 working days in the 30 natural days in June this year. The college entrance examination and the Dragon Boat Festival are at the beginning of the month, and the production and sales are relatively stable.

July 1 is the centenary of the founding of the party, and also a good time for the government to communicate with the people. With the relative stability of Sino US relations and the strong development of domestic economy, automobile market consumption is generally strong.

However, since June, the pressure of high base has been gradually reflected, and the expectation of slower growth has basically become the consensus of the industry. Due to the impact of the implementation of the sixth national standard on July 1, 19, the retail sales in June was on the high side, and the car market in June 20 basically returned to the normal seasonal level.

Due to the severe epidemic situation in India and other regions, the awareness of epidemic prevention and control in China is also increasing. It is expected that domestic self driving tour in summer and inter provincial tour on small and long holidays will still be the main ways of family tourism, so automobile life will be more active.

Due to the continuous de inventory, the inventory of dealers continues to decrease, and the overall inventory pressure has been effectively alleviated. Relying on the target incentive of business policy and the improvement of order maintenance quality, retail still maintains a good high level.

Although the passenger car market has entered the half year closing period, due to the continuous severe impact of the overseas epidemic, the chip shortage has not been significantly alleviated, and it is difficult for automobile enterprises to strive to boost sales. The safety and resilience of the supply chain may become a higher priority topic for automobile manufacturers in the third quarter of this year.

As the channel inventory continues to be low, it is difficult to effectively increase the promotion efforts, so the price promotion expectation of consumers’ car purchase is also reduced, and the hidden worry of price increase promotes the acceleration of car replacement, and the car replacement performance is strong.

3. The forecast sales volume of new energy passenger cars will be increased to 2.4 million this year

From January to May this year, the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicle market reached 860000, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5 times, showing a hot trend. In the second half of the last 20 years, the situation of continuous unilateral pull up has become a normal seasonal fluctuation law this year, which is also a good trend of market-oriented demand fluctuation.

The strong trend of new energy vehicles is the result of the continuous strength of the high and low-end market, especially the overall trend of the entry-level new energy vehicle market is stable, and there is no sharp decline beyond the normal trend, which is also the influence of market-oriented purchasing power. In the early stage, the A00 fuel vehicle market has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the current trend of new energy vehicles is better than expected.

The trend of high-end new energy vehicles continues to strengthen, reflecting the relatively strong momentum of high-end electric vehicles. The retail sales of independent mainstream new energy vehicles such as GAC EA, BYD and SAIC passenger cars continued to strengthen in May, indicating the gradual rise of the main market.

Although affected by the lack of chips and other issues, there is basically no significant loss in sales of new energy vehicles. The chip supply stability of independent brands is better than that of joint venture brands, which is also the reason why the chip consumption of new energy vehicles is large, but the growth is stronger.

Considering the promotion of new energy vehicle home and personal number release in Beijing in May, the demand for new energy vehicles will remain strong in the next few months.

In February, the Federation predicted that the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles would be 2 million, and in April, it would be increased to 2.2 million, doubling. The forecast value of 2.4 million vehicles is the comprehensive result of export increment of domestic market segments. In particular, the new products of new energy vehicles of traditional car companies have performed very well recently, such as gac-e’an and SAIC passenger cars, showing a strong trend, gradually showing the endogenous driving force of the continuous growth of the new energy market.

This year, the export performance of foreign capital and independent major vehicle enterprises is growing strongly, and the export of new forces is also ready to develop. Therefore, the export of 100000 new energy vehicles that should be added this year is expected to increase.

4. The three child policy is good for China’s auto market

The central government has decided to further optimize the fertility policy and implement the policy of one couple having three children and supporting measures. This is conducive to improving China’s population structure, implementing the national strategy of actively coping with population aging, and maintaining China’s human resource endowment advantage.

The three child policy is a major positive for the auto market, which is conducive to the growth of the 7-seat car market, especially the 7-seat SUV market. The promotion of the three child policy encourages rational childbirth and promotes the growth of family car use, which will certainly promote family car use. By the end of 2020, the Ministry of public security’s new policy of convenience for the people: include 7-9 seat non operating narrow passenger cars within six years into the six-year inspection exemption policy. We will promote the upgrading of some of the original five seat car groups into seven seat cars. In the short run, the three child policy will promote the sales of seven seat passenger cars, especially SUVs. In the long run, it will promote the change of fertility concept and the overall growth of family cars.

Since the opening of the two child policy in 2011, the two child policy in 2014 and the two child policy in 2016, the car market has achieved a good growth effect. The car market reached a peak of 2374 retail cars in 2017, and then began to decline gradually in 2018.

As the aging trend of China’s population structure is becoming more and more obvious, the direct incremental effect under the new three child policy may not be very prominent in the short term, but it is of great significance to restrain the decline of birth rate, stabilize the population structure, and change the concept of fertility and consumption.

China’s auto market has entered an era dominated by middle-aged consumers, and is gradually moving towards an auto market dominated by elderly consumers. Therefore, the introduction of the three child policy by the state will make the demand of auto market more diversified and users’ grasp of their own needs more mature, which is a good thing.

5. Electric vehicles in Europe and America

With the continuous strong growth of new energy vehicles in China and the development of new energy vehicles in Europe for 20 years, the US government recently proposed that in the next eight years, the US government will invest $174 billion to win back the electric vehicle market. The development of automobile industry in the United States is in line with the major trend change of the industry. We are happy to see that the United States has made greater development and progress. The last trump administration promoted the oil revolution and broke the theory of exhaustion of oil resources, but at the same time, it brought about the loss of opportunities for the development of electric vehicles. The policy transformation of new energy vehicles is an inevitable trend of the current administration of the United States.

The electric vehicle plan launched by Biden government can be roughly divided into three parts: the first part is consumer subsidies, the second part is the nationwide construction of charging piles, and the third part is to promote the electrification of school buses and buses. This is similar to China’s practice of promoting new energy around 2015.

The development of new energy vehicles in China has changed from policy driven to demand driven. The core of accelerating development in recent two years is the promotion of market-oriented new products. In the future, new energy promotion policies should be further strengthened.

It is suggested that in the future, we should continue to strengthen the promotion of double points, increase the construction of private charging piles, and promote C5 driving license, so as to further enhance the development space of new energy.

The first is to strengthen the incentive function of double points, and continue to strengthen the market driven development of new energy. If there is a sprint effect similar to that of Europe in 2020, China’s passenger cars are expected to increase by more than 2.2 million vehicles year on year this year, and the scale is expected to reach 2.5 million, with a penetration rate of more than 10%.

Secondly, we should strengthen the construction of charging piles and encourage the development of private piles and the upgrading of waste piles. With the development and Reform Commission and other policies to promote the charging facilities into the community, we should mobilize the enthusiasm of the power sector, reduce the resistance of the community, increase the investment in the charging infrastructure of the community, increase the charging space, and reduce the charging cost. There is a huge space for the popularization of electric vehicles in Chinese cities.

Expand the consumer groups of electric vehicles. With China’s entering the elderly society, we should speed up the establishment of C5 driver’s license, so that more middle-aged and elderly people can have a driver’s license to drive electric vehicles.

6. Cross country SUV develops new market

In the past 10 years, SUV has been the main driving force for the growth of passenger cars in China. However, the growth rate of SUV market is slowing down recently. It is urgent to explore new consumption growth points such as off-road SUV.

Recently, off-road SUVs have performed well. Great wall and other off-road SUVs have performed well. The retail sales of tank 300 reached 6090 in May, leading in the segment market. In fact, this is the re emergence of the original SUV segment market after shrinking. Behind the rise of cross-country SUV is the diversification of consumer demand in SUV market. The outbreak of off-road SUV products has boosted the brand power of some enterprises to achieve the strategic landing. At the same time, it has also filled the long-standing situation of the lack of off-road SUV products in the middle price range in the Chinese market and the current window period of high-end off-road SUV due to the emission upgrade, realizing the effective positioning of products.

With the display of consumption ability of middle-aged consumers in China, the characteristics of middle-aged consumption in China’s automobile market are relatively obvious. The recent high growth of luxury cars and the strong rise of new power electric cars are the embodiment of the better consumption ability of the middle-aged group.

The market share of middle-aged groups has increased significantly. The delay of young group’s car purchase age leads to the smaller scale of young group’s car purchase and the larger scale of middle-aged group, which brings the continuous power of consumption upgrading to the growth of car market.

To guide the consumption release of the middle-aged group, we need better product support. Therefore, to make a breakthrough in the independent brand, we should not only consider the trend of new luxury represented by brands such as red flag, but also see the rise of pickup and off-road SUV. These markets are new dance platforms for independent innovation.

More reading: Passenger Federation: national passenger car market analysis in October 2020 passenger Federation: national passenger car market analysis in July 2019 passenger Federation: national passenger car market analysis in April 2019 passenger Federation: national passenger car market analysis in March 2019 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in February 2020 China Automobile Circulation Association: national passenger car market analysis in November 2019 Car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: November 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: February 2021 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: March 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: August 2020 national passenger car market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: May 2020 national passenger car market analysis Market analysis China Automobile Circulation Association: June 2020 national passenger car market analysis passenger Federation: May Tesla new energy sales first, Weilai and other new forces become an important force in the new energy vehicle market passenger Federation: April 2020 national passenger car market in-depth analysis report passenger Federation: October 2020 national passenger car market in-depth analysis report

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