In depth report of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2021 From AVIC Securities
The following is the In depth report of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2021 From AVIC Securities recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Brokerage Report.
Frost & Sullivan data show that in 2019, the scale of China’s pharmaceutical market was about 1680.12 billion yuan, and traditional Chinese medicine accounted for 32.1% of China’s pharmaceutical market. However, the proportion in the drug circulation market structure shows a downward trend, especially the epidemic situation in 2020 has greatly squeezed the consumption and use of traditional Chinese medicine. As of July 31, 2021, there were 71 listed companies in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, accounting for 11.41% of the market value in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, showing a downward trend year by year since 2011. At the same time, considering the small number of newly approved new traditional Chinese medicine, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has entered the era of stock game. The market performance in the past year, five years and ten years shows that the short, medium and long-term listed companies of traditional Chinese medicine have shown a polarized structural market.
At present, China has 12807 kinds of traditional Chinese medicine resources, which can be divided into plants, animals and minerals according to the collection methods. Among them, there are 11146 kinds of plant traditional Chinese medicine, 1581 kinds of animal traditional Chinese medicine and 80 kinds of mineral traditional Chinese medicine. From top to bottom, the traditional Chinese medicine industry chain can be divided into three links: planting, manufacturing, production and sales of traditional Chinese medicine. According to the industrial form, it can be divided into traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, traditional Chinese patent medicine, traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, traditional Chinese medicine injections and traditional Chinese medicine health products. In 2019, the scale of Chinese herbal medicine market was 165.3 billion yuan, including 157.185 billion yuan of wholesale market and 8.115 billion yuan of retail market. In recent years, with the increase of demand and market price of traditional Chinese medicine, the overall market scale of traditional Chinese medicine shows a steady growth trend, and the market space is expected to be further improved in the future. Among them, the export amount was 1.177 billion yuan, rebounding from 2018. Traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces are the downstream of traditional Chinese medicine and the second largest market of traditional Chinese medicine industry in China. In 2019, the market scale of Chinese herbal pieces was 193.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.69%, and the growth trend was restored. As the largest category in China’s traditional Chinese medicine market, the market scale of Chinese patent medicine has increased steadily in recent years. In 2019, the market scale of Chinese patent medicine in China was 538.655 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.55%. It is expected that the market scale will reach 787.930 billion yuan in 2025. Among them, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules and traditional Chinese medicine injections show a rising and falling development trend. In addition, the market of traditional Chinese medicine health products has maintained a steady growth trend. In 2019, the market scale of traditional Chinese medicine health products in China was 97.450 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.47%.
The demand side data show that the aging population structure trend constructs the long-term demand foundation. Considering the income of urban and rural population, the proportion of medical and health care expenditure and the surplus of medical insurance fund, it is considered that the traditional Chinese medicine industry has a foundation for sustainable development.
The proportion of standard allocation in the traditional Chinese medicine industry increased first and then decreased, and the proportion of heavy holdings entered the downward channel. From 2011h to 2017, the industry standard allocation proportion of traditional Chinese medicine sector was in the leading position in the seven secondary sectors of medicine and biology for a long time. After 2017, the proportion of industry standard configuration has gradually dropped, and the proportion of standard configuration is now the fifth in the industry. The data from 2016h to 2021h show that the traditional Chinese medicine plate has been in a low allocation state for a long time, and the low allocation of 2021h plate is 3.35%, reaching a low point in recent five years.
The historical P / E quantile data show that the traditional Chinese medicine sector is currently at a low level. The current PE of traditional Chinese medicine is 32.12, at the quantile of 35.93%, the historical lowest PE is 17.29, the highest PE is 92.98, and the historical median PE is 35.04. At present, the overall quantile of the traditional Chinese medicine plate is at a relatively low level in history, which is lower than the historical median of the plate. In terms of price to book ratio, the traditional Chinese medicine sector is also underestimated. At present, the Pb of traditional Chinese medicine is 1.80, at the quantile of 28.83%, the lowest Pb in history is 1.80, the highest Pb is 7.4, and the median Pb in history is 3.87. The price to book ratio of traditional Chinese medicine is also at a relatively low level in history. Compared with a shares, the price earnings ratio premium ratio of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been in a significant downward channel since 2018.
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