The global population shrinking trend has been suspended, and the birth rate in developed countries has rebounded to the pre epidemic level From Financial Times

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After a series of efforts by the authorities, the birth rate in developed countries, which fell sharply two years ago, is now suspended. According to an analysis by the financial times, at present, the birth population in developed countries has basically rebounded to the pre epidemic level. Experts said that this is partly because the stimulus policy has played a role in alleviating the economic impact caused by the crisis.

The global population shrinking trend is suspended: the birth rate in developed countries has rebounded to the pre epidemic level

After the popularity of COVID-19, the number of people born in developed countries began to drop sharply at the end of 2020. A survey by Ifop, a French polling company, shows that between the end of 2020 and the first half of 2021, France reported the lowest birth rate since records began. In addition, Italy’s birth rate in 2021 reached the lowest level since the founding of the country in 1861.

There are concerns that this will exacerbate the already red light population decline in these countries. Demographers generally believe that only when a couple has an average of 2.1 children can a country’s population maintain growth without immigration, but at present, the fertility rate in many developed countries is far lower than this level.

Similar scenes have been staged after the 1918 pandemic and economic depression and the 2008 financial crisis, but the analysis of relevant data shows that most developed countries will rebound rapidly.

In this regard, the United Nations points out that:

The short term decline in birth rate observed in many countries is consistent with other historical crises. But in COVID-19, these downward trends are more transient.

The rebound of the birth population in developed countries has become a key driving force

In late 2021, the birth rates of the United States, Australia, Israel and Northern Europe began to rebound and even exceeded the pre epidemic level at some times.

In England and Wales, the number of births in the first half of 2021 decreased by 5% compared with the same period in 2019. However, by the second half of the year, the birth rate had returned to the level in 2019. By the end of 2021, the number of births had increased for the first time since 2015.

Spain and Germany have witnessed similar trends. After experiencing a sharp decline in the birth population, Spain’s birth population in March and April 2021 exceeded the same period of the previous year. In Germany, there are more births in March 2021 than in any march in the previous 20 years.

In the United States, the Census Bureau observed that the number of births between December 2020 and February 2021 was at an abnormally low level, equivalent to 763 fewer newborn babies per day in December. Anne Morse, a demographer at the Bureau, said “this is likely to be the result of the new coronavirus pandemic”. However, by the second half of 2021, the birth population of the United States will be the same as that of the same period in 2019.

Citing the views of population experts and economists, the financial times pointed out that the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures launched by many governments in the first months of the pandemic are the key factors to help avoid the continuous decline of the birth rate.

Karoline Schmid, head of the fertility and population aging Department of the United Nations Department of economic and social affairs, said the stimulus had played a role in preventing a sharp decline in fertility by providing a buffer against economic uncertainty.

The world is on the verge of a natural decline in population. Experts: we will have to restructure society

Population experts said that the global fertility rate reached its peak in 1960, when an average of five children were born per woman, but since then the birth population has been in free fall. Therefore, after centuries of rapid population growth, the world is now on the verge of natural population decline.

According to the lancet paper published in 2020, the global population will reach a peak of 9.7 billion around 2064, and then fall to 8.7 billion by the end of this century. Among them, the population of Japan may fall from the peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million in 2100, and that of Italy will fall from 61 million to 28 million.

But low fertility will trigger a series of economic shocks, because fewer young people mean less labor force, which will affect the payment of taxes, pensions and health care.

Kate h Choi, director of the social inequality research center, said:

An economy with labor shortages may experience higher labor costs, lower productivity and lower living standards.

Christopher Murray, one of the authors of the lancet report, pointed out that the economic and social impact of the decline in fertility cannot be overemphasized.

He believes that:

We will have to restructure society.

Of course, Klaus prettner, an economics professor at the Vienna University of economics and business, believes that the decline in population does not mean the end of the world, which may increase the government’s investment in education.

Prettner emphasized:

When the fertility rate falls, the government has more resources for Education… Many of the negative economic impacts that a decline in fertility can bring can be compensated by the more productivity these children later generate in the labor market.

More reading from market information: The Lancet: research shows that the global fertility rate has decreased significantly. The harm of housemen not getting married: Japan will usher in an extremely aging future. NOAA: July 2019 was found to be the hottest month on record. National human resources and social security: the lowest wage standard across the country in 2019. Shanghai’s highest tuhu car raising: the 2018 online maintenance behavior report of Chinese auto users shows that 1 / 4 people suffer from PNAs, the international top publication of “low battery anxiety disorder”: people who love to make friends are more likely to live longer in China, Caixin Media & BBD: Yili consumption upgrading index report in May 2018 (with download) WTW: 2017 global welfare survey report (with download) yuanzhuo: insight into China’s daily chemical consumer goods industry (with download) freedom Research Institute: report on rent of graduates in 10 cities in 2021 nature: cancer cells carrying the same genome may show different behaviors! Imperial College London: naturally occurring hormones may provide better treatment for osteoporosis

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