Where is the way for financial services to the people? From Guosheng securities
The following is the Where is the way for financial services to the people? From Guosheng securities recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Brokerage Report, financial technology.
in recent years “Retail business” It has increasingly become the focus of the development of banks and other financial institutions “Resident” From the perspective of assets (wealth management business) and liabilities (retail loan business), combined with overseas development experience, comprehensively and systematically sort out the current industry status, calculate the future development space, and make forward-looking analysis and judgment “Financial services for the people” How will the business model and industry pattern evolve.
In the process of research, we are excited to find many interesting angles and conclusions. Here, briefly list the six most interesting topics that the market is most concerned about:
1. Portrait of residents – Chinese people “What do you look like?” ? In the first part, we first presented the “panorama” of Chinese people, and deeply studied the three aspects of residents’ income, where assets are invested and what characteristics of liabilities. We found many interesting conclusions, such as the debt growth rate of Chinese residents in the past few years (18.5%) > asset growth rate (12.2%) > income growth rate (8%) In addition, some wealth has been precipitated in the process of adding leverage; at the same time, the head effect (28 differentiation) is also obvious. The top 20% of residents account for 46.6% of income, 64.5% of household net assets and 72.5% of financial assets. In addition, we have set up several interesting “Column”, from “the richest group, where does wealth come from” Deeply understand the practical significance of the bank’s opening up all business lines and in-depth integration; and “How to view the warning line of 60% leverage ratio of residents” It deeply understands the necessity of risk management and control in consumer loans.
2. Development status and competition pattern of China’s wealth management industry? In 2020, the total scale of China’s financial products exceeded 213 trillion. We deeply analyzed several problems, such as which products developed better? What roles do banks, securities companies, insurance, funds, trusts and other financial institutions play in the industrial chain of the wealth management industry? What is the difference between business and profit model? What are the differences in license plate, customer base and business? In addition, we use a large table to sort out the current charging links and benefit distribution mechanism of various financial products, such as channel rate, management rate, transaction rate, etc.
stay “Column” Part, we discuss “Banks still occupy the C position of wealth management”; “What changes are taking place in the fund channel? Where will it go in the future?” From the perspective of charging mode to understand why financial institutions want to layout class C funds.
3. How did the U.S. wealth management industry break out? In the course of decades of development, what changes have taken place in business model and competition pattern?
We have studied a large number of original and official data and materials, and traced back to what happened in the United States during the outbreak of wealth management business from 1978 to 2000? Over the past 20 years, the risk financial assets of American residents have increased from less than 3 trillion to 28 trillion US dollars, and the business model and industry pattern have changed “Earth shaking” Changes in: the great development of pensions, the institutionalization of US stocks, the rise of investment advisory model, 20 old bulls in US stocks, commodity based debt based stock funds At the same time, we linked all factors and deeply analyzed the United States “Pension – stock market – Fund – new economy” How the forward cycle is formed.
Analyzing the development process of the U.S. fund industry is our hardest, most joyful and most rewarding stage. After more than 40 years of development, the American fund industry has experienced the competition of channel rate and management rate, and finally formed a “The whole people” Investment advisor model. In many aspects, the ongoing changes in China’s fund industry can be verified one by one. For example, reduce the subscription rate and arrange the collection of class C funds “Sales service fee” is exactly the same as the 12b-1 fee charged by the United States after the fierce competition of subscription rate. In terms of business model, it has gradually changed from earning basic transaction rate to “companion type” Service. What happens after the channel rate is fully competitive? When did the management rate begin to decrease? You can read pages 62-78 of our report. There are clear answers to these questions.
Finally, we must emphasize that although the comprehensive rate has decreased to a certain extent and the charging mode has changed in the fierce competition, if residents want to participate in the capital market and need professionals to provide financial services, they always need to pay the cost. Even in the very mature American market, the comprehensive rate of equity products can still reach the level of about 1.5%, and the equity market has great potential!
4. Why do we say that China’s wealth management is at an early stage “Tuyere”, what is the future development space? We first analyze the current macro factors from five angles and find that China is very similar to the early outbreak of wealth management in the United States and Japan in 1980. The per capita GDP exceeds 10000 US dollars, the population is aging, the quality of residents is improved, the interest rate is market-oriented and so on. These conditions will catalyze the outbreak of China’s wealth management industry. In addition, we calculated in detail the future development space and the growth rate of various types of products. A simple conclusion is: it is estimated that the financial assets of residents will reach 316 trillion in 2025, and the CAGR of large asset management products will reach 18.8%. See pages 40-47 for detailed analysis.
5. What is the debt burden of Chinese residents? Compared with overseas, why is it said that there is no outbreak “Systemic resident credit risk” Conditions? In the past few years, the debt of residents in China has increased rapidly. The leverage ratio, debt income ratio and asset liability ratio of residents have increased to 62.2%, 94% and 10.8% respectively, which have reached or exceeded the level of developed countries (it should be noted that in China’s personal loan structure, operating loans account for a relatively high proportion of 21.6%, which is more stable if such loans that can generate cash flow are excluded).
In addition, we reviewed the quality of consumer credit assets of residents in five representative countries and regions such as the United States and Taiwan during the financial crisis, and reviewed the card debt crisis in South Korea in 2002 and Taiwan in 2006. We came to a very interesting conclusion, that is, for the residents, due to the characteristics of small amount and dispersion, Although a major financial crisis will infect and lead to an increase in its non-performing rate, it will erupt only when it expands disorderly and grows savagely. In this part of the research, we can’t help but sigh how important the foresight and timeliness of supervision are.
6. How to view the development space of retail credit? In the study of residents’ debt burden, we also found an interesting phenomenon, that is, the increase of residents’ debt burden is not terrible, but it is rapid in the short term. Combined with the IMF’s data on the “warning line” of 60%, we roughly calculate the growth rate of retail loans for Chinese residents in the next five years “Desirable and safe growth” Or 10.5%. At the same time, under such a framework, combined with policy orientation, customer base and other factors, we calculated that the growth rates of mortgage loans, business loans and consumer credit in the next five years were 8.8%, 13.9% and 11.4% respectively. In addition, we also deeply analyzed the business characteristics of these three types of loans, as well as the roles of traditional financial institutions such as consumer finance companies, small loan companies and banks.
In addition to these six major issues, we conducted in-depth and systematic analysis on wealth management and retail credit business from many aspects such as business structure, market space, business model and competition pattern, and analyzed more detailed issues in the form of many columns, such as how commercial banks face the competition between goods base and debt base, how representative institutions serve high net worth customers What factors lead to the intensification of competition among U.S. wealth management banks and so on.
Investment suggestion: Generally speaking, China has stood on the “outlet” of the great development of wealth management. This business not only develops rapidly, but also has very high value for better serving the people and promoting business transformation. Banks, securities companies, funds and other financial institutions have great prospects in this field. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the future development space of financial institutions with good customer base, deep precipitation in the field of wealth management, obvious first mover advantage, high industry market share or good growth potential, such as China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank and Bank of Ningbo among commercial banks; Oriental Wealth, CICC, CITIC Securities, etc.
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