It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 2 million in 2021 From China Automobile Industry Association

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The reporter of Securities Daily learned from the official of China automobile industry association that according to the ten day report of key enterprises, China Automobile Association estimated that in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry was estimated to be 12.801 million, an increase of 24.8% year on year; The sales volume of the automobile industry in June is estimated to be 1.926 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. The sales volume of passenger cars decreased by 14.9% and that of commercial vehicles by 20.8%.

“The impact of chip shortage in the second quarter was more serious than that in the first quarter. Some auto companies adjusted the production rhythm to a certain extent. Compared with the original planned production and sales volume, the actual production capacity in the second quarter may be reduced by about 10%.” Ye Shengji, chief engineer and Deputy Secretary General of CAAC, said that up to now, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s semiconductors is 15%, of which the self-sufficiency rate of automotive chips is less than 5%. Among them, MCU control chip is the most scarce. Due to the current automobile chip supply gap, recovery cycle and other information is not clear, chip distributors are hoarding and asking for prices.

At the same time, enterprises also choose to hoard a large number of goods, improve chip inventory, to resist future risks, further aggravating the current chip shortage dilemma. China Auto Association is optimistic that the shortage of auto chips will ease in the second half of this year.

However, the reporter noted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles has become a bright spot in the auto market, and it is expected to go against the trend and reach a new high this year. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the domestic new energy vehicle market is expected to grow by 46% in 2021. In this regard, Shi Jianhua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Association, believes that there is no problem that the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 2 million this year. The industry also generally believes that in the next few years, the growth rate of new energy vehicle industry will lead in the emerging industries, and the upstream and downstream companies of new energy vehicle industry will also usher in a new wave.

Shortage of chips leads to tight inventory of popular models

According to the May production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, in May this year, automobile production and sales fell for the first time in the year on a month and year-on-year basis. Automobile production and sales were 2.04 million and 2.218 million respectively, down 8.7% and 5.5% on a month on month basis, and 6.8% and 3.1% on a year-on-year basis.

China Automobile Association believes that the shortage of chips is one of the important reasons for the decline of automobile production and sales in May. Sina Financial columnist Lin Shi told reporters that with the recovery of the auto market, the rapid development of the auto industry has brought explosive demand. However, the capacity layout of the chip foundry on the vehicle specification chip can not keep up with the industry demand in time, resulting in the dislocation of supply and demand. And then the phenomenon of expediting, core grabbing and price rising occurred.

From the perspective of terminal sales, the impact of chip shortage is also very obvious. According to the reporter’s observation, at present, the inventory of some popular models is increasingly tight, such as FAW Volkswagen, Nissan and Ford models. The main impact is the reduction of the inventory depth of models and the narrowing of the sales gap of dealers. However, the narrower the high-end brands are, the smaller the narrower the middle end brands are.

In this regard, Li Xiang, the CEO of ideal automobile, told the Securities Daily that the chips in this round are out of stock, not the main chips, but the functional chips“ Chips like Qualcomm and horizon are not out of stock, because the entire capacity of advanced manufacturing process is well guaranteed. ” He added, however, that there will be a lot of inexpensive chips on a NOA controller, without which the entire controller will be unusable.

As for when the crisis will be lifted, as the chip shortage affects 169 industries, the industrial chain has a very wide impact. Various institutions and auto companies generally expect that the impact on the auto industry will last at least until 2022. Some suppliers even claim that the problem of insufficient supply of high-end chips will not be solved until 2023.

It should be pointed out that the chip crisis has made automobile enterprises deeply aware of the shortcomings of the current chip operation mode, and take this opportunity to develop new domestic partners with OEM capability.

It is reported that China’s domestic photoresist has been able to mass produce 55nm chips, and the 28nm industrial chain will be fully localized within 1-2 years. According to Lin Shi, with the increasing investment in the semiconductor industry in China, the time to complete complex chip design and pass the stringent asil-d security verification is shortened. If domestic chip companies can join the supplier system as soon as possible, it will be a huge development opportunity.

New energy vehicles enter the market stage

Different from the overall downward trend of the market, the momentum of new energy vehicles continued to rise this year. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in May this year, 217000 new energy vehicles were sold in China, up 159.7% year on year; In the first five months, the cumulative sales volume reached 950000, an increase of 224.2%. According to the latest forecast of China Automobile Association, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2 million and reach 2.4 million.

The overall domestic new energy vehicle market continued the trend of high growth. In this context, the new car making force also took the lead in publishing its report card in June: Weilai ranked first with the delivery volume of 8083 cars, ideal car ranked second with 7713 cars, and Xiaopeng car ranked third with the monthly delivery volume of 6565 cars, with a year-on-year growth of 116%, 321% and 617% respectively; Nezha and Zero run ranked fourth and fifth with 5138 and 3941.

In fact, in addition to the overall market factors, the promotion of new vehicle manufacturers in the distribution of channels and charging stations has also improved the conversion rate of new energy vehicles to a certain extent. In Shi Jianhua’s view, with the progress of new energy vehicle technology and the improvement of driving range, consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicle products is getting higher and higher, and the new energy vehicle market has entered a real market-oriented stage.

At the same time, under the advocacy of “carbon neutral” and “carbon peak”, the internal and external environment of new energy vehicle market is constantly optimizing and accelerating development. On the one hand, the industry’s various plans point out the exact development goals for the proportion of new energy vehicle sales by 2025; On the other hand, a series of national policies also provide more support and encouragement for the development of new energy vehicle market.

More reading from Securities Daily: EV sales: in the first half of 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world will exceed 1 million, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% EV sales: in March 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world will be ranked model 3 dominates China automobile industry Association: operation of automobile industry in May 2021 The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2.4 million in 2016. China Automobile Industry Association: as of May 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in China will be about 5.8 million, accounting for 50% of the total number of new energy vehicles in the world. National Information Center: in 2016, the proportion of private purchase of new energy vehicles in China will be only 24%. China Automobile Circulation Association: in January 2019, the number of new energy vehicles will be 100000 5.03 million degree lithium battery loading Wilson: analysis of new energy vehicle growth dynamics in 2017 China Automobile Circulation Association: automobile consumption will drop by 18% in March 2020 New energy vehicle output is 64000, down 44%. Weilai: nearly 10000 vehicles will be delivered in the second quarter. Gross profit turns positive. Baidu: 2021 new energy vehicle industry report (with download) trendforce: it is estimated that the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 4.35 million in 2021, with an annual growth rate of 49%. Tesla: 90000 vehicles will be delivered in 2q20, with a quarterly profit. Trendforce: the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 2.4 million in 2020, with an adverse growth rate of 1% 9.8%

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