Analysis of the national passenger car market in June 2022 From Passenger Association
The following is the Analysis of the national passenger car market in June 2022 From Passenger Association recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Automobile industry.
1. Review of national passenger car market in June
Retail sales: in June 2022, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1943000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6% and a month on month increase of 43.5%. The month on month growth rate of retail sales in June was at the highest historical value in the same period of nearly six years. From January to June, the total retail sales were 9.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 715000 units, of which 1.031 million units from March to May had a greater impact.
In June, the spread of COVID-19 throughout the country was effectively curbed, and 836 confirmed cases were reported in 25 provinces across the country in June, a decrease of 88% from 7042 cases in May. The continuous improvement of logistics and supply chain after the epidemic, the resilience of exports, the resumption of industry, and the superposition of positive policies have effectively promoted the growth of the car market. The entry and transaction of customers in 4S stores of dealers all over the country basically returned to normal. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars nationwide increased by 22.6% year-on-year, an improvement of 40 percentage points over the 17% decrease in May. The improvement was significant, and the measures to stabilize production and ensure supply gradually showed results. 4. The production capacity and demand delayed by the epidemic in May will be released in June, and some local subsidized consumption will expire at the end of June. In June, the car market promotion was further strengthened, and the mainstream car companies added preferential activities to make up for the sales loss caused by the epidemic in the early stage and hit the semi annual target.
In June, the retail sales of luxury cars was 310000, an increase of 26.0% year-on-year and 74.0% month on month. In the early stage, luxury car owner sales areas such as Beijing and Shanghai were greatly affected by the changes in the situation of epidemic prevention and control, and the recent improvement was obvious.
In June, the retail sales of self owned brands were 810000, with a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and a month on month increase of 31.0%. In June, the domestic retail share of independent brands was 42.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points; The cumulative share from January to June was 43.1%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points over the same period in 2021. In June, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 45.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year; From January to June, the cumulative share of independent brands was 48.0%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points over the same period in 2021. Independent enterprises have achieved significant growth in the new energy market, leading enterprises have performed well, and the brand shares of traditional automobile enterprises such as BYD, Chang’an, Geely and Chery have increased significantly. The production and sales growth of Shanghai auto enterprises is strong, which reflects the outstanding effect of stabilizing the industry and resuming production.
In June, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 820000, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a month on month increase of 47.0%. In June, the share of German brands was 22.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points. The retail market share of American brands reached 10.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points.
Export: in June, the export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) under the statistical caliber of the passenger Federation was 187000, with a year-on-year increase of 67.7% and a month on month increase of 1.8%. In June, new energy vehicles accounted for 13.4% of total exports. In June, the export of independent brands reached 157000, an increase of 81% year-on-year; Joint ventures and luxury brands exported 30000 vehicles, an increase of 15% year-on-year.
Production: in June, 2.2 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 45.6% and a month on month increase of 31.7%. Measures to ensure supply in the industrial chain were effective. Among them, the production of luxury brands increased by 36.0% year-on-year and 34.0% month on month; The production of joint venture brands increased by 41.0% year-on-year and 49.0% month on month; The production of independent brands increased by 54.0% year-on-year and 18.0% month on month. From January to June, the production of vehicle enterprises reached 10.222million, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year.
The shortage of imported parts affected by the epidemic has improved, and domestic parts system suppliers involved in the Yangtze River Delta have gradually resumed basic supply, promoting the rapid recovery of production throughout the country in June. Shanghai is the hub and core of the national automobile industry, and its position still needs to be further strengthened. Recently, the effect of ensuring supply and resuming production is good. Production in Changchun and Shanghai has increased significantly under the supply guarantee policy of the industrial chain.
Wholesale: in June, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 2.189 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3% and a month on month increase of 37.6%. Driven by the new energy market, the performance of some auto enterprises was significantly differentiated. From January to June, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers reached 10.172 million, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.
In June, the production and sales improved significantly on a month on month basis, forming a push type production and sales trend in which the manufacturer’s output was 11000 units higher than the wholesale and the manufacturer’s domestic wholesale was 246000 units higher than the retail. The growth of the manufacturer’s wholesale in May laid the foundation for the strong growth of retail in June.
Inventory: the inventory of manufacturers has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021. From January to June 2022, the cumulative replenishment was nearly 90000 (domestic wholesale retail), of which the inventory was replenished steadily from May to June. Since the policy of halving the purchase tax was implemented in June, manufacturers have made a great contribution to the increment of inventory since May. In June, the manufacturer’s inventory increased by 10000 units month on month, with a cumulative increase of 50000 units from January to June, while the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 270000 units from January to June 2021, and the manufacturer’s inventory improved significantly this year. In June, the channel inventory increased by 60000 units month on month, and the channel inventory increased by 40000 units from January to June, a sharp contrast with the decrease of 720000 units from January to June 2021.
Under the world epidemic, there is a serious shortage of goods. It is a rare achievement for China’s auto market inventory to return to a medium high level, laying a stable situation for exports and domestic sales. Due to the guarantee of inventory, the terminal retail in early June was significantly stronger under the promotion of policies, and the inventory of dealers was transformed into a strong retail increment.
New energy: in June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 571000, with a year-on-year increase of 141.4% and a month on month increase of 35.3%. Under the policy of halving vehicle purchase tax, new energy vehicles were not affected, and the month on month improvement exceeded expectations. From January to June, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.467 million, with a year-on-year increase of 122.9%. In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 532000, with a year-on-year increase of 130.8% and a month on month increase of 47.6%. From January to June, a “W-shaped” trend was formed. From January to June, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 2.248 million, an increase of 122.5% year-on-year.
In the new energy vehicle market, the improvement of supply and the expectation of rising oil prices have led to a hot market. The rising oil prices and the locking of electricity prices have driven the hot performance of electric vehicle orders. The month on month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in June was significantly promoted by policies. Various regions have introduced policies to encourage consumption, and some subsidies and consumer vouchers are first come, first served or until the end of June, further driving the booming car market in June.
1) Wholesale: in June, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 26.1%, which was 10.8 percentage points higher than the penetration rate of 15.3% in June 2021. In June, the penetration rate of self owned brand new energy vehicles was 45.0%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars is 27.5%; The penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles is only 4.8%. In June, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 452000, with a year-on-year increase of 131.1%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 119000, with a year-on-year increase of 191.1%. In June, the sales volume of class B electric vehicle models increased by 146.0% year-on-year and 81% month on month, accounting for 30.0% of the share of pure electric vehicles. The “dumbbell” structure of the pure electric market has been improved, including 122000 A00 wholesale sales, with a month on month increase of 15.0%, accounting for 27.0% of the pure electric market; A0 wholesale sales of 73000 vehicles, accounting for 16.0% of pure electric; Class a electric vehicles account for 24.0% of pure electric vehicles; The sales volume of class B electric vehicles is outstanding. In June, Tesla Model y wholesale 52557 units, Wuling Hongguang mini46249 units, ranking first two in overall passenger car sales.
2) Retail: the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June was 27.4%, which was 12.8 percentage points higher than the penetration rate of 14.6% in June 2021. In June, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 50.1%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles is 28.0%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 4.5%. From the perspective of monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of mainstream independent brand new energy vehicles in June was 61.1%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year; The share of joint venture brand new energy vehicles was 5.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points; The share of new forces was 16.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points; Tesla’s share was 14.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points.
3) Exports: 31000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in June. With the support of the resumption of work and production policy under the epidemic, the continuous improvement of the overseas recognition of new energy products made in China and the improvement of the service network, the market prospect is good. The export of new energy of SAIC passenger cars is 10861, the export of Dongfeng ejit is 5445, the export of Geely is 3157, the export of BYD new energy is 2177, the export of Tesla China is 968, the export of DPCA is 525, the export of JAC is 361, the export of Chery new energy is 283, the export of FAW Hongqi is 192, and the export of new forces is gradually started: Skyworth exports 181, Aichi 177, Nezha automobile and Weima automobile also began to increase export efforts.
4) Car companies: in June, the new energy passenger vehicle market hit a record high, and BYD’s pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidated the leading position of its own brand of new energy; The traditional auto companies represented by Chery group and GAC group performed relatively well in the new energy sector. With the launch of multi line products on the new energy route by independent vehicle enterprises, the market base continues to expand. There are 16 enterprises whose wholesale sales volume has exceeded 10000 vehicles (an increase of 3 on a month on month basis and 11 on a year-on-year basis), accounting for 85% of the total new energy passenger vehicles. Among them: BYD 133762, Tesla China 78906, SAIC GM Wuling 49450, Geely 29671, gac-e’an 24109, Chery 22783, SAIC 17985, Chang’an 16178, Xiaopeng 15295, SAIC Volkswagen 13241, Nezha 13157, ideal 13024, Weilai 12961, Great Wall 13917, FAW Volkswagen 12272 There are 11259 zero running cars.
5) New forces: in June, the sales volume of car enterprises of new forces such as Xiaopeng, Nezha, ideal, Weilai, zero race and Weima was generally strong year-on-year and month on month, especially the performance of Nezha and zero race in the second camp, which was also the advantage of the market segment circuit. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen has revived with blood, and 25513 new energy vehicles have been wholesale, accounting for 66% of the mainstream joint venture. Volkswagen’s firm electrification transformation strategy has achieved initial results. Other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be developed.
6) General hybrid: in June, the wholesale of ordinary hybrid passenger vehicles was 91239, an increase of 95% year-on-year and 58% month on month. Among them, there are 59759 Toyota cars, 21092 Honda cars, 3214 GAC passenger cars, 3170 Geely cars, 2263 Great Wall Motors and 1705 Dongfeng Nissan cars. The independent brand of hybrid power is gradually strengthening.
2. Prospect of the national passenger car market in July 2022
There are 21 working days in July, which is the same as that in June. At present, the peak of the domestic epidemic has passed, and the high-temperature holiday in the early epidemic has been taken full leave. At present, the resumption of work and production is in place quickly. The production capacity of passenger cars in July is very strong, and it is expected that the production and sales will increase by about 20% year-on-year, which can achieve a good situation in the off-season.
From the supply side, the supply will basically return to normal in July. Shanghai is the core hub of national automobile manufacturing. The impact of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta in early July is small. Combined with the accumulated experience of the automobile industry in the previous epidemic, the national automobile production capacity is expected to be fully released.
In the past two years, projects close to nature, such as RV camping, have become increasingly popular. With the policy of halving the car purchase tax, buying and upgrading more powerful fuel vehicles is the best pre work for self drive travel. Therefore, the fuel vehicle market from June to July is very popular. The high cost of driving fuel vehicles is mainly due to the huge amount of taxes paid to the country, and it is also the great contribution of owners to the economy with practical actions. The advantages of new energy vehicles in adapting to the local suburban camping mode are also widely recognized by car owners.
The effect of the policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax was more prominent in June in the early stage of the policy launch, and then entered the middle stage of the stable policy implementation. The effect of the policy on stimulating consumption was weaker than that in the early stage. Superimposed on the market off-season in July, the year-on-year growth rate in July was slower than that in June. The effectiveness of the policy should be further reflected in the late implementation of the policy starting at the end of September. At present, the car market promotion is still at a high level. In recent months, the car market promotion has been gradually increased, and consumers’ sense of urgency to buy cars is not strong. However, with the expiration of some local incentive policies, the transaction price of models under high cost pressure has stabilized, and may enter the promotion contraction period around September as usual. The sales volume before the policy exit continues to rise, pushing the promotion to further reduce. Therefore, July is the best time to buy a car.
3. Policies promote the car market to soar in June than expected
The car market sales volume data in June exceeded expectations and soared: in June 2022, the retail sales of the passenger car market reached 1943000 units, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year and 43.5% month on month. The retail sales growth rate in June was at the highest historical value in the same period of nearly six years. In June, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 2.189 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3% and a month on month increase of 37.6%. Driven by the new energy market, the performance of some auto enterprises was significantly differentiated. From January to June, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers reached 10.172 million, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.
The reason for the super strong growth of the market is mainly the combination effect of the auto market’s own factors and policy drive, and the core factor is policy awesome.
At the end of 2021, the total ownership of passenger cars in China’s auto market is estimated to be 256 million, and the ownership of 1000 people is only 183. The ownership level of passenger cars is still low, which has better growth space and the basis for stimulating consumption. In 2017, the sales volume of China’s passenger car market has reached 24.22 million, but only 21.1 million in 2021. At present, the sales volume of the market is at a low ebb, while a large number of car buyers in the early stage gradually enter the replacement cycle, and the potential market demand is relatively strong. Recently, China’s new energy vehicle market has shown an explosive growth trend, and the market performance of pure electric vehicles is very strong, especially the A00 electric vehicle is a pure incremental market. The strength of new energy in June has brought huge incremental contributions.
The central government’s policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax in the traditional fuel vehicle market is awesome. Compared with the vehicle purchase tax reduction policies in 2009 and 2015, this policy has a wider scope of implementation and greater benefits. In terms of the scope of implementation, the first two policies are aimed at passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less, and this time it is specified that it is 2.0 liters or less, so that more than 10 million passenger cars will enjoy the preferential policies. In mid May, we estimated that the retail sales volume of the passenger car Association in 2022 would be 19million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Through the implementation of many new policies such as purchase tax incentives, and through seven months of consumption promotion efforts, we will promote the domestic retail sales to reach 21million units throughout the year. More than 10 million passenger cars will enjoy the policy preferences, and the increase in the policy is expected to reach about 2million units.
The local consumption promotion policy of the traditional fuel vehicle market is pragmatic. Since late May, local consumption promotion policies have been released on a large scale. More than 20 provinces and more than 40 cities have issued consumption promotion policies, including car purchase subsidies, old for new subsidies, new energy subsidies, consumption coupons, fuel cards and other consumption promotion policies. Some policies expire at the end of June. Therefore, the car market in June performed super well during the start-up period of halving the car purchase tax and the peak period of local consumption promotion.
4. New energy of traditional automobile enterprises is getting better
In recent months, the performance of new energy vehicles of mainstream independent car companies has become stronger and stronger. Among the top eight new energy passenger vehicle companies, except Tesla, they are all new energy vehicle brands of mainstream car companies. Compared with the weak performance of new energy of traditional car enterprises in the previous two years, the transformation effect of the coordinated development of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles of the main passenger car enterprises in June is very prominent.
At present, the new energy performance of mainstream passenger car enterprises is becoming stronger and stronger. The sales volume of new energy vehicles of most mainstream car enterprises has exceeded 20000 vehicles per month, forming a certain scale manufacturing advantage and performing very well. Recently, the reason for the gradual improvement of new energy in traditional automobile enterprises is the joint promotion of supply and demand.
From the demand side, first of all, the biggest advantage of new energy vehicles is the low use cost advantage when the purchase price is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles. The tax of electricity price relative to oil price is very little, and the A00 and A0 models with lower vehicle price have lowered the entry threshold from the purchase stage. The low holding cost of multiple amplification is an important basis for the strong growth of this segment market. The innovation of new energy vehicles in the intelligent interactive system has also gradually trained users to adapt to more comfortable use scenarios, so as to expand the use of vehicles as a third space. Secondly, female consumers have become the main buyers of economic electric vehicles. The best tool for daily travel such as commuting to work, picking up and dropping off from school, shopping and so on is economic electric vehicles. Third, the right of way advantages of new energy vehicles further promote the enthusiasm of new energy vehicles in cities with purchase and traffic restrictions. Fourth, the mainstream group has a large scale and strong purchasing power. Under the trend of common prosperity, the high income brought by the Internet foam gradually returns, and the purchasing power of the mainstream group is the largest blue ocean. Therefore, the new energy development of mainstream enterprises is stronger, and the single product sales of A00 and A0 economic electric vehicle market are also higher.
From the supply side: 1. The manufacturers of small and micro electric vehicles are mainly endorsed by independent brands with strong production capacity, such as SAIC GM Wuling, Chery Automobile and Chang’an automobile. The industrial advantages of manufacturing micro electric vehicles are obvious. 2. Traditional car companies have strong industrial innovation ability, and BYD’s breakthrough in plug-in hybrid technology has changed the declining characteristics of plug-in hybrid in one fell swoop and become a good brand pursued by consumers. 3. The original intention of the dual credit policy of new energy and fuel vehicles is designed for the transformation and upgrading of fuel vehicle products. Therefore, mainstream vehicle enterprises have high enthusiasm for developing new energy vehicles. 4. With the standardization of personal data and information security management, the development of intellectualization is also hovering at a high level. Consumers’ acceptance of the high cost of intelligent kits needs to be improved. Intellectualization has formed their own user preferences in driving safety and in car control, but the application of v2x technology in passenger cars has not yet formed a scale effect in the short term. 5. At present, the vast majority of commodities in society are not direct selling mode. The logistics mode of new energy vehicles does not reduce costs, but saves sales promotion costs and some silent costs of production forecasts. However, when sales are flat and slow-moving, these costs cannot be saved. The 4S channel mode of mainstream car enterprises still has tenacious vitality. The service of high-quality 4S stores is also limited to the internal brand and user word-of-mouth recommendation due to the volume of publicity, which can be described as “moistening things silently”. 6. Mainstream auto companies with independent brands have large capacity flexibility, which can support the rapid and sustained growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles.
5. In the first half of the year, China’s passenger car market performed well in the world
As the domestic car market experienced a serious decline from March to April, but the passenger car market stabilized in May, and the passenger car market exploded in June. Therefore, China’s car market achieved a certain repair in the first half of the year, with a good overall performance. From January to may 2022, there were only 30.99 million vehicles in the world, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, only slightly higher than the sales volume in 2020. From the current global data from January to may, the performance of China’s auto market is equal to that of the world’s auto market, and slightly higher than the overall growth rate of the world’s auto industry relying on the strong growth in June.
The main reason for this strong performance is that our domestic passenger car industry has obvious advantages. Under the influence of serious core shortage in the production of car markets in other parts of the world, the problem of core shortage in China’s car market is also very serious, but the Industrial Synergy ability of domestic car enterprises is strong, and chip production is more around China, so the advantage of origin determines that we can obtain chip resources from more channels. Through resource advantages, our car market has maintained a strong growth. The production of the passenger car association from January to May is still growing year-on-year, which also determines the resilience of China’s car market. Secondly, under the epidemic, public travel is more changed to private car travel. Under the background of high oil prices and high inflation in the world, consumers choose new energy vehicles more. Therefore, the advantages of China’s new energy industry have further changed into incremental advantages. In particular, the world share of China’s new energy vehicles has reached an ultra-high level of 59%. Third, China’s car market has strong consumption toughness. The policy of halving the car purchase tax in May to promote consumption brought a dramatic pulling effect to the car market in June. Therefore, China’s car market still has a strong world performance and its world share continues to increase.
6. The return of used cars to commodity attributes is a major positive
On June 22, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, which pointed out that we should further release the potential of automobile consumption, the first of which is to activate the second-hand car market and promote the renewal of automobile consumption. For small non operating used cars, the immigration restrictions will be completely lifted from August 1, and the transfer registration will be separately endorsed and issued with temporary number plates from October 1.
The executive meeting of the State Council will accelerate the effective implementation of relevant policies and drive the further growth of automobile consumption. From the perspective of the comprehensive effect of the policy, the complete elimination of the restrictions on the relocation of second-hand cars will greatly promote the liquidity of second-hand cars. The increase in the purchase price of second-hand cars during the “national five year plan” is conducive to the circulation of second-hand cars, which will enrich the source of cars in the second-hand car market, accelerate the process of second-hand cars replacing new cars, and have a promotional effect on the overall car market. The formation of a unified national market for second-hand car trading has greatly promoted the automobile circulation system, especially for automobile dealers.
In the future, we will implement the policy of second-hand car transfer registration and separate endorsement, so that second-hand cars can return to the commodity attribute. In this way, used cars, as commodities, are repaired and appreciated within the dealer system, and then brand sales within a dealer group are realized. As the sales process of the automobile dealer group is relatively simple, and the dealers have a certain quality assurance for their own brand of used cars, consumers can rest assured to replace and buy used cars, which is conducive to the circulation of used cars, improve the brand reputation of used cars, and accelerate the renewal of new cars.
7. China’s automobile export will surely rank first in the world
Since 2021, with the outbreak of the world COVID-19, China’s automobile industry chain has fully demonstrated its strong toughness, and China’s automobile export market has shown strong growth in the past two years. In 2021, the sales volume in the export market was 2.318 million, with a year-on-year increase of 102%. From January to may 2022, the export market sales volume was 1.08 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42%. From January to may, the average export price of automobiles was 16700 US dollars, up from 15300 US dollars last year, with an increase of 7.7%. However, due to the insufficient production of cars in other countries in the world, the finished car garages are seriously out of stock, the price of second-hand cars has soared, and the export of new and second-hand cars has decreased significantly. Especially from the U.S. data, the inventory of U.S. dealers was 2.74 million units at the end of 2020, while the total inventory of authorized dealers in the United States was 1.12 million units in 2021, a decrease of 59.1% from 2.74 million units at the end of December 2020.
China’s automobile industry chain has obvious advantages. Therefore, under the condition of ensuring domestic supply, the export performance is also very good, forming the characteristics of comprehensive and strong growth at home and abroad. At present, the lack of cores in the world’s cars has led to a low inventory of new cars and a sharp rise in the price of second-hand cars in the international market, which has a huge premium effect on the competitiveness of our new cars and raises the export competitiveness of our models.
Recently, the import volume from Japan and European and American countries to China is seriously insufficient, and the domestic traditional luxury cars can only sit by and watch the strong growth of China’s new energy. There is a shortage of cars around the world, which is a good time window for us to promote the export of used cars recently. The cost performance of China’s export of used cars has increased significantly.
The future is bright and the road is tortuous. At present, China’s automobile export is the embodiment of our comprehensive advantages, and has amplified the effect under the influence of the world epidemic. In the future, we still need to strengthen the product and service system to achieve sustainable growth. With the advantages of new energy vehicles, China’s automobile exports will surely grow into the first in the world.
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