Tourist flow data in the first quarter of 2022 From China Tourism Research Institute

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China Tourism Research Institute (data center of the Ministry of culture and Tourism) and China Telecom tourism big data joint laboratory released the report of “tourism passenger flow data in the first quarter of 2022”, which was reported by Dr. Zeng Tian on behalf of the research group. The report mainly analyzes the market pattern, market recovery, tourist flow direction and trend forecast of tourism passenger flow data in the first quarter of 2022 [i]. The report finds that in the first quarter, first tier cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) and provincial capital cities (such as Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, Kunming, Guiyang, Xi’an and Hangzhou) have obvious advantages in the proportion of total tourists in China, The regional proportion of ice and snow tourism cities (such as Urumqi, Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang) is obvious. The surrounding cities of first tier cities and provincial capital cities are becoming important tourist source markets. The average recovery rate of inter provincial and inter city tourism in prefecture level cities is better than that of inbound tourists, and the recovery rate of intra provincial tourism and inflow is better than that of inter provincial tourism and inflow. It is expected that the tourist flow in May will reach the highest value in the first half of the year. The provinces around Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Shanghai, as well as Henan, Chongqing, Guangzhou and other tourist destinations still need to strengthen epidemic prevention and control.

1、 Market pattern

The surrounding cities of first tier cities and provincial capital cities are becoming an important source market. In the first quarter of 2022, the distribution characteristics of the proportion of inbound tourists in prefecture level cities are as follows: the proportion of tourists in urban agglomerations centered on first tier cities and some provincial cities and seasonal tourism popular cities is high, among which first tier cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) and provincial capital cities (such as Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, Kunming, Guiyang, Xi’an, Hangzhou, etc.) have obvious advantages, The proportion of ice and snow tourism cities (such as Urumqi, Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang) has obvious regional advantages (Figure 1). In the first quarter of 2022, the tourist source markets of important prefecture level cities are mainly distributed in the five provinces of North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan), the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu), southeast coastal cities and southwest provincial capital cities (Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming and Guiyang). Compared with the proportion of inbound tourists, the proportion of outbound tourists from first tier cities and provincial capital cities is not obvious. The surrounding cities around these cities are becoming an important source market. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the distribution of tourist flow in February is more concentrated. Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Hefei, as the main destinations, have a significant proportion of inbound tourists, while Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Beijing, as important tourist sources, perform prominently (Figure 2).

Figure 1 Distribution map of the proportion of inbound and outbound tourists in prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022

Figure 2. Distribution of the proportion of inbound and outbound tourists in prefecture level cities in February 2022

Figure 3 Tourism heat map of prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022

In the first quarter of 2022, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Haikou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Foshan, Wuhan and Beijing ranked the top ten cities in tourism popularity from high to low (Figure 3). Other cities with high heat in February include Xi’an, Chengdu, Guiyang, Hefei, Wuxi and Zigong. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the length of stay of tourists in February is higher than that in January and March, and the stay radius changes little. In the first quarter of 2022, the average stay time of foreign tourists is 60 hours, the average stay time of local tourists is less than 45 hours, the average travel radius of foreign tourists is 519 kilometers, and the average travel radius of local tourists is less than 351 kilometers (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Average length and radius of stay of tourists

In the first quarter, the average proportion of local tourists in prefecture level cities was 44%, and the average proportion of foreign tourists was 56%. Among them, cities with high proportion of local tourists are mainly distributed near the Hu Huanyong line, and prefecture level cities with high proportion of foreign tourists are mainly distributed in the northwest and Southeast (Fig. 5). For destination cities with a similar inflow of tourists, the more local tourists account for, the more active the local market is. However, the high proportion of local tourists may be due to the small number of foreign tourists, such as Qiqihar, Chifeng, Handan, Baoji and other places, while the high proportion of local tourists in cities with a high proportion in the country, such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Harbin, Guilin, Changchun, Zhangjiakou, Chengdu and so on, indicates that the local tourism market is active. The proportion of local tourists and foreign tourists reflects the impact of the epidemic on tourists’ behavior. During the epidemic, tourists tend to choose destinations with low population density and close distance. The population density of Northwest China is low and the local tourist market is small. During the epidemic period, it attracted more tourists from the eastern and central regions, resulting in an increase in the proportion of foreign tourists; The distance between cities in Southeast China is small, which is easy to attract tourists from adjacent prefecture level cities.

Figure 5 Proportion of local tourists and foreign tourists in prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022

2、 Recovery

In the first quarter, the recovery rate of inter city travel in prefecture level cities was better than that of inbound tourists, and the spatial scope of tourists’ travel was more scattered. Compared with 2019, the average recovery rate of inter city travel in prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022 was 49%. The recovery rate of inbound tourists in the first quarter was generally low. The recovery rate of more than 80% of prefecture level cities was less than 50%, and the national average recovery rate was about 30%. The best recovery is in some areas of Xinjiang and Tibet. A few cities in Jilin, Sichuan and Gansu have recovered to 50% – 75% in the same period in 2019 (Figure 6). Compared with the same period in 2021, most prefecture level cities in China have negative growth.

Figure 6 Recovery of foreign tourists in the first quarter of 2022

Figure 7 Recovery rate of inter provincial inflow and outflow of prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022

In the first quarter, the recovery rate of inter provincial tourism in prefecture level cities was also better than that of inbound tourists, and the recovery rate of intra provincial inflow and travel in prefecture level cities was better than that of inter provincial inflow and travel. In the first quarter of 2022, the average recovery rate of inter provincial travel in prefecture level cities was 31%, the average recovery rate of intra provincial travel was 38%, the average recovery rate of inbound tourists outside prefecture level cities was 26%, and the average recovery rate of intra provincial inflow was 35% (Figure 7).

3、 Tourist flow

The tourists arriving at the destination in the first quarter mainly came from important national tourist sources and surrounding prefecture level cities. This paper focuses on the distribution of main tourist sources in three hot cities and popular ice and snow tourism cities of Shanghai, Xiamen and Shenzhen, as well as the inflow and outflow characteristics of cities with high epidemic risk. As the three hottest cities in the first quarter, the distribution of tourist sources in Shanghai, Xiamen and Shenzhen are similar. Beijing is an important tourist source of the three cities, Henan is an important tourist source of Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the proportion of other tourist sources gradually decreases with the increase of distance (Fig. 8).

Figure 8 Distribution map of main tourist sources in cities with high heat and popular ice and snow tourism

Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao and Shanghai are important ice and snow tourist sources. Among the popular cities of ice and snow tourism in the first quarter, Urumqi has a relatively stronger spatial attraction and a wider range of tourist sources. Its main tourist source markets extend from the central and western regions to North China, and coincide with the main tourist source markets of ice and snow tourism in the Northeast in Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao and Shanghai (Fig. 9).

At present, the high-risk cities with the largest number of new cases of the epidemic are Shanghai, Changchun and Jilin. In April, the main tourist destinations exported by these three cities should strengthen epidemic prevention and control, including Heilongjiang, Jilin Province, Liaoning, provinces around Shanghai and Henan, Chongqing, Guangzhou and other places (Fig. 9).

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of passenger flow in medium and high risk cities

4、 Trend prediction

Compared with the historical trend, the monthly trend of inflow of prefecture level cities in the first quarter of 2022 is better related to the monthly trend of 2019. From the monthly change trend in the second quarter of 2019, the inflow will continue to decrease in April. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, the number of tourists reached a high value in May and fell in June (Figure 10). Combined with the actual situation in March 2022, there are new cases in many places in the country in the middle and late March, and the tourists’ travel in April will be affected and may show a downward trend. The increase in the number of tourists in May depends on whether the epidemic situation in many places can be effectively controlled.

Figure 10 Change of tourist flow in prefecture level cities from January to June

notes:

[i] Indicator Description: the report uses indicators such as the proportion of inbound tourists, the proportion of outbound tourists, tourism heat, the proportion of local and foreign tourists, the length of stay of tourists, travel radius, market recovery rate and so on. The proportion of inbound tourists is the proportion of the inbound tourists of the destination city to the total inbound tourists of the country, which reflects the popularity of the destination city. The proportion of outbound tourists is the proportion of outbound tourists from tourist source cities in the total outbound tourists of the country, which reflects the importance of tourist source cities in the national tourist source market. Tourism heat is the ratio of the number of tourists to the area of prefecture level cities, which indicates the number of tourists per unit area. The higher the heat, the denser the tourists, and the more likely the epidemic is to spread. The proportion of local tourists and foreign tourists reflects the source market structure of the destination city. The market recovery rate is the recovery rate of the first quarter of 2022 relative to the same period of 2019. More reading: China Tourism Research Institute: 2019 night tourism market data report China Tourism Research Institute & Ctrip: 3 million people visited Europe in the first half of 2019, with a per capita cost of 12000 yuan. China Tourism Research Institute: 2021 national tourism service quality survey China Tourism Research Institute: 2021 domestic tourism reservation data report China Tourism Research Institute: 2022 New Year’s Day holiday tourism market development report China Tourism Research Institute: China outbound tourism Annual report on tourism development 2021 China Tourism Research Institute: 2021 annual report on China’s domestic tourism development China Tourism Research Institute & massive engine: special report on cultural tourism in 2021 (download attached) China Tourism Research Institute: 2020 China ice and snow tourism development China Tourism Research Institute: 2019 China outbound tourism development annual report hornet’s Nest & China Tourism Research Institute: 2019 global free travel report China Tourism Research Institute: in 2018, China received 141 million inbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% China Tourism Research Institute & Google: Interpretation of 2019 China inbound tourists’ behavior and attitude analysis report China Tourism Research Institute & Google: 2019 China Inbound Tourism Analysis report on behavior and attitude of inbound tourists China Tourism Research Institute: 2019 China National Leisure Development Report

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