Memory prices rose slightly by 3-8% in the third quarter of 2021 From TrendForce

The following is the Memory prices rose slightly by 3-8% in the third quarter of 2021 From TrendForce recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: TrendForce, Hardware equipment industry.

According to the latest survey of trendforce, the third quarter is the peak production season of all terminal products, which helps to further reduce DRAM’s efficiency ratio. However, as the buyer’s purchase of various electronic components increased significantly in the first half of this year, the overall DRAM inventory level was on the high side. It is estimated that the increase in DRAM contract price in the third quarter will converge to 3-8% from 18-23% in the previous quarter. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, trendforce Jibang consulting believes that as DRAM supply will continue to rise, it is estimated that the price increase will further converge, or it will cause pressure on price increase.

Capacity continues to be squeezed, PC DRAM price rises 3-8% in the quarter

From the demand side, the house economy effect makes the demand of pen and TV continuously prosperous. Although the problem of long and short materials is still existing, the manufacturers are still actively maximizing the production in the near future. However, as the PC DRAM inventory of the brand factory is still at the high level of 8-10 weeks, the buyer’s purchasing strategy will be more cautious. From the supply side, due to the continuous warming of server DRAM demand, the capacity of PC DRAM is still squeezed. Therefore, the original factory has a clear attitude towards the price increase of PC DRAM. It is expected that the difficulty and time of price negotiation between the supply and demand sides will increase in the third quarter, and the contract price will not be agreed until the end of July. However, what can be determined is that the supply and demand sides have a certain consensus on the price increase. It is estimated that the contract price will increase by 3-8% in the third quarter.

Purchasing side inventory is still high, and server DRAM’s growth rate converges to 5-10% in the third quarter

From the demand side, despite the slight growth in the delivery of server DRAM, the buyer’s momentum for the preparation of server DRAM is not as active as last quarter. At present, the inventory of cloud service providers in North America and China is more than 8 weeks, and the purchasing power will converge quarter by quarter in line with the market demand; Some tier 2 customers have not prepared enough inventory before, so they will continue to pull goods in the third quarter, which is favorable for the price to rise. From the supply side, the three original manufacturers are limited by the low inventory level of server DRAM, so they expect to maintain profits by increasing prices quarter by quarter. It is worth noting that, affected by the downward revision of demand for smart phone DRAM, the server industry has better bargaining space. Therefore, trendforce Jibang consulting believes that the bargaining time will be prolonged if the buyer and the seller do not reach a consensus. It is estimated that the quarterly rise of contract price in the third quarter is more likely to fall in the range of 5-10%.

Mobile DRAM rose by 5-15% in the quarter, which deviated from the market situation. I’m afraid that there will be no market for mobile DRAM

From the demand side, affected by the rising epidemic in Southeast Asia, smart phone brand factories mainly selling and producing in the region began to reduce their production targets in the second quarter, resulting in the increase of mobile DRAM inventory level of some brand factories. In addition, due to the over expansion of the brand production target and the tight supply of wafer foundry capacity, the situation of short and long parts is more obvious. Therefore, the brand will slow down the stocking pace to adjust the inventory pressure. From the supply side, the smartphone market has maintained a strong demand since the fourth quarter of last year, so the supply satisfaction rate of the three original manufacturers in this market is always better than that of other applications. With the stronger demand for other terminal applications and the better profit performance than mobile DRAM, the three original manufacturers gradually deploy production to balance the supply and demand performance of the overall market, As a result, the supply of mobile DRAM will be gradually reduced.

It is worth noting that Samsung, as the original DRAM manufacturer’s leader, advocates narrowing the profit gap of various products in terms of price. In addition, the company’s mobile DRAM growth in the first half of the year was less than that of micron. Therefore, in the atmosphere of weaker demand for mobile DRAM in the third quarter, Samsung’s increase will be more obvious than that of American manufacturers, which means that the change of Samsung’s increase is bound to affect other competitors to re formulate their price strategies, and the market increase will expand accordingly. It is estimated that the growth rate of mobile DRAM in the third quarter will further expand to 5-15%, and the price trend deviating from the market situation in the quarter may lead to further downward revision of demand, resulting in the situation of price without market.

Due to the tight supply of gddr6, the price of graphics DRAM increased by 8-13% in the quarter

From the demand side, previously, when the price of Ethernet currency was high, it attracted a large number of players to mine with old display cards. However, recently, with the weakening price of the virtual currency, it indirectly impacted the demand for graphics cards carrying gddr5, but mainly affected the spot market; In terms of contract market, more than 90% of applications in this field have been converted to gddr6 at the present stage. Under the condition that all new display cards are equipped with gddr6 and the demand momentum does not drop, this product is still very tight. In addition, at present, display card manufacturers and game console manufacturers still occupy most of the gddr6 sources of the original manufacturers, and further crowd out the graphics DRAM demand of small and medium-sized OEM and ODM. From the supply side, although the gddr6 production of the three original factories has accounted for more than 90% of the total graphics DRAM production, the demand is still significantly larger than the supply when the terminal demand is transferred to gddr6 synchronously. In the third quarter, with the server DRAM orders warming up, the original factories will still give priority to meet the mainstream market. Therefore, it is estimated that the contract price will rise by 8-13% in the third quarter.

Strong demand for consumer DRAM, up 13% in a single quarter

From the demand side, the overall consumer market and the demand for Netcom products are still stable. Coupled with China’s acceleration of 5g infrastructure construction and Wi Fi 6 conversion in the post epidemic era, the overall consumer DRAM pull momentum continues to be strong. From the supply side, with the improvement of consumer DRAM market, although the three original manufacturers have slowed down the speed of transferring mature DDR3 to CMOS image sensor or other logic IC products this year, in the medium and long term, it is still the general trend to eliminate the old 25 / 20nm process and continue to switch to the more advanced 1z and 1alpha nm. Therefore, with the supply of DDR3 gradually declining and the demand still relatively strong, it is expected that the price of DDR3 will increase by 8-13% in the third quarter; DDR4 increased by 3-8% with mainstream PC and server DRAM.

More reading: trendforce: in 2019, Q3, the top 10 global packaging and testing companies’ revenue is estimated to be US $6 billion, with an annual increase of 10.1%. Trendforce: it is estimated that the global laptop shipment will exceed 180 million in 2020. Trendforce: the server production will remain weak in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the server DRAM price will expand to 13% ~ 18%. Trendforce: the spot price of DRAM will rise for a long time, But there is still pressure on DRAM prices in the second half of the year. Trendforce: in the fourth quarter, the demand for ram is still in oversupply, The overall average price will drop by nearly 10% trendforce: it is estimated that the price of NAND flash will continue to rise in the third quarter of 2021, and the overall contract price will rise by 5-10% trendforce: the global DRAM output value will reach US $17.46 billion in the third quarter of 2020, and the total output value will increase by only 2% in the quarter, Annual growth of 5.5 million units: 23.1% trendforce: the average price of DRAM will stop falling and stabilize in the first quarter of 2021. Trendforce: it is estimated that the global wafer OEM output value will increase by 14% in the third quarter of 2020. Trendforce: in February 2021, the average price of the mainstream capacity of special DRAM will rise by nearly 7% trendforce: in the second quarter of 2021, the increase of DRAM will expand to 18-23% trendforce: it is estimated that the shipment of mobile phone lens will exceed 5 billion trendfs in 2021 Trend force: it is estimated that the global Smartphone Production will reach 1.36 billion in 2021, and Huawei will fall out of the top six in the world

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