The COVID-19 delta variant increased the group immune threshold to 80%-90% From ISDA

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A briefing released in August 3rd by the American Institute of infectious diseases (ISDA) showed that the spread of COVID-19’s variant Delta has increased the proportion of the population needed to achieve group immunity to 80% or even 90%, far higher than the 60% lowest threshold previously announced by the World Health Organization.

Delta variant leads to a significant increase in population immunity threshold

According to Bloomberg on August 3, Richard Franco, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said at the briefing meeting that the delta mutant strain was “a very dangerous virus, much more dangerous than the original strain.” Because its infectivity is twice that of the original species, the proportion of population required to achieve mass immunization is much higher than the previously estimated 60% – 70%, reaching 80%, or even close to 90%.

Richard Franco   Video screenshot

The so-called “mass immunization” refers to that when a certain proportion of the population obtains immunity through vaccination or previously infected with the virus, it can reduce the spread of the virus, so as to protect a wider range of people.

For the population proportion required to achieve mass immunization, the figure given by who in November last year was 60% – 70%; American infectious disease expert fudge changed his mouth several times. Last December, he raised the threshold from 60% – 70% to 70% – 90%; In July 31st, academician Zhong Nanshan delivered a speech in Guangzhou on the status and judgement of COVID-19. The latest research results showed that China vaccine still had protective effect on the delta strain, and 83.3% of the people needed vaccination before it was possible to establish group immunity.

American experts also agree that the vaccine has a protective effect on the delta variant. Fox News quoted Franco as saying on August 4 that although delta is more dangerous than the previous strain, most confirmed, hospitalized and dead cases are unvaccinated people, which means that the vaccine is still playing a role.

“The data show that vaccinated people are eight times less likely to be infected with the delta variant and 25 times less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated people,” Franco said. If hospitalized, novel coronavirus pneumonia is less likely to die of new pneumonia than 25 times the number of people who did not receive the vaccine. The more people are vaccinated, the stronger the protection of “mass immunization” for those who are not vaccinated.

He also added that the average age of patients in his hospital and other places is becoming younger than the peak of the epidemic. Some pediatric hospitals also reported that the number of children who do not meet the vaccination conditions is on the rise. In this regard, Ezekiel Emanuel of the Institute of health transformation at the University of Pennsylvania believes that this may be due to the high vaccination rate of the elderly, especially the elderly over the age of 65. When a large number of people are infected, even if the hospitalization rate and mortality rate are very low, the number will rise.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention, nearly 60% of Americans have received at least one dose of the new crown vaccine, and about 50% have been fully vaccinated, which may reach 165 million. Meanwhile, in the United States, about 35 million people in the United States tested positive for the new crown virus.

American infectious disease expert fudge once said that the reason why he mentioned the low number at the beginning was that many Americans were still wary of vaccines at that time. With opinion polls showing that Americans are less skeptical about the vaccine, he believes that it is time to release the “hard news”.

The viral load of delta variant cases was 1260 times that of original strain cases

Since it was first discovered in India at the end of 2020, delta strain has swept the world and has become the main strain in many regions. The world famous authoritative journal Nature published two articles on July 21 and 28 to introduce the risk of this strain.

The article published on the 21st is the research of Guangzhou CDC on the first batch of delta variant cases in China. The researchers said that people carrying the delta variant would detect the virus four days after exposure to the virus, while those carrying the original strain would take six days, indicating that the replication speed of the delta variant is much faster. The difference between the two in virus load (an index to measure the density of virus particles in the body) is closely related to this. Research shows that the virus load of delta variant cases is 1260 times higher than that of the original strain cases, so it is easier to spread.

COVID-19 animation with cell fusion   Source: Nature

The article in nature on the 28th pointed out that there were more mutations in the S protein of delta variant than other variants, which improved the binding ability of S protein to receptors on cell membrane and strengthened the ability of virus to escape the immune system. However, the article also said that the current scientific community’s understanding of COVID-19 is still superficial, and it is not easy to keep pace with the mutation of the virus.

This month, a new study reported that delta variants proliferate faster and have higher levels in human lungs and throat. There is no final conclusion about this phenomenon, which is also the direction of many experiments.

More attention from the observer network: the thorny math problem behind group immunization: BTG: surveys show that COVID-19 has led to an increase in concern about electronic waste. Bloomberg: more than 30% Britons have deleted the new crown tracking App, the National Bureau of Statistics: research shows that new crown prevention measures deserve respect: WHO: 10% of the world’s population or infected with COVID-19, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: Global The total weight of COVID-19, which has accumulated more than 1.7 billion people, is between 0.22 and 22 pounds. JAMA Opthalmology: the study found that wearing glasses every day could significantly reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection. Nature: research shows that 5-9 year old children have the lowest risk of new crown death. American CDC: nearly 10% of the new crown patients are re hospitalized within two months after discharge: AppAnnie: a deep analysis of COVID-19 pairs. The impact of the global mobile economy on the COVID-19 epidemic causes 40% of the earth’s population to be segregated at home. Johns Hopkins University: the average incubation period of COVID-19 caused by COVID-19 is 5.1 days. 86% of COVID-19’s early infections have not been recorded. WHO: research shows that wearing a mask can greatly reduce the spread of COVID-19 due to the global trend of COVID-19. BlackRock revised its global outlook for 2020: abandon “moderate risk” and turn to “neutral”

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