Building a strong population security defense line and promoting balanced population development From Mu Guangzong

The following is the Building a strong population security defense line and promoting balanced population development From Mu Guangzong recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Life data.

Since the country implemented the social plan of childbirth, the national birth rate has “fallen endlessly”, and now it has reached a new low. According to China Statistical Yearbook 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national birth rate in 2020 was 8.52 ‰, falling below 10 ‰ for the first time, while the natural population growth rate in the same period was only 1.45 ‰.

The data show that the natural growth rate in 2020 is less than 25% of that 10 years ago. Especially since the implementation of the two-child policy in 2016, the natural growth rate has decreased from 6.53 ‰ to 1.45 ‰. After 2017, the decline of the natural growth rate has accelerated. The birth rate dropped from 13.57 ‰ in 2016 to 8.52 ‰ in 2020. It is not too fast to describe it as a “cliff like decline”. According to the current development trend, the birth rate will continue to decline in 2021.

What does it mean that the birth rate falls below 1%? This data means that the negative population growth will come in advance and be close at hand (originally estimated after 2027), the general trend of population shrinkage, and the risk of low fertility – fewer children – aging – population structure imbalance will increase.

The decline in the number of births in recent years is inseparable from the decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Compared with 2010, the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 in China decreased by 57.49 million in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.75 million. At the same time, the number of fertile women aged 20-29 decreased by 34.63 million over the past 10 years, with an average annual decrease of 3.46 million. Low fertility – there is not only the drive of low fertility desire, but also the decrease of young women of childbearing age.

The birth rate falling below 1% for the first time is a major signal of the demographic transition. It shows that the shortage of young population reserves driven by low fertility and fewer children has become the norm, which may exacerbate the economic downturn.

The law of population development shows that once the population age structure is unbalanced, even large countries with large population will encounter the dilemma of “labor shortage”, and even the human shortage will affect all walks of life such as service industry from manufacturing industry, and the economic growth relying on human resources will be unsustainable.

Since 2012, China’s working age population has decreased by millions every year, with a cumulative decrease of more than 40 million. In 2017, China’s population increased by 7.37 million; In 2018, an increase of 5.3 million people; In 2019, an increase of 4.67 million; In 2020, only 2.04 million people will be added, and the population will shrink severely. It should be acknowledged that the population increase after 2017 is due to the release of the policy effectiveness of the second child liberalization.

In the past few decades, because the concept of total population control has occupied the absolute right to speak for a long time, the situation of fewer children has not aroused our due vigilance, so that it has evolved into a serious problem.

Looking back, it can be said that there are three important historical nodes: first, the total fertility rate (TFR) was lower than the replacement level for the first time in 1991, which was lower than 1.6 the next year, belonging to the population transformation type of “less before getting rich”; Second, according to the data of the fifth national census in 2000 (“five Census”), TfR is 1.22, lower than 1.5 or even 1.3, which belongs to the early maturing and low fertility population; Third, according to the big data of the Sixth National Census (“six Census”) in 2010, the TFR was only 1.18, lower than the “five Census”, which is the best time to adjust the population and fertility policy in time. To put it bluntly, the population with fewer children is not a secondary problem subordinate to the population aging, but a major problem with high independence.

In the 14 years from 1962 to 1975, China added 367.76 million new births, with an average of 26 million new births per year. From 1962 to 1997, the birth population exceeded 20 million in most years, including nearly 30 million in 1963; However, since 1998, China’s annual birth population has been less than 20 million, especially in 2020, the birth population is only 12 million, less than half of that in 1963. The birth rate reached 43.6 ‰ in 1963 and less than 1 / 5 of that in 1963 in 2020.

Severe oligomerization and rapid aging cause population polarization. Like a seesaw, it sinks and rises at one end, and the population age structure is seriously unbalanced, which is contrary to the ideal and goal of long-term balanced development of the population. Therefore, in a historical period, the data below 1% contains the risk meaning and early warning meaning of population structure imbalance. In fact, the population increase in 2020 is only a mere 2.04 million, which is insignificant compared with the total amount of 1.4 billion. China is close to the threshold of zero population growth.

Paying attention to population security is the due meaning of the concept of national overall security. Population security is an important dimension in the non-traditional security pedigree. It occupies a basic position and plays an important role in the overall national security. Population risk and population security are two sides of the same coin. Comte, the father of sociology and French thinker, said: population is destiny.

Summing up historical experience, it may be said that population, land and culture constitute the three elements of human civilization. Without people, there would be no population, and without population, there would be no evolution of civilization. Population security is the bottom line, red line and defense line for balanced, sustainable and high-quality population development. China should constantly improve the safety awareness or safety factor of population development, and firmly establish the safety, balance and optimization concept of population development.

Building a strong sense of population security, building a fertility friendly society and realizing long-term balanced population development are important conditions for national rejuvenation and national sustainable development. China should take the near replacement fertility rate (i.e. 1.8 ≤ TFR ≤ 2.5) as the basic goal of population rejuvenation, which is the need for the sustainable development of the population itself.

Needless to say, what we are observing now is an endogenous and voluntary ultra-low fertility rate. International experience shows that it is very difficult to boost and change low fertility willingness. China has missed the opportunity period of fertility adjustment. In the rapid market-oriented economic reform and social transformation, the fertility concept and lifestyle of the young generation have undergone fundamental changes. Today’s young people don’t want a child, let alone two or even three children – that’s just our wishful thinking.

It should be acknowledged that there are certain differences in China’s population fertility rate between urban and rural areas, regions, strata and nationalities. Therefore, we should focus on people with strong fertility will, give all-round fertility support, reduce the cost of three fertility (fertility, parenting and education), reduce the phenomenon of false low fertility (i.e. cost constrained low fertility), and screen out the population with great fertility potential. A small number of potential fertility groups may be hidden in the Chinese population at the bottom of society, such as remote areas or ethnic areas with low birth and development cost, and some are in small cities and towns.

The core of the population problem is the low fertility rate. In the low fertility era, China needs to rebuild a new fertility culture through fertility friendly policies and heavyweight systems. The fertility friendship between a country, government and society must be reflected in respecting the life significance and social value of fertility and respecting reproductive rights (that is, respecting the autonomy and diversity of fertility). Population Fertility Policies and systems should also highlight and defend the concept of people first, life first and rights first.

At the same time, efforts should also be made to improve the social welfare and service security of childbirth, so that reproductive justice and reproductive welfare can become visible and tangible welfare of the people’s livelihood, such as issuing maternity incentives and improving the childcare service system, protecting women’s rights and interests, so that they will not encounter any meaningful employment discrimination because of childbirth, and so on.

(by Mu Guangzong)   (Professor, Institute of population studies, Peking University)

China’s Chinese mainland China has 15 million 230 thousand people, the lowest in 2018. Lancet: the population of China is expected to decrease to 730 million in 2100. The United Nations: China has an average of 2.2 children per woman to maintain a stable fertility The Economist: China has reached its peak from 2010 to 2100, and the average Chinese population has reached 20 peaks in 2100. By 2100, the population will be reduced by 400 million. In addition to the largest population in the world, what else do you know about China’s population? United Nations: the world’s population will reach 11 billion NOAA in 2100: July 2019 was found to be the hottest month on record. National human resources and social security: the highest minimum wage standard in Shanghai in 2019. The survey shows that 1 / 4 people suffer from “low battery anxiety” tuhu car keeping: 2018 report on online maintenance behavior of Chinese automobile users. The international top of 60 square meters of housing cost in cities around the world PNAs: people who love to make friends are more likely to live a long life. In China, it is not enough to grasp only one Quan Jian. Caixin Media & BBD: Yili consumption upgrading index report in May 2018 (download attached)

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