Analysis and Prospect of China’s power demand from 2020 to 2025 From Cinda Securities
The following is the Analysis and Prospect of China’s power demand from 2020 to 2025 From Cinda Securities recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Brokerage Report, Industry 4.0, New infrastructure.
In the medium and long term demand outlook for China’s energy and coal released on December 14, 2021 and the medium and long term forecast for China’s energy and coal demand (II) released on February 15, 2022, we analyzed the logic of the annual rise of energy consumption elasticity (total energy consumption growth / real GDP growth) since the 13th five year plan and the trend of subsequent deduction, And split the pulling force of the upward elasticity of energy consumption in this round. From the perspective of China’s power consumption structure, this paper explains the continuous growth of power consumption in the whole society from 2020 to 2021, and forecasts and prospects the power demand of the whole society from 2022 to 2025 in combination with the calculation of specific emerging industries and residents’ domestic power consumption.
The increase of electricity contribution of emerging industries and the adjustment of electricity consumption structure are the main reasons for the higher than expected growth of electricity consumption. In the 2020-2021 year, under the influence of COVID-19, China’s economy was under pressure, while the total electricity consumption of the whole society continued to exceed expected growth in many dimensions, such as monthly, quarterly and annual. The elasticity of electricity consumption in 2020 and 2021 was 1.72 and 1.32 respectively. With the rapid development of industries with more high-tech content and core competitiveness, such as high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry, information transmission and Internet service industry, these industries not only have high economic added value, but also have the characteristics of high energy consumption and high power consumption. From 2019 to 2021, the marginal contribution rates of power consumption increment of six high energy consuming industries, high technology and equipment manufacturing industry, information transmission and Internet services were – 6.6%, 3.3% and 2.8% respectively (difference method: industry average incremental contribution rate – proportion of power consumption). Emerging industries have become one of the core forces of power consumption growth in the whole society, driving the upward elasticity coefficient of power consumption. With China’s economic development and the improvement of per capita GDP, residents’ domestic power consumption has increased rapidly. In 2021, residents’ domestic power consumption accounted for 14.1%, an increase of 0.5 PCT compared with 5 years ago and 2.2pct compared with 10 years ago. Household electricity itself contributes to the growth of electricity consumption without directly generating economic value. The increase of its proportion leads to a large deviation in the prediction of electricity consumption based on the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption.
From 2022 to 2025, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society is expected to be 5.5% – 6.5%. According to the analysis of emerging industries and residents’ domestic power consumption, and combined with the trend of China’s power consumption elasticity coefficient in the past 10 years, we predict that China’s power consumption elasticity coefficient will be 1-1.3 from 2022 to 2025. Under the assumption of GDP growth rate of 5% – 5.5%, the growth rate of the whole society’s power consumption is expected to be 5.5% – 6.5%, the growth center is 6%, and the whole society’s power consumption will be 10.30-10.69 trillion kwh in 2025.
In 2025, the power consumption of emerging industries will account for 19.7-20.5% of the power consumption of the whole society, and the average contribution rate of power consumption increment from 2021 to 2025 will reach 35.3% – 40.3%, contributing more than 50% of the power consumption increment together with residents’ life. Through the calculation of six emerging industries: communication base station, data center, charging and replacement service of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic industry, manufacturing of computers, communications and other electronic equipment, and electric furnace steel, we predict that by 2025, the proportion of power consumption will be 5.76%, 6.13%, 1.25%, 3.02%, 3.24% and 0.62% respectively, with a total of 20.02%, an increase of 5 pct compared with 2021 (15.1%), The contribution rate of average power consumption increment from 2021 to 2025 is 37.5% (6% power consumption growth assumption). It is estimated that in 2025, the household electricity consumption will account for 15.22%, an increase of 1.1 PCT compared with 2021 (14.1%), and the average incremental contribution rate will be 16.8% (6% electricity consumption growth assumption).
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